The August 21, 2017 Great American Eclipse

[ice1972]

Yep.....I can't wait.....its gonna be a little solo adventure for me to in the nations heartland.....never been to any of those states before other than the drive through or airports.....I was gonna go to Nashville initially - I have a friend that actually lives just south of there - but then I was worried about being in that TN to SC corridor where there are tons of people coming......and contending with traffic.....so I opted for the Wisconsin angle where I have another friend that offered up her couch on Monday night.....looks like the hotel I booked in Omaha is the way to go ATM......didn't see that coming.....still time to adjust

[ice1972]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Ice-are we the only ones from the New England forum going?

Ryan is going to Charleston.....but ya....I haven't seen posts from anyone in NE other than you......

[heavy_wx]

Just now, ice1972 said:

Yep.....I can't wait.....its gonna be a little solo adventure for me to in the nations heartland.....never been to any of those states before other than the drive through or airports.....I was gonna go to Nashville initially - I have a friend that actually lives just south of there - but then I was worried about being in that TN to SC corridor where there are tons of people coming......and contending with traffic.....so I opted for the Wisconsin angle where I have another friend that offered up her couch on Monday night.....looks like the hotel I booked in Omaha is the way to go ATM......didn't see that coming.....still time to adjust

Same, I've never been to Kentucky or Tennessee. I'm thinking I'll probably leave my hotel in KY around 4-5 am just to be safe with regards to traffic. I have plenty of work to keep me busy while I wait anyway...

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, ice1972 said:

Ryan is going to Charleston.....but ya....I haven't seen posts from anyone in NE other than you......

 

Maybe it's cost....gotta be some benefit of a lifetime of work...lol.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, ice1972 said:

Ya you definitely need to be in the total zone.....its crazy how unnoticeable 97% even 98% is and how just being outside the zone even a mile or two can make all the difference.....this guy at work was like "meh I'm not gonna waste my time I've seen one before and I wasn't impresssed"...........I asked him if he was in totality and he was like "IDK".....lol

I saw a comment from someone who has seen total solar eclipses say that not knowing if you were in totality is like a woman not knowing if she ever gave birth.  

[ice1972]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I saw a comment from someone who has seen total solar eclipses say that not knowing if you were in totality is like a woman not knowing if she ever gave birth.  

LOL......ya I got the feeling from this guy at work he didn't understand the basic mechanics of a total solar eclipse.....

[ice1972]

Imagine not knowing one was coming and then on that day you're out working in the yard and it just goes dark.......that would be tremendous

[wxeyeNH]

I was here in Central NH for our 1994 annular eclipse.  My house was almost on centerline.  88% coverage.  I have videos.  At 88% you can barely notice a darkening of the landscape.  In Aruba when I saw the 3 minute total eclipse even 5 minutes before totality at 95 to 99%% or more of coverage it was not a big deal.  Once the dark curtain of complete shadow descends and the diamond ring comes out everything changes in seconds to the jaw dropping, awe experience.  With this eclipse you are going to have people literally at one end of a football field in 99.9% partial saying, that was overblown while 1000 feet away people under totality saying, oh my God, that was crazy awesome.  The line is that fine!!  Trying to explain this to "average Joe" is so frustrating!

[wxeyeNH]

Totality verses Partial is like almost being dead or being dead!

[Hoosier]

30 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I was here in Central NH for our 1994 annular eclipse.  My house was almost on centerline.  88% coverage.  I have videos.  At 88% you can barely notice a darkening of the landscape.  In Aruba when I saw the 3 minute total eclipse even 5 minutes before totality at 95 to 99%% or more of coverage it was not a big deal.  Once the dark curtain of complete shadow descends and the diamond ring comes out everything changes in seconds to the jaw dropping, awe experience.  With this eclipse you are going to have people literally at one end of a football field in 99.9% partial saying, that was overblown while 1000 feet away people under totality saying, oh my God, that was crazy awesome.  The line is that fine!!  Trying to explain this to "average Joe" is so frustrating!

Don't quite me on this, but I think it's the Kansas City Star newspaper that the totality line passes through their parking lot.  So yeah, the difference in conditions over short distances is amazing.

[bdgwx]

I read that those interactive eclipse maps may be overestimating the size of the shadow by 100-1000 meters. The problem is that many scientists think the uun is actually slightly larger than the officially accepted value. One goal of the eclipse is to better narrow down the size of the sun. So the word of caution is that if you think you're just barely within the path you really might not be.

[ice1972]

4 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

I read that those interactive eclipse maps may be overestimating the size of the shadow by 100-1000 meters. The problem is that many scientists think the uun is actually slightly larger than the officially accepted value. One goal of the eclipse is to better narrow down the size of the sun. So the word of caution is that if you think you're just barely within the path you really might not be.

I mean IDK why anybody would just park themselves at the edge of the totality window.......you gotta get yourself as close to center line as possible....

[WxBlue]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

Ice-are we the only ones from the New England forum going?

I'm new to that sub-forum after moving during this summer, but I'm heading south as well. Planning on targeting Charleston, SC area as I'm from there and know the climatology well. 

[weathafella]

13 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

I'm new to that sub-forum after moving during this summer, but I'm heading south as well. Planning on targeting Charleston, SC area as I'm from there and know the climatology well. 

Good going!

[ice1972]

Just reserved a spot in Ravenna, NE.....at the Ravenna Golf Club......$11.....gets me entry onto the property and  can pick anywhere on the course to watch.....its a tremendous spot....wide open.....its 2:45 drive from Omaha and north of I-80 so I can get there using back roads without crossing the interstate.....

https://goo.gl/maps/PizjpP9HsAJ2

 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, ice1972 said:

I mean IDK why anybody would just park themselves at the edge of the totality window.......you gotta get yourself as close to center line as possible....

You get some eclipse edge effects that last longer, like Baily's beads.  I've read that some veteran eclipse chasers will do the edge thing just for something different, but not recommended for most people who want the real show.

[mayjawintastawm]

9 hours ago, weathafella said:

I well remember that event.  In Boston, we had nearly 97% yet it didn't get that dark.  That's when I knew I had to get to totality.  Or if I were lucky I could have flown my "Lear jet to Nova Scotia to see the total eclipse of the sun"

I was in MA, in kindergarten at the time. Our teachers had pinhole projectors for it, and I do remember being underwhelmed, though a little apprehensive/scared before it happened. Then it was kind of like "When's the eclipse coming?" "It's over." "what???"

[wxsniss]

Entering 96 hour timeframe on globals for 18z Monday. Nashville looking good, Fella. GFS / CMC decent, Euro could be better. Steady as she goes.

AFD: "Monday, eclipse day, looks like a typical August day. It will be 
hot and humid. The morning may begin with total sunshine, then as 
afternoon arrives, we will likely see some diurnal cumulus clouds 
form as patches of thin cirrus move overhead. The best news is 
that pops look very low with a prevailing upper level ridge. The 
updated forecast will show 20 pops across the south half and less 
than 15 percent over the north. Overall, we are optimistic about 
seeing the eclipse, but it will probably not be perfect, and 
viewers may have to deal with some annoying patchy clouds. "

I'm hoping we can dry this out a little more.

 

[nrgjeff]

Nashville NWS turned markedly more optimistic this package as 12Z guidance really dried out the column and PWs. Morristown got bullish this morning, issuing a forecast that is better than Nebraska climo. It is forecast time!

Nashville and all of the Tennessee track should stay on the list of possibilities. We may get a lucky break with weak surface ridging and slightly rising 500 mb heights. Kentucky enjoys similar improvements to a point. None of this is a guarantee, but he region should stay on the short list.

[ice1972]

KGID for my target area...central Nebraska....not bad....need some clearing trends though.....

 

.ECLIPSE...

A total solar eclipse will occur Monday, Aug. 21st around 1 PM
CDT.

Before getting into this, want to make sure anyone reading this
acknowledges a "reality check" that this event is still 4 days
away and we are not overly-confident on the finer details. With
each passing day this confidence will increase, especially over
the weekend as Monday comes into the time range of various
shorter-term, higher resolution computer models. That being
said...

Precipitation/thunderstorm chances:
As it currently stands, a consensus of two of our primary longer
range models (ECMWF/GFS) suggest that the majority of our coverage
area (CWA) should be dry during the daytime hours, likely in a
"break" between somewhat better chances for showers/thunderstorms
both Sunday night and Monday night. This is obviously good news
for most folks, but it`s also probably a bit too soon to declare
it "guaranteed dry".

Sky cover/clouds:
Despite the overall lack of rain chances, this type of west-
southwest flow aloft pattern, along with the presence of both a
departing and incoming mid level disturbance that are relatively
close in time and space, will likely make a "highly confident"
cloud forecast rather dicey for a few more days yet. As best we
can tell for now, "partly cloudy" is the most likely scenario for
most of our area, as we surely cannot make a declaration yet of
"pristine sun" or, conversely "plentiful clouds". If anything
though, any clouds appear to be mainly of the higher/thinner
variety, which is better news than lower overcast stratus. Stay
tuned...

Temps/winds:
In other departments, it still looks to be seasonably warm day
with afternoon highs mainly upper 80s Nebraska and low-mid 90s KS.
It does look to be a touch breezy from the south, with sustained
speeds at least 10-15 MPH and some gust potential to 20+ MPH.

[ice1972]

Not really feeling the AD out of KEAX for my central Missouri target.....still a ways to go.....nothing decided yet.....

 

000
FXUS63 KEAX 172304
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
604 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 248 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

A beautiful afternoon across the Lwr Missouri Vly as high pressure
remains in control for the time being. Afternoon temps have
warmed into the lower 80s across most areas, with noticeably less
humidity thanks to drier air following last night`s frontal
passage. Similar conditions should persist through the overnight
hours with lows fall into into the lower 60s for most. Next wave
of energy seen on water vapor imagery this afternoon digging
across the Northern Rockies. With time, this feature will continue
tracking to the east-southeast through the overnight hours with
model projections suggesting main surface reflection will pass to
our north through the afternoon hours on Friday. This will
ultimately result in a weak boundary lifting north across the area
with scattered shwr/storm chances Friday morning, with additional
activity possible during the afternoon hours as associated cold
front passes later in the day. For now, best severe potential
looks to hold off until after 21z as wind fields aloft should be
increasing during this timeframe as main trough axis passes just
to our north. Given this scenario and the expected instability,
the current SPC day 2 marginal risk may get elevated with future
outlooks.

Beyond this, drier weather looks to return for much of the day on
Saturday with another round of nocturnal convection possible early
Sunday morning as the stage becomes set for an active mid range
forecast period as zonal flow returns to the central U.S. Under
this flow pattern, several midlevel shortwaves look to impact the
region towards the early to middle portions of next week.
Obviously this is going to lead to potential impacts for Monday`s
total solar eclipse and additional details are provided below.
Regardless, chance pops appear reasonable through much of next
week as forecast guidance continues to suggest a stalled frontal
boundary interacting with the above referenced midlevel
disturbances.

[winterymix]

Knowing too little about cloud forecasteses, I'ma just going post the 700 mb sref for the

AM hours before totality...

Most of the US has a moist juicy column of summer humidity except the Oregan rain shadow desert and

the Idaho-Wyoming-Nebraska fly over landscape.

I'm hoping MO has sunny skies from noon to 2 pm somewhere on the CL

The trend was to increase clouds in MO from 20/30% to more like 40%...fOOK.

Fingernail chewing commence!

 

 

[TellicoWx]

I'm located in Tellico Plains, SE TN, on the center line. A lot of people here think this is being over hyped. Going to be interesting to see how it plays out. 

[wxeyeNH]

22 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

I'm located in Tellico Plains, SE TN, on the center line. A lot of people here think this is being over hyped. Going to be interesting to see how it plays out. 

When I went to see the total eclipse in Aruba 1998 I dragged my partner down with me. He is not an nature person and really thought the whole thing was going to be overhyped. Boy did he change his mind once he saw what was happening. Let's see what people say about it being overhyped come Monday night. People will want to see an another one absolutely. Now for most of the country that sees a partial eclipse that's a totally another story.

[ice1972]

54 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

I'm located in Tellico Plains, SE TN, on the center line. A lot of people here think this is being over hyped. Going to be interesting to see how it plays out. 

You mean the eclipse being overhyped?  Lol.....so many people live in a box.....and so few know nothing about astronomy.....

[Hoosier]

Fyi, the Pivotal Weather maps have the totality path overlaid.

[ice1972]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Fyi, the Pivotal Weather maps have the totality path overlaid.

And is the oval the shadow at 96 hrs there?  That's literally my primary target in NE as of now.....not sure I can get further west than central NE.....Missouri looks like **** there....

[weathafella]

That's 30 minutes before totality in BNA roughly meaning probably at or just past west of there.

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

And is the oval the shadow at 96 hrs there?  That's literally my primary target in NE as of now.....not sure I can get further west than central NE.....Missouri looks like **** there....

Indeed, that is where it is at 1 pm central time.

[bdgwx]

4 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

And is the oval the shadow at 96 hrs there?  That's literally my primary target in NE as of now.....not sure I can get further west than central NE.....Missouri looks like **** there....

Yes, the black oval is the position of the shadow. Keep in mind that the GFS cloud products look worse than they actually are. As an exercise take a look at GOES-16 imagery tomorrow and compare it to what these cloud charts are showing and you'll see what I mean.