July 2017 Discussion

[SchaumburgStormer]

11 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Solid summer storm working through now. Torrential rain with gusty winds

.86" of rain in 15 minutes 

[Spartman]

On 7/5/2017 at 2:53 PM, michsnowfreak said:

We have been in a warm stretch for since late 2015. Prior to that we were in a cool stretch (Feb 2013 - Mar 2017 DTW had 25 AN months and 25 BN months). Im sure you were being facetious but it does not take record blocking to get BN temps lol. Looking at computerized monthly outlooks for the next several months, nothing extreme either way (doesnt mean it cant happen though).

 

Im summer I really dont care. I always prefer cooler than normal but it does not make or break my day regardless how the weather is. A notable trend (which has to do with both humidity and Urban Heat Island) is that summer overnight low temps are increasing much more than high temps. This summer has been for the most part comfortable here, and very likely could end up below the average amount of 90s but with a positive temp departure. Thats in no way a forecast btw. Just saying. There has actually been no real impressive heat here locally and there is none in sight. We have had 3 days of 90F so far, all in June, max 92F.

I respect your opinion about the below-average number of 90-degree days expected this Summer. Only one 90 here, so far. Based what I am looking at on Gary's Weather2020 12-Week Forecast page, if you and I are looking for the next opportunities of 90-degree weather, we're better off waiting until sometime in August for anymore of those. Since the beginning of record-keeping for DAY, there has never been a Summer there when 90s were recorded exclusively in June. Earliest last 90 ever was on July 8, 1971. Definitely paying for last Summer. 

[Powerball]

So far, this Summer has basically been a cooler repeat of 2016.

It has been somewhat better on the convection / severe weather front, but that's not saying much following last year's disaster.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

So far, this Summer has basically been a cooler repeat of 2016.

It has been somewhat better on the convection / severe weather front, but that's not saying much following last year's disaster.

Convection yes, severe no. We have had a few decent storms but not much severe weather. Last year was actually doing better to this point.

[thomp2mp]

This spring/summer has been meh.

I think we've been under two TSTM watches, neither of which produced anything crazy. The long-range models don't look too promising either. 

Digging the low humidity attm because we just moved and our upstairs doesn't have a/c.

[hawkeye_wx]

It looked like we would get through this early to mid week unsettledness without seeing any rain.  The storms have been small and pretty isolated.  However, late this evening, storms fired up by Dubuque and rode the outflow boundary southwestward through Cedar Rapids.  There were a couple hail and wind damage reports along the way, but it was just rain here.  I was fortunate to pick up 0.59", more than enough to refill the empty rain barrel.  A station only a half mile to my nw received nearly twice that.

[cyclone77]

Could use some rain here.  Only 2.50" last month, and still nothing this month.  Tomorrow/tomorrow night doesn't look too promising either.  Several days in a row we had storms close enough to hear the thunder, but no rain.  Kind of frustrating.

[outflow]

7 hours ago, Spartman said:

 Based what I am looking at on Gary's Weather2020 12-Week Forecast page, if you and I are looking for the next opportunities of 90-degree weather, we're better off waiting until sometime in August for anymore of those

To quote Chicago storm: lol

[hlcater]

8 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It looked like we would get through this early to mid week unsettledness without seeing any rain.  The storms have been small and pretty isolated.  However, late this evening, storms fired up by Dubuque and rode the outflow boundary southwestward through Cedar Rapids.  There were a couple hail and wind damage reports along the way, but it was just rain here.  I was fortunate to pick up 0.59", more than enough to refill the empty rain barrel.  A station only a half mile to my nw received nearly twice that.

1.12 in Hiawatha in less than an hour, quite a pop up storm. I'll take it.

[Chicago Storm]

To quote Chicago storm: lol

Saved me from having to do it.

[Hoosier]

7 hours ago, outflow said:

To quote Chicago storm: lol

I never even heard of Garyweather 2020 or whatever.

Would be better off not even looking at these super long range forecasts.

[Powerball]

19 hours ago, Stebo said:

Convection yes, severe no. We have had a few decent storms but not much severe weather. Last year was actually doing better to this point.

Technically, severe weather is pretty much a wash compared to last year (6 reports in 2017 vs. 7 reports in 2016 to-date).

That said, I did say combined convection / severe weather. There was NO meaningful convection in the Tri-County area before the lone supercell that tracked along the I-94 corridor on 7/8/16. Heck, half of the wind reports in 2016 to-date were from a line of low-topped *showers* in March.

[cyclone77]

93 here today, 91 at MLI.  Tonight's system looks like a bust here, so looks to stay dry until at least late in the weekend.

[Indystorm]

I like the potential for ring of fire convection/severe chances for the upcoming week as the heat dome builds out to the west.  Could get interesting with multiple impulses.

[cyclone77]

Just now, Indystorm said:

I like the potential for ring of fire convection/severe chances for the upcoming week as the heat dome builds out to the west.  Could get interesting with multiple impulses.

Yeah looks promising.

[Powerball]

14 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah looks promising.

*Takes cyclone77's hand and knocks it on wood*

[Hoosier]

High of 93 at ORD, which ties for 2nd hottest so far this year.

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, Powerball said:

*Takes cyclone77's hand and knocks it on wood*

Get ready to watch all the better convection miss to your sw.  

[Chicago Storm]

High of 93 at ORD, which ties for 2nd hottest so far this year.

And 92 at MDW.

[smoof]

Very nice storm going a lil north of Oscoda MI rt now.

[Powerball]

21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Get ready to watch all the better convection miss to your sw.  

Or if today's any sign, to the NE...

In any event, I'll take my cirrostratus and like it. Surely, August will be rocking.

[Spartman]

Hoosier, the Weather2020 site is co-founded by the LRC inventor himself, Gary Lezak.

Topped out at 76, despite some evening sun, and also overperformed on today's rainfall amount with a total of 2.22 inches.

733
SXUS71 KILN 061911 RRA
RERDAY

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
0311 PM EDT THU JUL 06 2017

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT DAYTON OH...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.22 INCHES HAS BEEN SET AT THE COX DAYTON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF
1.91 INCHES SET BACK IN 1926.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT THE END OF THE DAY WITH A FINAL
RAINFALL TOTAL.

 

[Hoosier]

Pretty warm looking 00z ECMWF barring convective influences.

[cyclone77]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Pretty warm looking 00z ECMWF barring convective influences.

Yeah it sure does.  Has 105 degree heat for southeast Iowa next Wednesday lol.  

EDIT:  Interesting disco from DVN.  Either very hot, or very stormy depending on where the ROF largely sets up..

...The
NAM/GFS/GEM all are slightly farther west with the high pressure
ridge axis, and the corresponding edge of mid level heat. For that
reason, they are exceptionally stormy over our CWA for Sunday PM
through next weekend. The GFS keeps us in the battle zone with the
main 850mb heat dome only briefly into eastern Iowa Wednesday before
another backdoor cool front drops in for late week.

The pattern synoptically supports nightly strong MCS, with
progressive wind damage threats and training heavy rain threats. As
to whether this directly impacts out CWA or not cannot be certain
for several days.  The large scale differences are problematic,
given that they are not apparently due to convective feedback or
other easily diagnosed issue. The EC is just a shift in longitude
east with the same pattern as the GFS, but that forecast is
substantially hotter and drier than the GFS  deterministic forecast.
In any case, hot and humid weather be a certainty this upcoming
week, as both patterns support dewpoints of 70 to 75, and given a
boundary in the area, it could support dewpoints in near 80 this
time of the year. Combine that with temperatures in the upper 80s to
lower 90s, and we could have a forecast that will either tip towards
flooding, or dangerous heat. While that seems unusual, to have a
forecast seem a binary, it is actually normal for a ring-of-fire
pattern like we are expecting.

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah it sure does.  Has 105 degree heat for southeast Iowa next Wednesday lol.  

EDIT:  Interesting disco from DVN.  Either very hot, or very stormy depending on where the ROF largely sets up..

...The
NAM/GFS/GEM all are slightly farther west with the high pressure
ridge axis, and the corresponding edge of mid level heat. For that
reason, they are exceptionally stormy over our CWA for Sunday PM
through next weekend. The GFS keeps us in the battle zone with the
main 850mb heat dome only briefly into eastern Iowa Wednesday before
another backdoor cool front drops in for late week.

The pattern synoptically supports nightly strong MCS, with
progressive wind damage threats and training heavy rain threats. As
to whether this directly impacts out CWA or not cannot be certain
for several days.  The large scale differences are problematic,
given that they are not apparently due to convective feedback or
other easily diagnosed issue. The EC is just a shift in longitude
east with the same pattern as the GFS, but that forecast is
substantially hotter and drier than the GFS  deterministic forecast.
In any case, hot and humid weather be a certainty this upcoming
week, as both patterns support dewpoints of 70 to 75, and given a
boundary in the area, it could support dewpoints in near 80 this
time of the year. Combine that with temperatures in the upper 80s to
lower 90s, and we could have a forecast that will either tip towards
flooding, or dangerous heat. While that seems unusual, to have a
forecast seem a binary, it is actually normal for a ring-of-fire
pattern like we are expecting.

This is anecdotal but with this type of setup it seems like when convection has any excuse to blunt the north/east expansion of higher end heat, it often does so, unless you can establish overwhelming capping.  We'll have to see how this one works out.

[Hoosier]

45 minutes ago, CCM said:

Why does the GFS have such a severe cold bias, serious question... is it just some sort of computing error or having sampling issues?

It's been like this for years and the upgrades don't seem to be helping.

It tends to undermix the boundary layer, resulting in lower 2m temps and higher dewpoints than what verifies.  As for why it tends to do that, beats me.

[Stebo]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It tends to undermix the boundary layer, resulting in lower 2m temps and higher dewpoints than what verifies.  As for why it tends to do that, beats me.

Tends to undermix the mid levels with water loading the column as well.

[cyclone77]

Dews back down below 60.  Feels great.  Hit 88 for a high.

[cyclone77]

Forecast sounding from the GFS for early Monday evening near the QC.  8000J/kg cape.  Obviously overdone with the 82 dewpoint, but still impressive to see.

[Chicago Storm]

ORD got 89'd again today lol.

Only the 3rd time this year that has happened, which is not too bad.