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July 2017 Discussion


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42 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Enjoyed the last day of pleasant conditions with dews generally in the lower 60s.  

Here's what the 18z GFS shows for peak dews this week for here.  Gonna get sweaty.

Tue 76
Wed 80
Thu 79
Fri 80
Sat 82

Would hate to have a leather interior if I lived out there, you'd melt to the seat.

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45 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Enjoyed the last day of pleasant conditions with dews generally in the lower 60s.  

Here's what the 18z GFS shows for peak dews this week for here.  Gonna get sweaty.

Tue 76
Wed 80
Thu 79
Fri 80
Sat 82

 

balls.jpg

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6 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

APX had a great shot of the Northern Lights the other night. I tried to stay up to view but did not get going until late. 

 

 

 

Here's a picture from Facebook of the bridge. The post said that they didn't really get going until about 3 AM

 

636358718195137189-Capture.PNG

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44 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

1.1" of rain and a lightening strike 10' from the house. literally sh*t myself... never a dull moment!

IMG_2540.JPG.e1b96acc7048df701c7fcf24506b5c7f.JPG

Damn, if that happened to me, I would have been patching the hole in my ceiling as I would have jumped out of the chair I was in. That certainly beats the strike I saw about an 1/6th of a mile away back in April. That was so loud and the ground shook so violently when it hit behind the other tower to my south.

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32 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Damn, if that happened to me, I would have been patching the hole in my ceiling as I would have jumped out of the chair I was in. That certainly beats the strike I saw about an 1/6th of a mile away back in April. That was so loud and the ground shook so violently when it hit behind the other tower to my south.

Not to be too dramatic, but it felt like a bomb went off. I was probably 20' away standing at a window watching the storm and it knocked me back a few steps.  Somewhere in my mind for a hair of second, I did think a bomb blew up. My poor cat farted (never heard a cat fart before)and pissed herself, and has been hiding since.  I don't know if she's scared or embarrassed, so I'll let her be.

Even tho it didn't hit my house, several led bulbs that were on actually started flickering and smoking.  Replaced the bulbs and the lights seem fine.

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28 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Ahh man, that's what we were hoping to see down here lol.

I remember the one in 2003 I think it was. Was even able to see it in LAF.

Another 1859 type event would be cool to see.  Not good for electronics though.

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27 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I remember the one in 2003 I think it was. Was even able to see it in LAF.

Another 1859 type event would be cool to see.  Not good for electronics though.

That one was awesome.  It was right overhead.  Never seen it pulse the way it was as well.  Looked like it was alive.

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2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Not to be too dramatic, but it felt like a bomb went off. I was probably 20' away standing at a window watching the storm and it knocked me back a few steps.  Somewhere in my mind for a hair of second, I did think a bomb blew up. My poor cat farted (never heard a cat fart before)and pissed herself, and has been hiding since.  I don't know if she's scared or embarrassed, so I'll let her be.

Even tho it didn't hit my house, several led bulbs that were on actually started flickering and smoking.  Replaced the bulbs and the lights seem fine.

Haha, that isn't dramatic, that is probably what would have happened to me. Poor cat though, must have been rough for her.

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

We got a nice surprise this evening.  An MCV tracking across the state lit up with storms and dumped some good rain across a solid area.  I picked up a nice 0.64".  Iowa City picked up 1-2".

Wow.  You gotta be killing me in the rainfall department since early June.  How much have you had since June 1st?  3.99" here (2.50 June/ 1.49 July).

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11 minutes ago, Spartman said:

Temps overachieved a bit, topping out at 89. Highest temperature of this month and have a feeling it's going to be the highest I'll get for this July unless temps at least overachieve enough over the next few days.

 

ILN has 90+ in the forecast for Dayton for the next 4 days, so temps really won't have to overachieve.

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11 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Wow.  You gotta be killing me in the rainfall department since early June.  How much have you had since June 1st?  3.99" here (2.50 June/ 1.49 July).

6.77" here (3.47 June/ 3.30 July), so yeah, I've been much more fortunate than you.  I'm glad we got the rain last evening because models are keeping much of the rain north the rest of the week.  Des Moines and Ottumwa may not get a drop, and they really need it.

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9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

 

ILN has 90+ in the forecast for Dayton for the next 4 days, so temps really won't have to overachieve.

Unless we're thinking of temps overachieving what TWC is showing. TWC's already cut back on temps a bit overnight for today and at least tomorrow. :lol:

Not to mention about likely keeping 89 yesterday as the highest temperature of this month thanks to some MCS's and possible interfering cloud cover at times over the next few days.
 

000
FXUS61 KILN 191044
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
644 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will lead to the chance for thunderstorms
at times through the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mostly clear skies are in place across the region this morning
and with light surface winds, we should see some areas of fog
persist through daybreak, especially in the southern river
valleys. Otherwise, mid level ridging will nose into our area
from the southwest through this afternoon. Low level thermal
fields are fairly similar to what we saw on Tuesday so expect
highs today once again in the upper 80s to lower 90s. This will
combine with dewpoints of around 70 degrees to produce heat
indicies in the middle 90s this afternoon.

Forecast soundings off both the NAM and GFS are showing some
warming in the lower levels and this may serve as a weak cap
through much of the day. That being said, it will still be
tough to rule out an isolated pop up shower or thunderstorm
anywhere across our area this afternoon. It does look like
there may be a slightly better chance across our northwest where
some weak energy aloft will work down toward our area this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Any lingering shower or thunderstorm activity should again
taper off this evening, leaving mostly clear skies overnight. An
overnight MCS will likely drop down across the upper
Mississippi Valley and toward our area through the early morning
hours. The models are in general agreement dissipating the pcpn
associated with this before it reaches our area. However it
will create some uncertainty for the forecast through the
remainder of the day as there could be some lingering cloud
cover and/or some sort of outflow boundary from it that makes it
onto our area. For now though, the models are still suggesting
a bit of a bump up in low level thermal fields through the day
compared to Wednesday. Because of the uncertainty though, for
now will just range highs from near 90 in the northeast to the
lower 90s across the southwest. This will again combine with
dewpoints in the lower 70s to produce heat indices in the upper
90s to around 100 degrees through the afternoon hours. This
will also lead to good instability through the afternoon hours
with the possibility of some thunderstorms to our north feeding
south into the instability late in the day across our north.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday night mid level ridging will be centered over the central
United States with an upper level low over the Hudson Bay. The same
cold front which models have so struggled to get the placement with
is now forecasted to stall out around the Michigan/ Ohio border
before pulling east. Thursday night the boundary is forecast to be
just south of the border with convection likely firing along the
front. There will be many factors in play here though as left over
convection west of region Thursday morning will likely leave a
leftover boundary near the region Thursday night. Predicting the
exact mesoscale layout this far in advance is very difficult and
therefore have just nudged PoPs up at this time. It also should be
noted that at 500 mb a potent short wave will rotating around the
top of the ridge with SFC to 6 km shear values near 40 kts in
central Ohio. Even though the best instability remains south of the
shear there is enough overlap to where some of the storms could
become strong to severe. Given this, SPC has placed the northern
counties of our forecast area in a slight risk for Day 2.

During the day Friday mid level ridging begins to flatten a bit as
the quasi-stationary low that was over North Carolina begins to
retrograde undercutting the ridge. Again, models have continued to
struggle here with how this feature ejects. Friday afternoon
forecast soundings again completely destabilize with ML CAPE values
mostly above 2000 J/kg. Heat indicies Thursday through Saturday will
also be a concern as high temperatures will regularly be around 90 to
lower 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. The main question mark
with heat index values will be whether or not convection gets going
and holds down high temperatures at all. Have gone ahead and edged
down high temperatures ever so slightly Friday afternoon due to the
threat of convection.

Saturday the mid level ridge that was over the central United States
this week will start to collapse as the upper level low continues to
pull west/ retrograde. PWATs do come down a little Saturday (around
1.5") but have continued to advertise slightly higher PoPs Saturday
compared to Friday given the weakening mid level ridge.

During the day Sunday an upper level low will dive southeast towards
the Great Lakes with ILN moving into a RRQ. By Monday morning a
surface cold front will begin to work southeast and approach the
Ohio/ Indiana border. Ahead of the front the RRQ from the upper
level jet streak, increased moisture, and ample instability means
PoPs will likely need to continue to be nudged upwards as timing of
the short wave gets nailed down. The ECMWF remains quicker than the
GFS and pushes the front through the area Monday morning while the
GFS pushes the front through the area Monday evening. Behind the
cold front, surface high pressure will build into the region
allowing for slightly below normal temperatures and more pleasant
feeling air Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Areas of MVFR and locally IFR fog have developed across the
area this morning. This fog should quickly dissipate by mid
morning, leaving partly cloudy skies across the region. An area
of showers and thunderstorms over eastern Illinois is
associated with a mid level short wave that is forecast to push
southeast and weaken through early this afternoon, with the
pcpn associated with it remaining to our southwest.

Otherwise, as we destabilize through this afternoon, a few pop
up showers or thunderstorms can not be ruled out but the chance
appears low enough to leave a mention out of the TAFs. Any
activity should quickly taper off this evening, leaving mainly
clear skies for the overnight period. This will likely lead to
areas of mainly MVFR fog again later tonight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday through Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Haines
AVIATION...JGL

 

TWC10day.jpg

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51 minutes ago, Spartman said:

Unless we're thinking of temps overachieving what TWC is showing. TWC's already cut back on temps a bit overnight for today and at least tomorrow. :lol:

Not to mention about likely keeping 89 yesterday as the highest temperature of this month thanks to some MCS's and possible interfering cloud cover at times over the next few days.
 


000
FXUS61 KILN 191044
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
644 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will lead to the chance for thunderstorms
at times through the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mostly clear skies are in place across the region this morning
and with light surface winds, we should see some areas of fog
persist through daybreak, especially in the southern river
valleys. Otherwise, mid level ridging will nose into our area
from the southwest through this afternoon. Low level thermal
fields are fairly similar to what we saw on Tuesday so expect
highs today once again in the upper 80s to lower 90s. This will
combine with dewpoints of around 70 degrees to produce heat
indicies in the middle 90s this afternoon.

Forecast soundings off both the NAM and GFS are showing some
warming in the lower levels and this may serve as a weak cap
through much of the day. That being said, it will still be
tough to rule out an isolated pop up shower or thunderstorm
anywhere across our area this afternoon. It does look like
there may be a slightly better chance across our northwest where
some weak energy aloft will work down toward our area this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Any lingering shower or thunderstorm activity should again
taper off this evening, leaving mostly clear skies overnight. An
overnight MCS will likely drop down across the upper
Mississippi Valley and toward our area through the early morning
hours. The models are in general agreement dissipating the pcpn
associated with this before it reaches our area. However it
will create some uncertainty for the forecast through the
remainder of the day as there could be some lingering cloud
cover and/or some sort of outflow boundary from it that makes it
onto our area. For now though, the models are still suggesting
a bit of a bump up in low level thermal fields through the day
compared to Wednesday. Because of the uncertainty though, for
now will just range highs from near 90 in the northeast to the
lower 90s across the southwest. This will again combine with
dewpoints in the lower 70s to produce heat indices in the upper
90s to around 100 degrees through the afternoon hours. This
will also lead to good instability through the afternoon hours
with the possibility of some thunderstorms to our north feeding
south into the instability late in the day across our north.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday night mid level ridging will be centered over the central
United States with an upper level low over the Hudson Bay. The same
cold front which models have so struggled to get the placement with
is now forecasted to stall out around the Michigan/ Ohio border
before pulling east. Thursday night the boundary is forecast to be
just south of the border with convection likely firing along the
front. There will be many factors in play here though as left over
convection west of region Thursday morning will likely leave a
leftover boundary near the region Thursday night. Predicting the
exact mesoscale layout this far in advance is very difficult and
therefore have just nudged PoPs up at this time. It also should be
noted that at 500 mb a potent short wave will rotating around the
top of the ridge with SFC to 6 km shear values near 40 kts in
central Ohio. Even though the best instability remains south of the
shear there is enough overlap to where some of the storms could
become strong to severe. Given this, SPC has placed the northern
counties of our forecast area in a slight risk for Day 2.

During the day Friday mid level ridging begins to flatten a bit as
the quasi-stationary low that was over North Carolina begins to
retrograde undercutting the ridge. Again, models have continued to
struggle here with how this feature ejects. Friday afternoon
forecast soundings again completely destabilize with ML CAPE values
mostly above 2000 J/kg. Heat indicies Thursday through Saturday will
also be a concern as high temperatures will regularly be around 90 to
lower 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. The main question mark
with heat index values will be whether or not convection gets going
and holds down high temperatures at all. Have gone ahead and edged
down high temperatures ever so slightly Friday afternoon due to the
threat of convection.

Saturday the mid level ridge that was over the central United States
this week will start to collapse as the upper level low continues to
pull west/ retrograde. PWATs do come down a little Saturday (around
1.5") but have continued to advertise slightly higher PoPs Saturday
compared to Friday given the weakening mid level ridge.

During the day Sunday an upper level low will dive southeast towards
the Great Lakes with ILN moving into a RRQ. By Monday morning a
surface cold front will begin to work southeast and approach the
Ohio/ Indiana border. Ahead of the front the RRQ from the upper
level jet streak, increased moisture, and ample instability means
PoPs will likely need to continue to be nudged upwards as timing of
the short wave gets nailed down. The ECMWF remains quicker than the
GFS and pushes the front through the area Monday morning while the
GFS pushes the front through the area Monday evening. Behind the
cold front, surface high pressure will build into the region
allowing for slightly below normal temperatures and more pleasant
feeling air Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Areas of MVFR and locally IFR fog have developed across the
area this morning. This fog should quickly dissipate by mid
morning, leaving partly cloudy skies across the region. An area
of showers and thunderstorms over eastern Illinois is
associated with a mid level short wave that is forecast to push
southeast and weaken through early this afternoon, with the
pcpn associated with it remaining to our southwest.

Otherwise, as we destabilize through this afternoon, a few pop
up showers or thunderstorms can not be ruled out but the chance
appears low enough to leave a mention out of the TAFs. Any
activity should quickly taper off this evening, leaving mainly
clear skies for the overnight period. This will likely lead to
areas of mainly MVFR fog again later tonight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday through Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Haines
AVIATION...JGL

 

TWC10day.jpg

Lol TWC 

 

That extended is going to change every 15 minutes... never put much stock into those.

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Unless we're thinking of temps overachieving what TWC is showing. TWC's already cut back on temps a bit overnight for today and at least tomorrow. :lol:

 

Not to mention about likely keeping 89 yesterday as the highest temperature of this month thanks to some MCS's and possible interfering cloud cover at times over the next few days.

 

 

 

000FXUS61 KILN 191044AFDILNArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Wilmington OH644 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017.SYNOPSIS...Hot and humid conditions will lead to the chance for thunderstormsat times through the rest of the week.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...Mostly clear skies are in place across the region this morningand with light surface winds, we should see some areas of fogpersist through daybreak, especially in the southern rivervalleys. Otherwise, mid level ridging will nose into our areafrom the southwest through this afternoon. Low level thermalfields are fairly similar to what we saw on Tuesday so expecthighs today once again in the upper 80s to lower 90s. This willcombine with dewpoints of around 70 degrees to produce heatindicies in the middle 90s this afternoon.Forecast soundings off both the NAM and GFS are showing somewarming in the lower levels and this may serve as a weak capthrough much of the day. That being said, it will still betough to rule out an isolated pop up shower or thunderstormanywhere across our area this afternoon. It does look likethere may be a slightly better chance across our northwest wheresome weak energy aloft will work down toward our area thisafternoon.&&.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...Any lingering shower or thunderstorm activity should againtaper off this evening, leaving mostly clear skies overnight. Anovernight MCS will likely drop down across the upperMississippi Valley and toward our area through the early morninghours. The models are in general agreement dissipating the pcpnassociated with this before it reaches our area. However itwill create some uncertainty for the forecast through theremainder of the day as there could be some lingering cloudcover and/or some sort of outflow boundary from it that makes itonto our area. For now though, the models are still suggestinga bit of a bump up in low level thermal fields through the daycompared to Wednesday. Because of the uncertainty though, fornow will just range highs from near 90 in the northeast to thelower 90s across the southwest. This will again combine withdewpoints in the lower 70s to produce heat indices in the upper90s to around 100 degrees through the afternoon hours. Thiswill also lead to good instability through the afternoon hourswith the possibility of some thunderstorms to our north feedingsouth into the instability late in the day across our north.&&.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...Thursday night mid level ridging will be centered over the centralUnited States with an upper level low over the Hudson Bay. The samecold front which models have so struggled to get the placement withis now forecasted to stall out around the Michigan/ Ohio borderbefore pulling east. Thursday night the boundary is forecast to bejust south of the border with convection likely firing along thefront. There will be many factors in play here though as left overconvection west of region Thursday morning will likely leave aleftover boundary near the region Thursday night. Predicting theexact mesoscale layout this far in advance is very difficult andtherefore have just nudged PoPs up at this time. It also should benoted that at 500 mb a potent short wave will rotating around thetop of the ridge with SFC to 6 km shear values near 40 kts incentral Ohio. Even though the best instability remains south of theshear there is enough overlap to where some of the storms couldbecome strong to severe. Given this, SPC has placed the northerncounties of our forecast area in a slight risk for Day 2.During the day Friday mid level ridging begins to flatten a bit asthe quasi-stationary low that was over North Carolina begins toretrograde undercutting the ridge. Again, models have continued tostruggle here with how this feature ejects. Friday afternoonforecast soundings again completely destabilize with ML CAPE valuesmostly above 2000 J/kg. Heat indicies Thursday through Saturday willalso be a concern as high temperatures will regularly be around 90 tolower 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. The main question markwith heat index values will be whether or not convection gets goingand holds down high temperatures at all. Have gone ahead and edgeddown high temperatures ever so slightly Friday afternoon due to thethreat of convection.Saturday the mid level ridge that was over the central United Statesthis week will start to collapse as the upper level low continues topull west/ retrograde. PWATs do come down a little Saturday (around1.5") but have continued to advertise slightly higher PoPs Saturdaycompared to Friday given the weakening mid level ridge.During the day Sunday an upper level low will dive southeast towardsthe Great Lakes with ILN moving into a RRQ. By Monday morning asurface cold front will begin to work southeast and approach theOhio/ Indiana border. Ahead of the front the RRQ from the upperlevel jet streak, increased moisture, and ample instability meansPoPs will likely need to continue to be nudged upwards as timing ofthe short wave gets nailed down. The ECMWF remains quicker than theGFS and pushes the front through the area Monday morning while theGFS pushes the front through the area Monday evening. Behind thecold front, surface high pressure will build into the regionallowing for slightly below normal temperatures and more pleasantfeeling air Tuesday.&&.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Areas of MVFR and locally IFR fog have developed across thearea this morning. This fog should quickly dissipate by midmorning, leaving partly cloudy skies across the region. An areaof showers and thunderstorms over eastern Illinois isassociated with a mid level short wave that is forecast to pushsoutheast and weaken through early this afternoon, with thepcpn associated with it remaining to our southwest.Otherwise, as we destabilize through this afternoon, a few popup showers or thunderstorms can not be ruled out but the chanceappears low enough to leave a mention out of the TAFs. Anyactivity should quickly taper off this evening, leaving mainlyclear skies for the overnight period. This will likely lead toareas of mainly MVFR fog again later tonight.OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday through Sunday.&&.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...OH...None.KY...None.IN...None.&&$$SYNOPSIS...JGLNEAR TERM...JGLSHORT TERM...JGLLONG TERM...HainesAVIATION...JGL

 

 

TWC10day.thumb.jpg.911aa3e99ba4596a875f1d6496c78ead.jpg

 

 

You're either a fool or tolling hard.

 

I just can't decipher which right now.

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Currently at 76 in debris clouds. TWC's done a good job on yesterday and has already done away on the 90s, not just for this week but the remainder of this month. NWS already reduced today's and tomorrow's highs to the upper 80s and will likely do the same for Saturday, as well. Next month or two, please.

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