Harry Perry Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 Best dynamics once again lay just south of the MI/IN/OH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 This rain/storm event has been a huge bust for southeast Iowa. For several days, the WPC consistently had southeast Iowa in the 3-5" rainfall bullseye. Locations from Ottumwa to Burlington have received a tenth or two at most. I came up well short of the potential as well, but my inch over the two days is at least decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: This rain/storm event has been a huge bust for southeast Iowa. For several days, the WPC consistently had southeast Iowa in the 3-5" rainfall bullseye. Locations from Ottumwa to Burlington have received a tenth or two at most. I came up well short of the potential as well, but my inch over the two days is at least decent. Had a couple relatively brief downpours earlier, but missing the better rains again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: This rain/storm event has been a huge bust for southeast Iowa. For several days, the WPC consistently had southeast Iowa in the 3-5" rainfall bullseye. Locations from Ottumwa to Burlington have received a tenth or two at most. I came up well short of the potential as well, but my inch over the two days is at least decent. Yeah it's been a big letdown locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 New IWX Aviation update sounds promising .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Evening) Issued at 129 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017 MCV along the IN/MI border will continue ewd nr term with associated shra/tsra coming to an end. Otherwise subsidence and drying follows with VFR expected although weak mixing and partial clearing could yield some fog and potential ifr stratus prior to daybreak. Will monitor closely. Fcst by this aftn a bit more tricky. Sat data would suggest upstream cloud debris blowing off impressive MCS in srn KS will stay south resulting in a favorable diurnal destabilization trend here. However a clear cut focusing mechanism absent ewd of cold front pushing out IL Fri evening with general marginal moist low level mass flux extending downstream throughout the warm sector. Thus vcts mention best course of action toward mid aftn at this time. Regardless forcing along the incoming cold front looks to promote a period of intense rain producing storms by late aftn invof KSBN and early evening invof KFWA. Shallow post frontal cold advection follows later Fri evening with mvfr based stratocu a good bet especially in light of what should be a still moist boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 New day 1 Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST U.S.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from Oklahoma northeast into the lower Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes today. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A broad corridor of cyclonic mid-level flow will encompass much of the central U.S. and OH Valley with a series of shortwave troughs moving east. One of these disturbances, likely responsible for ongoing thunderstorm activity at the beginning of the period, will move from the central Plains eastward into the middle MS Valley by mid afternoon and subsequently to the Lower Great Lakes by daybreak Saturday. An upstream impulse will move from the central Rockies eastward into the middle MS Valley during the period. In the low levels, a cold front will push south across northwest TX. Convectively modulated boundaries will focus storm development. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... Large uncertainty exists for this forecast with thunderstorm activity preceding the outlook period, and continuing this morning from perhaps eastern portions of OK northeast to the MS river. A MCV from this convection may move east during the morning into the early afternoon and aid in sustaining storm development within a moist/unstable airmass across the Mid South with isolated to scattered pockets of wind damage possible. Models vary regarding destabilization in wake of the early-day activity across the southern Plains and storm placement. A generalized Slight Risk seems appropriate this outlook update given large uncertainty for mainly portions of OK. Refinements in later outlooks may be able to discern higher probabilities for hail if potential in some models can be realized. Hail/wind are forecast to be the primary threats with diurnally generated storms with weakening expected during the evening. ...Lower OH Valley northeast into western New England... Differential heating along residual outflow will probably contribute to storm development during the midday-mid afternoon period within this general corridor. Surface dewpoints in the 60s degrees F will yield 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Several convectively generated mid-level vorticity maxima may focus clusters of stronger storms. Moderate west-southwesterly 500-mb flow ranging from 25-45 kt will conditionally support storm organization, mainly in the form of multicells. Wind gusts 45-60 mph with the stronger downdrafts will probably result in pockets of localized wind damage. Convective outflow and the loss of diurnal heating will lessen the severe risk during the evening. ..Smith/Jirak.. 06/30/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 9 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: This rain/storm event has been a huge bust for southeast Iowa. For several days, the WPC consistently had southeast Iowa in the 3-5" rainfall bullseye. Locations from Ottumwa to Burlington have received a tenth or two at most. I came up well short of the potential as well, but my inch over the two days is at least decent. 9 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah it's been a big letdown locally. It's a fairly consistent problem when relying on severe convection to be the rain producer. Heavy rains did pan out Wednesday with a lot of training cells near the IA/MO border, where a few reports of 10-12" of rain did end up occurring. The models also had no clue how to handle the overnight MCS Wednesday night into Thursday morning, which had a lot of implications for where boundaries set up for Thursday afternoon's storms. The mishandling of the overnight convection really screwed a lot of things up... southern IA went from an enhanced risk to marginal risk and barely was able to destabilize during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 The way the sky is clearing here in Northwest Ohio, could end up with a cluster of severe thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 Omaha metro really got nailed last evening by large hail. There are a lot of reports of golf ball to tennis ball size with one report of nearly 4" diameter. About a week ago Omaha experienced 70-90 mph wind from a storm, and Lincoln has been hit hard a couple times as well, so that area has been a real hot spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 KCLE radar estimates an area near Bowling Green OH to have gotten 2" - 3" of rain in the last 3 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 6 hours ago, Jim Martin said: The way the sky is clearing here in Northwest Ohio, could end up with a cluster of severe thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall later today. Looks like the heavy rain part happened, not the severe though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 Am definitely concerned about flooding as training t storms continue to move along I-70 corridor from Effingham on northeast of Indpls. Torrential at times. Very sharp cut off on precip to the south. At least the line is moving so hopefully it will limit higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 30, 2017 Share Posted June 30, 2017 0.91" in the Rain Gauge here in midtown Findlay from 415 to 7 PM. Still raining currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisBray Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 I too chased and caught the Central City, Iowa tornado on wednesday. Here are my videos: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisBray Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Additionally, here is a picture I took of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Excellent! Thanks for the videos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 47 minutes ago, ChrisBray said: I too chased and caught the Central City, Iowa tornado on wednesday. Here are my videos: Nice job! Better than my potato videos. Ok a different note, this tornado also ended up being rated EF2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 The house was grazed (literally, had you gone about 10 or houses down the block, there was not a drop of rain) by a tiny pop-up t'storm ahead of the mass area of stratiform rains / embedded thunder during the late afternoon hours. That said, I was actually in Eastpointe under the core of the cell and it was raining cats and dogs for a good 20-30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Powerball said: The house was grazed (literally, had you gone about 10 or houses down the block, there was not a drop of rain) by a tiny pop-up t'storm ahead of the mass area of stratiform rains / embedded thunder during the late afternoon hours. That said, I was actually in Eastpointe under the core of the cell and it was raining cats and dogs for a good 20-30 minutes. I like hearing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Stebo said: I like hearing that I don't know man. I'd be freaked out to see cats and dogs coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I don't know man. I'd be freaked out to see cats and dogs coming down. Oh you!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Maumee Valley rainfall since Thurs afternoon (36 hours) was up to 4.5-5" in a couple of spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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