Drz1111 Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Also, there is a rear inflow jet notch literally pointed at Manhattan. Y'all are nuts to call a skunk right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rock888 Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Apparently there was a fairly strong Tornado spawned by this MCS in upstate NY (check their page for some damage photos). This setup kind of reminds me of 07/18/97 where there was a long lived MCS that tracked mostly through PA and caused widespread damage and 60+ wind gusts in NYC metro area. We'll see if this thing holds up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Also, there is a rear inflow jet notch literally pointed at Manhattan. Y'all are nuts to call a skunk right now. I wasn't calling for a skunk at all. I am curious to see what happens with the heat island as the storms head through. Otherwise I think this has the best chance of regoin wide severe so far this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Any chance the marine layer screws this up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I wasn't calling for a skunk at all. I am curious to see what happens with the heat island as the storms head through. Otherwise I think this has the best chance of regoin wide severe so far this season Oh god, that stupid article again. It's the dumb thesis that will never die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Just now, Cfa said: Any chance the marine layer screws this up? No marine layer in this case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, Rock888 said: Apparently there was a fairly strong Tornado spawned by this MCS in upstate NY (check their page for some damage photos). This setup kind of reminds me of 07/18/97 where there was a long lived MCS that tracked mostly through PA and caused widespread damage and 60+ wind gusts in NYC metro area. We'll see if this thing holds up as well. Yeah widespread 65-70 mph gusts here with that storm. This line seems to be weakening but we'll see if it can pulse back up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Meh. It's starting to weaken and it indeed looks like NYC is going to get split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Current temp 90/DP 68/RH 48% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rock888 Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 WTF why is it weakening? It hasn't even hit the ocean yet. Maybe it will pulse back up, we certainly have the moisture in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 1 minute ago, NortheastPAWx said: Meh. It's starting to weaken and it indeed looks like NYC is going to get split. Right on cue, probably nothing more than a brief heavy shower. Severe weather around here is non-existent. I've seen more t-storms during the winter months than summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Philly and S NJ are going to get the best again. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 That line is not weakening. Do you guys see the big area of 50mph+ wind pointed at NYC? That is the rear inflow jet behind the MCV being forced to the ground. That's what makes the reflectivity look weaker, but that's a sign of a strong line that can potentially put down a wide area of wind damage. It's not as sexy as the bow down around Allentown but it's just as likely (or more) to verify severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 20, 2017 Author Share Posted July 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Yea some legit wind here A fierce storm swept the region this afternoon, causing widespread emergency calls and knocking out the Susquehanna County 911 Center. Anyone needing emergency assistance in Susquehanna County should go to their nearest fire department or call state police directly at 570-465-3154. By 5:40 p.m., PPL Electric Utilities reported 1,939 customers were without power in Lackawanna County. The largest outage concentrations included about 725 households without power in Scranton, 863 households in Archbald and 543 households in Clarks Summit. Meanwhile, Lackawanna County 911 center received numerous calls about incidents such as downed trees. Dispatchers sent fire crews to a home on Greenfield Road in Carbondale Twp. for a report of a lightning strike about 5:43 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: No marine layer in this case Yeah I'm at the beach right now. Not your typical ripping onshore winds and cool temps we usually have here before an MCS. So if anything screws this up this time it's not the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Watch the portion of the line that runs from I-80 to the NY/NJ border to possibly re-strengthen. It got disrupted on the initial bowing/reorganization of the line but it still has significant forward speed to it and could re-fire moving into unstable air...at least for the next 45 mins over NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: That line is not weakening. Do you guys see the big area of 50mph+ wind pointed at NYC? That is the rear inflow jet behind the MCV being forced to the ground. That's what makes the reflectivity look weaker, but that's a sign of a strong line that can potentially put down a wide area of wind damage. It's not as sexy as the bow down around Allentown but it's just as likely (or more) to verify severe. It's falling apart dude probably not even going to see thunder around the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 30 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: No marine layer in this case 19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah I'm at the beach right now. Not your typical ripping onshore winds and cool temps we usually have here before an MCS. So if anything screws this up this time it's not the ocean It felt like it a short while ago, it got cloudy here with winds gusting from the south. Still mostly cloudy but no ripping onshore winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Just now, Cfa said: It felt like it a short while ago, it got cloudy here with winds gusting from the south. Not the case anymore. Doesn't make a difference at this point. Looks tame for areas east of Newark. Breezy with some rain unless there's some strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Warlock is going to be the only one to see anything good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Warlock is going to be the only one to see anything good Even that area doesn't look all that impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Another storm fail for the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rock888 Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 One disappointment after another this season. However, last year we didn't really see much until July 25 and after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 20, 2017 Author Share Posted July 20, 2017 41 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah I'm at the beach right now. Not your typical ripping onshore winds and cool temps we usually have here before an MCS. So if anything screws this up this time it's not the ocean I think it may have been the WNW downslope flow with the lower dews around Newark today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Get in your basement!! NJZ004-006-105>108-NYZ074-075-210030- Hudson-Eastern Union-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Western Essex-Eastern Passaic-Richmond (Staten Is.)-Kings (Brooklyn)- 744 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HUDSON...EASTERN PASSAIC...UNION...ESSEX...RICHMOND AND KINGS COUNTIES... At 743 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Fairfield to near White House Station. Movement was southeast at 45 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think it may have been the WNW downslope flow with the lower dews around Newark today. It's the mid level lapse rates and outrunning the forcing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Get in your basement!! NJZ004-006-105>108-NYZ074-075-210030- Hudson-Eastern Union-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Western Essex-Eastern Passaic-Richmond (Staten Is.)-Kings (Brooklyn)- 744 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HUDSON...EASTERN PASSAIC...UNION...ESSEX...RICHMOND AND KINGS COUNTIES... At 743 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Fairfield to near White House Station. Movement was southeast at 45 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Get in your basement!! NJZ004-006-105>108-NYZ074-075-210030- Hudson-Eastern Union-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Western Essex-Eastern Passaic-Richmond (Staten Is.)-Kings (Brooklyn)- 744 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HUDSON...EASTERN PASSAIC...UNION...ESSEX...RICHMOND AND KINGS COUNTIES... At 743 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Fairfield to near White House Station. Movement was southeast at 45 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 20, 2017 Share Posted July 20, 2017 Wow that really fell apart. It's unbelievably hot and sticky in wantagh right now. If we get through this with drizzle again I give up on severe around here except for the occasional warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted July 21, 2017 Share Posted July 21, 2017 Guess we have to wait till FEB for any severe around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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