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July 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This looks like one of our strongest July backdoors in a while. Not often that afternoon temps are around 20 degrees or more lower the next day.

62 here.  If temps go nowhere, we'll be close to 30 degrees cooler than yesterday's 91 at BDR.  Impressive.

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14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

62 here.  If temps go nowhere, we'll be close to 30 degrees cooler than yesterday's 91 at BDR.  Impressive.

Very impressive wet firehouse jet pattern continues between the +NAO PV, Western/Central Ridge, and WAR just to our east. Could be the first +2 daily NAO for July if the GFS is correct.  But we may top out in the +1.75 to +2.00 range which is the record highest for July.

 

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.2a4e1892d27815f4f83a42cc7105bfa5.gif

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Rain gauges as well IMO

I used a 4" plastic weather channel rain gauge and an 8" rain wise tipping bucket one...The 4" gauge was around 5% more most of the time especially in lighter rains...I used the 4" one for snowfall water equivalent...

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16 hours ago, Isotherm said:

95.5F today here. Very impressive for my location. Hottest day of the summer. Up to 12 90F days. The idea that July would be the hottest month of the summer relative to normal in the Northeast still looks good to me.

And still not THAT hot...probably looking at a +1 to +1.5 type of month.

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3 minutes ago, nzucker said:

And still not THAT hot...probably looking at a +1 to +1.5 type of month.

However, i am still on pace for the same number of 90 degree days as last summer. its been either very hot, or cool

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44 minutes ago, psv88 said:

However, i am still on pace for the same number of 90 degree days as last summer. its been either very hot, or cool

May was like that, too. We had around 20 days with negative departures and then 3 days that were +20 (including LGA hitting 101F) that muted the negative anomaly.

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Pretty much the inverse of winter with the warmest departures around Montana.

MonthTDeptUS.png.29f103be2d79f11047188e38205427ff.png

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A lot of the Mountain West has been warm, but Montana especially has had some very hot days this month.  Numerous stations reporting 100+ in the Great Plains portion of the state this afternoon.

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22 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

A lot of the Mountain West has been warm, but Montana especially has had some very hot days this month.  Numerous stations reporting 100+ in the Great Plains portion of the state this afternoon.

I will give the SST CA credit for getting that big Western ridge pattern correct on the May forecast. Funny how it can do great with The US bit miss in the Arctic. I guess the US pattern was easier to get right due to the NP SST pattern.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing/

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39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I will give the SST CA credit for getting that big Western ridge pattern correct on the May forecast. Funny how it can do great with The US bit miss in the Arctic. I guess the US pattern was easier to get right due to the NP SST pattern.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing/

cahgt_anom.0.gif.16a0c16a9497ef0d1cbd9bb33ffb1108.gif

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It did well indeed.  Interesting how the pattern from Winter to Spring and into Summer played out this year.

23 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

1.52

Not as much as last week, but still a good soaking rain.  Most of it fell throughout the course of the morning.

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1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

It did well indeed.  Interesting how the pattern from Winter to Spring and into Summer played out this year.

Not as much as last week, but still a good soaking rain.  Most of it fell throughout the course of the morning.

Great Falls, MT went from the 10th coldest winter on record to the 3rd warmest July so far.

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21 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive wet firehouse jet pattern continues between the +NAO PV, Western/Central Ridge, and WAR just to our east. Could be the first +2 daily NAO for July if the GFS is correct.  But we may top out in the +1.75 to +2.00 range which is the record highest for July.

 

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.2a4e1892d27815f4f83a42cc7105bfa5.gif

 

 

 

 

Are there any analogs for a super high +NAO for July? Looks like the jet stream is also heading further north.

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...should be a heck of a beach day today..plenty of sun with light winds..seabreeze will kick 

in this afternoon..ocean water temps approaching 70*,waves will be 3' or less making swimming in the 

ocean delightful..

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Next 8 days to be +8degs. (84 vs. 76).   If so, we will be +3.4degs. for the month, by the morning of the 24th.

This looks suspicious since long range CFS has northeast in the icebox for about 30 days 7/20---8/20, then a heatwave at end of Aug.

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