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July 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Nice breeze currently here at jones beach. I really hope that MCS survives. The fact that SPC only had us in general thunderstorms doesn't look good but then again when we are in slight risk severe it never seems to work out. The mid west got slammed with a derecho yesterday so let's see what happens 

The HRRR has been consistent on a 2330-01Z arrival.  It does weaken it as it comes across.  I find usually lines that come from the NNW are usually more likely to hold together for NYC/LI then W-E movers.

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There are towering CU going up over NE Jersey as-is.  Given that, I find it hard to believe that, with the additional forcing from the cold pool, we wont have enough instability to support the line later tonight.

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8 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

There are towering CU going up over NE Jersey as-is.  Given that, I find it hard to believe that, with the additional forcing from the cold pool, we wont have enough instability to support the line later tonight.

The only question at this point is if the complex right turns a bit more than expected and goes more over NJ than NYC/WRN-CNTRL LI.  I could see that possibly happening.

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The worst part of that hook went right over my uncles country house in pa where I'm going this weekend. House is on top of a ridge at 1900'. Will post pics of damage when I'm up there. 

As far as here, it's very very warm and muggy at the beach with not much wind. I think this thing survives to the coast

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The worst part of that hook went right over my uncles country house in pa where I'm going this weekend. House is on top of a ridge at 1900'. Will post pics of damage when I'm up there. 

As far as here, it's very very warm and muggy at the beach with not much wind. I think this thing survives to the coast



I was in much of it in fact, I'm lost in central NY until I just got cell reception now. See pics!be07b67f1fefcb23b262054594161b16.jpg255e28b5cbb531abfef5314cd2ec50c6.jpg

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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3 minutes ago, seanick said:

Looks like the line is splitting. New York City may end up in the middle of two cells.

Too early to know.  I think what may happen is a secondary bowing segment may form out of that piece near High Point and come across WChester and LI.  If I had to guess right now, the split, if it occurred may be slightly SW of the 5 boroughs

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Too early to know.  I think what may happen is a secondary bowing segment may form out of that piece near High Point and come across WChester and LI.  If I had to guess right now, the split, if it occurred may be slightly SW of the 5 boroughs

HRRR shows that outcome as well. I am looking to get some lightning photos. Maybe I will head south a bit instead of my usual spot in Jersey City

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come on guys.  The MCV is headed right for the Bronx.   We're not going to have the strong bow-type winds from the southern part of the line but we're otherwise going to get smoked.  this isn't a split situation.  Hell, there might be some interesting weak spinny stuff on the meso-warm front that's going to pass over westchesterish.

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