LibertyBell Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 On 8/1/2017 at 11:01 PM, ice1972 said: Wow.....really a tremendous stretch of totals for the US inbound......starting with this year......I expect I'll be able to see the 2024 one in northern VT or upstate NY.....maybe my cards play right and I can get to Montana in 44 and then go home to NorCal in 45......52 decent chance - I'd only be 80.......after that I'm done.....too bad I'd have to make it to 107 to be bullseye in West Hartford in 79.....maybe....first things first.....2017 and one hell of a drive Why does the 2044 eclipse end suddenly over the Dakotas? And why does the 2079 eclipse begin suddenly around NE PA and not occur west of there? And is the 2045 eclipse going to be over 6 minutes in Orlando? Looks like St. Louis, MO and Carbondale, IL will get both the 2017 and 2024 eclipses' totality! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 2079 is going to be fabulous! Hopping 2017 and realistically 2024 are great. Clouds mean everything and 2024 could be polluted that way given the April time along the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 13, 2017 Author Share Posted August 13, 2017 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Why does the 2044 eclipse end suddenly over the Dakotas? And why does the 2079 eclipse begin suddenly around NE PA and not occur west of there? And is the 2045 eclipse going to be over 6 minutes in Orlando? Looks like St. Louis, MO and Carbondale, IL will get both the 2017 and 2024 eclipses' totality! It doesn't "end" suddenly.....it's just that's the spot where the shadow falls off the face of the planet......what's depicted is the area that sees a total before that happens so the end - while maybe not exactly straight like that due to curvature - seems like it just stops...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, ice1972 said: It doesn't "end" suddenly.....it's just that's the spot where the shadow falls off the face of the planet......what's depicted is the area that sees a total before that happens so the end - while maybe not exactly straight like that due to curvature - seems like it just stops...... Maybe I can make this a bit more clear. It is where the shadow falls off the earth. It's the place where as the sun rises or sets its alreadly in total eclipse. 2024 is going to be a nice eclipse. Moon's orbit will be closer so a wider path. Wider path means darker skies at center line. Next weeks eclipse is 70 miles wide so even if you are at center line the sun will be shinning 35 miles to your north or south. So it will get twlight but not pitch dark unless there is thick cloud cover as the sunlight on the horizons have a lot of cloud angle to penetrate. Another point. The sun angle is now moving southward each day as August moves on. So the southern horizon would have more light. If I were picking a spot I would be a bit north of center line so more of the south sky is darkened. Of course weather is the wildcard. There could be a tropical system heading in from the islands. Let's hope that doesn't happen or at least delayed.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 13, 2017 Author Share Posted August 13, 2017 Should I just get in place the night before and rough it in the car or get a place a couple hours away and then go in the morning? I mean it's Nebraska - maybe Missouri - we're talking about here.....or is it just gonna be a sea oh humanity..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 13, 2017 Author Share Posted August 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Maybe I can make this a bit more clear. It is where the shadow falls off the earth. It's the place where as the sun rises or sets its alreadly in total eclipse. 2024 is going to be a nice eclipse. Moon's orbit will be closer so a wider path. Wider path means darker skies at center line. Next weeks eclipse is 70 miles wide so even if you are at center line the sun will be shinning 35 miles to your north or south. So it will get twlight but not pitch dark unless there is thick cloud cover as the sunlight on the horizons have a lot of cloud angle to penetrate. Another point. The sun angle is now moving southward each day as August moves on. So the southern horizon would have more light. If I were picking a spot I would be a bit north of center line so more of the south sky is darkened. Of course weather is the wildcard. There could be a tropical system heading in from the islands. Let's hope that doesn't happen or at least delayed.... Thank you....the sunrise/sunset thing makes perfect sense...like I knew what was happening but didn't correlate it to sunset/sunrise..... So in Montana if you were to position yourself right at the end the sun would go down in totality.....that could be a great look..... https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEanimate/SEanimate2001/SE2044Aug23T.GIF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 Ice consider Nashville. Cool place in general and good chances for visibility if the medium range Euro is to be believed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 13, 2017 Author Share Posted August 13, 2017 20 minutes ago, weathafella said: Ice consider Nashville. Cool place in general and good chances for visibility if the medium range Euro is to be believed. Ya I initially wanted to.....but booked to Madison already.....I didn't want to pay $1000.....you meeting up with anyone down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 13, 2017 Author Share Posted August 13, 2017 GFS shows nice little dome of high pressure right over WY.....lol 200 hr models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 2 hours ago, ice1972 said: Ya I initially wanted to.....but booked to Madison already.....I didn't want to pay $1000.....you meeting up with anyone down there? Flying solo I believe but my wife and daughter may be last minute additions with my wife's friend living in Nashville now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 13, 2017 Author Share Posted August 13, 2017 Just checked AT&T service in central Nebraska.....mega lolz.....that could be a deal breaker forcing me to Missouri.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 The Euro op is pretty miserable looking on the synoptic scale for SC. Let's not do that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 2 hours ago, weathafella said: Flying solo I believe but my wife and daughter may be last minute additions with my wife's friend living in Nashville now. Jerry, I'm guessing the GFS 700 mb (rel humidity, omega, heights, winds) chart gives us a rough idea of cloud cover. For eclipse time, it seems that the Ozarks (MO/TN) area is under an area of stationary flow/August scattered showers. My hunch is "partly cloudy with 30% chance of showers". I'm guessing that verification is poor at 7-8 days but still the rough ideas are there. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 21 minutes ago, winterymix said: Jerry, I'm guessing the GFS 700 mb (rel humidity, omega, heights, winds) chart gives us a rough idea of cloud cover. For eclipse time, it seems that the Ozarks (MO/TN) area is under an area of stationary flow/August scattered showers. My hunch is "partly cloudy with 30% chance of showers". I'm guessing that verification is poor at 7-8 days but still the rough ideas are there. What do you think? Models have cloud cover output maps. At the College of Dupage website, it's located under the Precipitation Products menu on the left side. Here is the 12z GFS at 1 pm central time on the 21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 13, 2017 Author Share Posted August 13, 2017 47 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Models have cloud cover output maps. At the College of Dupage website, it's located under the Precipitation Products menu on the left side. Here is the 12z GFS at 1 pm central time on the 21st Bookmarked....thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 I wish I could post it, but the 12Z Euro cloud cover products look favorable for most of the path except maybe closer to the East Coast. The EPS ensemble is favorable as well at least in regard to precipitation. It does show elevated rain chances along the East Coast portion of the eclipse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 18 minutes ago, bdgwx said: I wish I could post it, but the 12Z Euro cloud cover products look favorable for most of the path except maybe closer to the East Coast. The EPS ensemble is favorable as well at least in regard to precipitation. It does show elevated rain chances along the East Coast portion of the eclipse. Surprisingly there's a free site that offers it. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/illinois/total-cloud-coverage/20170821-1800z.html 12z run looks decent. I wish it would be less than 1% though haha 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 12Z Euro has clear skies in the morning and then broad CU coverage in response to the unstable environment. Much of the eclipse path is under some pretty decent ridging so hopefully this trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 14, 2017 Author Share Posted August 14, 2017 13 minutes ago, bdgwx said: 12Z Euro has clear skies in the morning and then broad CU coverage in response to the unstable environment. Much of the eclipse path is under some pretty decent ridging so hopefully this trend continues. For what part of the path? Southeast? Plains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 For those sleeping in their car for 1 or some of the days of traveling, where would you park for the rest? When I was looking past and future eclipse maps I noticed different spreads of band width of totality which I guess is when the moon is further away or closer. However some tracks at the mid-latitudes are really wide (300 miles or more) and I have no idea why. When looking at the database of all annular and total eclipses there would be mostly annular ones that are half circle (close to the poles) but a few where total eclipses that had the half circle! What's the reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 2 hours ago, ice1972 said: For what part of the path? Southeast? Plains? Nebraska through Tennessee. South Carolina had higher cloud coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 5 hours ago, bdgwx said: Nebraska through Tennessee. South Carolina had higher cloud coverage. Great thanks.....I just checked 18z GFS 700 RH and it looks great on Monday for the entire path....I didn't check cover maps but so far this is looking like epic viewing coast to coast....not staying up for 0z......new target is Fayette, MO......its just north of the centerline on the 2min 30sec totality line.......someone suggested being a bit north of the line....I mean its only a few miles north lol This is great....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 7 hours ago, Torchageddon said: For those sleeping in their car for 1 or some of the days of traveling, where would you park for the rest? When I was looking past and future eclipse maps I noticed different spreads of band width of totality which I guess is when the moon is further away or closer. However some tracks at the mid-latitudes are really wide (300 miles or more) and I have no idea why. When looking at the database of all annular and total eclipses there would be mostly annular ones that are half circle (close to the poles) but a few where total eclipses that had the half circle! What's the reason? IDK man pulling off the road and just sleeping in the car seems, at best, weird......I booked a hotel in Quincy, IL for $128 - right on the Mississippi River.....lol I booked it tonight.....its only 2 hrs from the totality path.....early Monday I plan to leave for Fayette, MO......112 miles......theres no interstates to Fayette and I don't have to cross any major interstates to get there.....stay north of I-70.....really have no idea what to expect.....gonna be a fun few days either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 Fella....are you flying out of Logan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 21 minutes ago, ice1972 said: Great thanks.....I just checked 18z GFS 700 RH and it looks great on Monday for the entire path....I didn't check cover maps but so far this is looking like epic viewing coast to coast....not staying up for 0z......new target is Fayette, MO......its just north of the centerline on the 2min 30sec totality line.......someone suggested being a bit north of the line....I mean its only a few miles north lol This is great....... Here's the cloud cover map valid same time. Been closely following the model runs ever since this got in range (especially for the Plains/Midwest region), and after absorbing all these runs, I will be pleasantly surprised if there aren't some cloud concerns somewhere in that region. That is a general takeaway that I'm getting even though there's the usual variance on specific details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 33 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Here's the cloud cover map valid same time. Been closely following the model runs ever since this got in range (especially for the Plains/Midwest region), and after absorbing all these runs, I will be pleasantly surprised if there aren't some cloud concerns somewhere in that region. That is a general takeaway that I'm getting even though there's the usual variance on specific details. Thanks.....gotta say that's discouraging for the town I've targeted - Fayetteville, MO - but I've got flexibility leaving from Quincy, IL early early Monday....like 3 or 4 am....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 Also given what I know about how benchmark storms can be 100 miles off as late as 24 hrs out I probably shouldn't even worry about it....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 11 minutes ago, ice1972 said: Thanks.....gotta say that's discouraging for the town I've targeted - Fayetteville, MO - but I've got flexibility leaving from Quincy, IL early early Monday....like 3 or 4 am....lol This stuff is so high stakes. If totality lasted a couple hours there'd be a lot more margin for error. We can model watch ourselves to death but it only goes so far. Get some poorly located/timed clouds even on a "mostly sunny" day and you're screwed, unless you just want to see how dark it can get in the middle of the day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 15, 2017 Author Share Posted August 15, 2017 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This stuff is so high stakes. If totality lasted a couple hours there'd be a lot more margin for error. We can model watch ourselves to death but it only goes so far. Get some poorly located/timed clouds even on a "mostly sunny" day and you're screwed, unless you just want to see how dark it can get in the middle of the day.. It's like the holy grail....you give yourself the best chance you can muster and at some point you go all in and whatever happens happens....in committed to a flight to Madison WI....I'm somewhat committed to an overnight in Quincy, IL....I can cancel as late as Saturday....at some point I'll be forced to make a decision....and there's nothing you can do after that...like Goodfellas...."and that's that....there was nothin we could do" Cutthroat man.....cutthroat.....at least I only gotta wait 7 years....and that one is closer to me...lol....but during New England spring.....awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 5 hours ago, ice1972 said: Fella....are you flying out of Logan? Yes. Shortly after noon Sunday. I have a hotel near BNA Sunday and Monday nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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