Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 26, 2017 Share Posted June 26, 2017 Looks like at least in the Springfield area, a seasonal upcoming weekend to kick off July. NWS point and click for parts of the Springfield area (specifically Chatham) lists 82/64 for Saturday and 83/65 for Sunday, and a storm chance for Monday (and high 84). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 The GFS Brings the heat to areas just west of the subforum early next week, then slides it to just south of the subforum for late next week. Meanwhile, we stay seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 27, 2017 Share Posted June 27, 2017 3 hours ago, IWXwx said: The GFS Brings the heat to areas just west of the subforum early next week, then slides it to just south of the subforum for late next week. Meanwhile, we stay seasonal. Euro brings the heat northward, as the ridge flexes its muscles, I would tend to agree with the Euro. Not to mention the GFS has been bad for a while now, case in point how it handled Cindy especially at day 5 and beyond, for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 It looks like the Euro might be trying to cave. If we won't get anomalous heat or severe, I'm rooting for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 13 hours ago, IWXwx said: It looks like the Euro might be trying to cave. If we won't get anomalous heat or severe, I'm rooting for comfort. Looking through the long term... more of the same. Zonal flow - low pressure - cold front - upper level low for a few days - Wash, rinse, repeat. I didn't see one day through most of July where the western ridge finally makes its way east. We've been 2017'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 6 hours ago, Harry Perry said: Looking through the long term... more of the same. Zonal flow - low pressure - cold front - upper level low for a few days - Wash, rinse, repeat. I didn't see one day through most of July where the western ridge finally makes its way east. We've been 2017'd. Just wondering, what model were you looking at to see the dailies through most of July? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 28, 2017 Share Posted June 28, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Just wondering, what model were you looking at to see the dailies through most of July? I know not to put much stock into it, but was mainly looking at the CFS and some ECMWF as support at 850mb. I think it ran through July 20 and was definitely a roller coaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 I'm thinking July will be another roller coaster month like June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 15 minutes ago, Powerball said: I'm thinking July will be another roller coaster month like June. I agree. As for the above post saying a torch month for the entire country, I see zero support for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 The last time no 90s were recorded in the entire month of July was in 2014. Have a feeling we'll be watching for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 The last time no 90s were recorded in the entire month of July was in 2014. Have a feeling we'll be watching for that.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 43 minutes ago, Spartman said: The last time no 90s were recorded in the entire month of July was in 2014. Have a feeling we'll be watching for that. Do you have any reasoning behind this or just shooting at the dark like you always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 4 hours ago, CCM said: Lol, whatever helps you sleep at night man. My call for a warm June was spot on, unlike your call about February 2017 being cold and wintry a while back. LOL. First off I'm a climate buff not a forecaster. I probably mentioned our decade of unprecedented snowy Febs or whatever a model showed, or a gut instinct or a "probably leaning" but I don't forecast. You just say torch every month. The first few days of June you called for a nonstop inferno til July? LOL i have had the heat on in the car a few mornings this week. I said as a total guess June would probably finish within a degree of normal and it looks like it'll finish just over a degree above normal here. So what is your reasoning for a TORCH July when no model shows this? When I hear month longTORCH I expect at minimum a top 20 warmest month, more likely top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted June 29, 2017 Share Posted June 29, 2017 Every month starts with the same bickering between the two groups. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 4th of July looking spectacular for outdoor parties. Not too hot but warm enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 CPC hints at near-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation barely reaching Ohio and West Virginia for this July. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off15_prcp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 There have definitely been hints of an eastward ridge extension, but it's been getting delayed/muted. Could get a bona fide hot spell if it finally materializes at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 9 hours ago, Hoosier said: There have definitely been hints of an eastward ridge extension, but it's been getting delayed/muted. Could get a bona fide hot spell if it finally materializes at some point. With the most recent in 2014, there have been only 8 Julys since Dayton's records began in 1893 where no 90s were recorded the entire month. At this time, TWC only hints at days ranging at the low to mid-80s. No 90-degree days nor even any days in the upper 80s being forecasted for the first half of this July. As I mentioned somewhere in the June 2017 thread earlier last month, I can blame the multiple eruptions of Mount Bogoslof in Alaska (still occurring as of this past Thursday) that have started last December for this. I've recently discovered a post from Agweb (https://www.agweb.com/usfr/blog/the-weather-whisperer/blame-hot-volcanoes-for-the-cold-wet-early-winter/?BloggerId=268) that was published in January that the initial eruptions were expected to make this past Winter to have colder-than-normal with above-average precipitation. However since this Spring and ongoing to this very July, we're one of the regions that may be experiencing the delayed effects from the multiple eruptions of Bogoslof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 I'd need to see more evidence about this volcano having an influence. Besides, it's typically the volcanic eruptions in tropical latitudes that can have an impact on weather (I believe due to differences in the circulation in the stratosphere, but don't quote me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Huge, Pinatubo-size eruptions can certainly have an impact on global weather. However, Bogoslof is a mouse fart. It has erupted many times since December, but they are just brief puffs, a tiny fraction of what Pinatubo did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Getting a fairly nice shelf cloud from the garden variety t'storms approaching... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Dews down in the 50s with a fresh northwest breeze and lots of sun. Definitely making up for last summer when the high humidity was relentless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThisIsNotSparta Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Looking through the long term... more of the same. Zonal flow - low pressure - cold front - upper level low for a few days - Wash, rinse, repeat. I didn't see one day through most of July where the western ridge finally makes its way east. We've been 2017'd. When will summer arrive?Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 2, 2017 Share Posted July 2, 2017 Up in Michigan for the weekend. Crazy how the humidity essentially was shut off at the border, felt like someone left the shower on in Ohio as muggy as it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 2, 2017 Share Posted July 2, 2017 On 7/1/2017 at 3:49 AM, Spartman said: With the most recent in 2014, there have been only 8 Julys since Dayton's records began in 1893 where no 90s were recorded the entire month. At this time, TWC only hints at days ranging at the low to mid-80s. No 90-degree days nor even any days in the upper 80s being forecasted for the first half of this July. As I mentioned somewhere in the June 2017 thread earlier last month, I can blame the multiple eruptions of Mount Bogoslof in Alaska (still occurring as of this past Thursday) that have started last December for this. I've recently discovered a post from Agweb (https://www.agweb.com/usfr/blog/the-weather-whisperer/blame-hot-volcanoes-for-the-cold-wet-early-winter/?BloggerId=268) that was published in January that the initial eruptions were expected to make this past Winter to have colder-than-normal with above-average precipitation. However since this Spring and ongoing to this very July, we're one of the regions that may be experiencing the delayed effects from the multiple eruptions of Bogoslof. Id like to see some actual proof about that volcano. As others have mentioned it's not a very significant volcano and most if not all of its eruptions failed to make it into the stratosphere. Not only that, but the big climate altering eruptions usually happen in the tropics where the ash and other aerosols can be transported across the globe (which was actually how the QBO was first discovered). Also still not sure why 90 is so important to you. 88 feels just about the same as 90, it's just a number! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 2, 2017 Share Posted July 2, 2017 6 hours ago, nwohweather said: Up in Michigan for the weekend. Crazy how the humidity essentially was shut off at the border, felt like someone left the shower on in Ohio as muggy as it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 2, 2017 Share Posted July 2, 2017 If the GFS is right, it looks like the pattern (dry NW flow with seasonable temps) is going to be stuck on stupid in neutral for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 2, 2017 Share Posted July 2, 2017 Topped out at 89 at ORD and MDW today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 2, 2017 Share Posted July 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Topped out at 89 at ORD and MDW today. The worst Scratch that. 99 instead of 100 would be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 2, 2017 Share Posted July 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: The worst Scratch that. 99 instead of 100 would be worse. Nothing tops the high of 119*F in Phoenix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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