Torchageddon Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 23 hours ago, Juliancolton said: SC looks like crap again after some pretty encouraging runs yesterday. The GFS in particular has a nasty stratiform overcast with pretty much no hope of mitigating factors verbatim. I was planning on leaving this evening but I think I'll wait to see the overnight runs before starting the 12 hour drive... if the outlook gets much worse I may cut my losses and start planning for Chile in 22 months. After coming to the realization I couldn't make it for the 2017 solar eclipse I started thinking about Chile in 2019...not waiting 7 years on a likely cloudy April day. I have no idea how an eclipse trip like Chile would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 A little OT about the April 2024 total eclipse. If I did the proper research, it looks like that will be the longest duration total solar eclipse in the US since the June 16, 1806 total eclipse. A can't miss event, especially for anyone not able to get into the path of totality on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 19, 2017 Author Share Posted August 19, 2017 39 minutes ago, Hoosier said: A little OT about the April 2024 total eclipse. If I did the proper research, it looks like that will be the longest duration total solar eclipse in the US since the June 16, 1806 total eclipse. A can't miss event, especially for anyone not able to get into the path of totality on Monday. How long? 3+ minutes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, ice1972 said: How long? 3+ minutes? It's 4+ minutes on the center line from eastern Indiana southwestward. Almost 4 1/2 minutes by the time you get to Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: It's 4+ minutes on the center line from eastern Indiana southwestward. Almost 4 1/2 minutes by the time you get to Texas. Texas would have higher likelihood of better skies too. If I am alive and able I will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 19, 2017 Author Share Posted August 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It's 4+ minutes on the center line from eastern Indiana southwestward. Almost 4 1/2 minutes by the time you get to Texas. Right on....but what's the 12z GFS cloud cover panel say? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 49 minutes ago, weathafella said: Texas would have higher likelihood of better skies too. If I am alive and able I will go. Okay, hot tip! 2024 eclipse goes from Mexico to New England. Hits the Pacific coast of Mexico at the resort town of Mazatlan. Mexico weather is the best and this resort is on the beach. Book a room today!! This is what we did for Aruba in 1998. Winter vacation and long total eclipse on the beach!!!! CAN"T BEAT IT!. We had to book 5 years in advance. So my advice is to get on the phone today and book a vacation. Once the US sees how fantastic a total eclipse is everyone will be thinking about places like Mexico!! Next week might be too late.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 St Louis afd seems more pessimistic. However they and Paducah mentioned how the models may be affected by not properly accounting for the reduced insolation. The HRRRx is supposed to be running with eclipse conditions so it will be interesting to see how it handles clouds/precip output around 18z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 Kohx afd catching up to the model trends mentioned earlier... adding in chance of some cirrus blow off of storms in Mississippi valley. Not the end of the world given soupy airmass, and still think there's room for this to trend great vs. good for BNA. I feel like it's January writing this: we want that 0z Fri GFS / Euro solution back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: St Louis afd seems more pessimistic. However they and Paducah mentioned how the models may be affected by not properly accounting for the reduced insolation. The HRRRx is supposed to be running with eclipse conditions so it will be interesting to see how it handles clouds/precip output around 18z Monday. I'm concerned . The models have trended more cloudy for about three runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 34 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Kohx afd catching up to the model trends mentioned earlier... adding in chance of some cirrus blow off of storms in Mississippi valley. Not the end of the world given soupy airmass, and still think there's room for this to trend great vs. good for BNA. I feel like it's January writing this: we want that 0z Fri GFS / Euro solution back! And they did suggest that any blow off cirrus would be thin enough to not obscure. Looks like 18Z GFS improved a bit at least for middle TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 3 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: Okay, hot tip! 2024 eclipse goes from Mexico to New England. Hits the Pacific coast of Mexico at the resort town of Mazatlan. Mexico weather is the best and this resort is on the beach. Book a room today!! This is what we did for Aruba in 1998. Winter vacation and long total eclipse on the beach!!!! CAN"T BEAT IT!. We had to book 5 years in advance. So my advice is to get on the phone today and book a vacation. Once the US sees how fantastic a total eclipse is everyone will be thinking about places like Mexico!! Next week might be too late.... Mazatlan would be ideal. Not sure I'll want to go that far at age 77 but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: And they did suggest that any blow off cirrus would be thin enough to not obscure. Looks like 18Z GFS improved a bit at least for middle TN. Jerry, it is still too early to pick a clear spot among patches of clouds. So the GFS image here is going to change. But if it stays mostly clear from SE MO into N and NC TN, then we've got a good sense of where to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 This is kinda cool... a look back at how some newspapers covered the last coast to coast eclipse in 1918. The Topeka State Journal headline in particular, which told people that the next chance for a similar eclipse wouldn't be until 2017. https://m.mic.com/articles/amp/183041/heres-how-newspapers-around-the-country-covered-the-1918-solar-eclipse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 33 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This is kinda cool... a look back at how some newspapers covered the last coast to coast eclipse in 1918. The Topeka State Journal headline in particular, which told people that the next chance for a similar eclipse wouldn't be until 2017. https://m.mic.com/articles/amp/183041/heres-how-newspapers-around-the-country-covered-the-1918-solar-eclipse Lol....even back then some were meh about it....nothing ever changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 The marathon begins tomorrow morning....up at 3.....wheels up at 5:10.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 1 minute ago, ice1972 said: The marathon begins tomorrow morning....up at 3.....wheels up at 5:10.... OMG-torture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 It's pretty obvious the experimental RAP has the eclipse modeled. It's my understanding that the 0Z run of experimental HRRR will run out to 48 hours this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, bdgwx said: It's pretty obvious the experimental RAP has the eclipse modeled. It's my understanding that the 0Z run of experimental HRRR will run out to 48 hours this evening. Haha that's great.....centered right over my target in NE..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, ice1972 said: Haha that's great.....centered right over my target in NE..... That's the incoming shortwave radiation. Nebraska is covered with clouds...at least on the experimental RAP. The southeast side of I-44 looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, bdgwx said: That's the incoming shortwave radiation. Nebraska is covered with clouds...at least on the experimental RAP. The southeast side of I-44 looks decent. I started ignoring those cloud panels on Wednesday....they're like NAM clown maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 Just now, ice1972 said: I started ignoring those cloud panels on Wednesday....they're like NAM clown maps Probably a good idea. I think they're good for general trends and broad brush guesses, but at least with the GFS I think they look worse than they actually are. I don't track the cloud products from the RAP/HRRR (or any model for that matter) enough to really know how well they perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 That experimental RAP does separate into low, middle, and high level clouds for anyone who is interested https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 2 hours ago, ice1972 said: The marathon begins tomorrow morning....up at 3.....wheels up at 5:10.... I left NH at 5 am and made it to NC by 9 pm. No bueno... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freshgeek Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 Models are being less and less friendly for Nebraska. I'm thinking there will be a 75% chance that I'll be watching clouds get really dark in or around Grand Island on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 These maps are cool to watch the progression across the country. Huge decrease in the amount of incoming shortwave, even far outside the totality zone, followed by a big recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: These maps are cool to watch the progression across the country. Huge decrease in the amount of incoming shortwave, even far outside the totality zone, followed by a big recovery. That's pretty sweet..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 6 hours ago, weathafella said: OMG-torture! Here at Logan now....and yes it's torture....lol Actually I read the boarding pass wrong....boards at 5:10 not wheels up at 5:10....departs 5:50.....FML could have slept another 30 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 Those cloud maps suk.....period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 Fella when do you board? Gotta say TSA at 4:40 in the morning is a breath of fresh air.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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