July 2017 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

The annual race in the original six portion (to be updated in June thread, I have the provisional scores ready) continues to be a three-person race among DonSutherland1, blazess556 and RJay with the chase pack keeping fairly close behind -- the June scoring did not move many from one position to another. 

Time for the July forecast contest, I hope to alert everyone before the long, long four-day weekend as the penalties will be horrendous by the 5th (I will be sending private messages to anyone who hasn't posted by Friday noon to see if we can avoid that).  

For this contest, predict the temperature anomalies in F deg (relative to 1981-2010) for the usual nine locations:

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

Entries are due by 06z Saturday, 1st of July (in other words, Saturday 0200h EDT) and penalties run 1% per 2h late, to 18z July 2nd, then they increase to 1% per hour until they gobble up all 100% of the possible scores early on the 6th. 

Good luck to all !!

[dmillz25]

DCA: +2.3

NYC: +1.5

BOS: +1.1

ORD: +2.3

ATL: +2.0

IAH: +2.0

DEN: +3.0

PHX: +2.5

SEA: +2.3

[JBG]

DCA: +1.3

NYC: +2.1

BOS: +2.5

ORD: +2.0

ATL: -1.0

IAH: +1.5

DEN: +1.0

PHX: +1.0

SEA: -1.0

[Rjay]

DCA: +1.0

NYC: +1.0

BOS: +1.0

ORD: +0.5

ATL: +0.7

IAH: +0.8

DEN: +2.5

PHX: +2.0

SEA: +1.6

[Stebo]

DCA: +1.0

NYC: +0.7

BOS: -0.5

ORD: +1.0

ATL: +2.2

IAH: +1.0

DEN: +2.8

PHX: +2.5

SEA: -1.5

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA: +0.6

NYC: +0.8

BOS: +0.6

ORD: +0.2

ATL: +0.1

IAH: +0.3

DEN: +0.7

PHX: +1.3

SEA: +0.7

[Tom]

DCA: +1.4

NYC: +1.6

BOS: +1.4

ORD: +1.8

ATL: +1.0

IAH: +1.1

DEN: +0.9

PHX: +1.2

SEA: +0.2

 

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

1.0       1.0      0.5            0.5      1.5      1.5            1.0       2.0      1.0 

[wxallannj]

DCA: +1.4

NYC: +1.2

BOS: +0.4

ORD: +1.2

ATL: +0.8

IAH: +1.0

DEN: +2.8

PHX: +1.3

SEA: +0.4

[bkviking]

DCA: +1.2

NYC: +1.2

BOS: +1.0

ORD: +0.8

ATL: +2.0

IAH: +1.3

DEN: +3.1

PHX: +2.7

SEA: +1.5

[donsutherland1]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

1.3      1.3     0.9            -0.1      0.3       -0.2           -0.3       1.4      1.1 

[Neckbeard93]

DCA: 2.1

NYC: 1.4

BOS: 1.9

ORD: 1.2

ATL: 1.5

IAH: --0.5

DEN: 3.5

PHX: 1.0

SEA: 2.0

 

[RodneyS]

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH _____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

1.5       1.6      1.8            0.3      -0.1      -0.1           3.1      1.8      1.7 

 Like this

[so_whats_happening]

DCA: +2.1

NYC: +1.7

BOS: +1.3

ORD: +2.6

ATL: -0.8

IAH: +0.5

DEN: +1.9

PHX: +1.6

SEA: +1.1

[Roger Smith]

Okay then ...

+1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 __ --0.5 __ 0.0 ____ +3.3 __ +2.7 __ +2.5

 

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +0.5

NYC:  +0.5

BOS:   0.0

ORD:  -0.5

ATL:  -1.0

IAH:  0.0

DEN:  +2.5

PHX:  +2.0

SEA:  +2.0 

[Damage In Tolland]

Well I totally forgot with wife having back surgery.. hopefully the penalty God's are understanding .

 

DCA: +2.0

NYC: +1.5

BOS: +1.1

ORD: +2.6

ATL: +2.4

IAH: +0.6

DEN: +6.0

PHX: +3.0

SEA: +3.0

 

[Roger Smith]

Hope you're all enjoying your fourth of July very long weekend, we just had the standard long weekend here. 

Well, as to late penalties, I can see that blazess556 and H2OTown_Wx have not entered yet and they could perhaps remember tomorrow which is going to get into a horrific penalty of about 70%. Damage in Tolland is looking at perhaps 16 per cent. If I reduced these present and future penalties, I would have to revise any other scores earlier in the contest that got a late penalty.

Quite willing to consider all options, it's not totally up to me as it's your contest and I am just serving as scorekeeper. If the field generally speaking wished to reduce the penalties, I could do that but it would have to apply retroactively to be fair. The main argument for not reducing is the "rules are rules" concept, whereas the main argument for adjusting is perhaps to keep our rather small contest field intact. I am not sure whether entering five days late is really worth a 70% penalty but I can't go much lower than 40, you must gain some advantage by seeing those extra days and the values already in the books. 

Let me know what you think, by private message if you prefer.  I will follow consensus on this but I don't want to annoy anybody who takes the time to enter before the deadline every month either. Tough work this contest organizing (you hate to assess late penalties, believe me, if you think I am sitting here cackling like Montgomery Burns, not the case, even that year when I was ahead, well maybe a bit then )

 

 

[Scotty Lightning]

Eh, give Damage In Tolland just a 15% penalty; he already suffers enough. 

[Roger Smith]

Okay, then, I didn't receive any anonymous comments, will just go with what we already have in place and mention that as of now (6th: 12z having passed) penalties are all-consuming and so entries are closed. Any forecasts that might appear later than this would not be scored. Will post a table of entries later today. 

[Roger Smith]

Table of Forecasts July 2017

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

dmillz25 __________________+2.3 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 ___ +2.3 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.3

Neckbeard93 ______________+2.1 _ +1.4 _ +1.9 ___ +1.2 _ +1.5 _ --0.5 ___ +3.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0

so_whats_happening _______ +2.1 _ +1.7 _ +1.3 ___ +2.6 _ --0.8 _ +0.5 ___ +1.9 _ +1.6 _ +1.1

Damage in Tolland__ (-16%)_ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 ___ +2.6 _ +2.4 _ +0.6 ___ +6.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.0

RodneyS _________________ +1.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___ +0.3 _ --0.1 _ --0.1 ___ +3.1 _ +1.8 _ +1.7

Roger Smith ______________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ --0.5 __ 0.0 ___ +3.3 _ +2.7 _ +2.5

Tom _____________________+1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.4 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.1 ___ +0.9 _ +1.2 _ +0.2

wxallannj ________________ +1.4 _ +1.2 _ +0.4 ___ +1.2 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 ___ +2.8 _ +1.3 _ +0.4

 

Consensus _______________ +1.4 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 ___ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.7 ___ +2.7 _ +2.0 _ +1.3

 

JBG _____________________ +1.3 _ +2.1 _ +2.5 ___ +2.0 _ --1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ --1.0

DonSutherland.1 ___________ +1.3 _ +1.3 _ +0.9 ___ --0.1 _ +0.3 _ --0.2 ___ --0.3 _ +1.4 _ +1.1

BKViking _________________ +1.2 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ +0.8 _ +2.0 _ +1.3 ___ +3.1 _ +2.7 _ +1.5

RJay _____________________+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _ +0.7 _ +0.8 ___ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.6

SD ______________________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0

Stebo ____________________ +1.0 _ +0.7 _ --0.5 ___ +1.0 _ +2.2 _ +1.0 ___ +2.8 _ +2.5 _ --1.5

hudsonvalley21 ____________ +0.6 _ +0.8 _ +0.6 ___ +0.2 _ +0.1 _ +0.3 ___ +0.7 _ +1.3 _ +0.7

wxdude64 _________________+0.5 _ +0.5 __ 0.0 ___ --0.5 _ --1.0 __ 0.0 ___ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.0

 

Normal ____________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

____________________________________________________________________________

Welcome to JBG ...

consensus is median value, average of 8th and 9th ranked forecasts.

(edit note: in entering forecasts to excel file and cross-checking, noted error on my part for Tom NYC, changed to +1.6 as per his entry -- was +1.8 in table).

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Seasonal Maxima for 2017 contest -- Updated scoring

Normal will sit this one out and consensus is the average rather than the median this time. Once this table appears, your entries are set, and have been cross-checked for accuracy of posting. Forecasts appear in the order of DCA then if tied, NYC and if still tied, BOS etc. "To date" will be continuously updated, and shows the highest value of 2017 so far. 

In this table of entries, current scores are shown ahead of your name.  Scores are total errors to date (e.g., 2 deg = 2 points). The  total score is partly subject to improvement  unless your forecast was lower than the maximum to date, then your score can possibly increase for that location. The most widespread locked in points are for SEA (already 96) and DEN (already 100). 

New as of July 22nd, scores will appear in order generated by the total errors to date, with the original entries and the totals shown in a second (lower) table which starts with highest DCA forecast, and then lists all forecasters in that order, using the first broken tie where required. These scoring tables never migrated to the August thread because there were no new developments. However, as of September 6, the thread is off to the September thread. It will still be edited here if necessary.

 

TABLE 1: Scoring error points (adjusted when seasonal max changes) -- red numbers denote errors that can increase, black numbers can decrease (your forecast higher than seasonal max to date). Bold zero indicates any forecast currently on the mark for seasonal max to date (these can only increase too).

Total score to date is the first entry in each line. Total points subject to further increase is the last entry.

 

Score / FORECASTER _______DCA_NYC_BOS____ORD_ATL_IAH____DEN_PHX_SEA __ Pts

 

21 _ CCM ________________ 2 __ 3 __ 2 ______ 0 __ 6 __ 3 ______ 2 __ 0 __ 3 ____ 3

22 _ BKViking _____________3 __ 4 __ 2 ______ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 2 __ 2 __ 0 ____ 2

23 _ wxdude64 ____________2 __ 5 __ 2 ______ 2 __ 6 __ 3 ______ 0 __ 1 __ 2 ____ 3

23 _ wxallannj _____________1 __ 3 __ 0 ______ 3 __ 6 __ 3 ______ 3 __ 2 __ 2 ____ 5

25 _ RodneyS _____________ 0 __ 3 __ 2 ______ 2 __ 5 __ 4 ______ 2 __ 3 __ 4 ____ 9

26 _ so_whats_happening ___4 __ 5 __ 1 ______ 3 __ 7 __ 0 ______ 3 __ 1 __ 2 ____ 5

27 _ Damage in Tolland _____2 __ 5 __ 3 ______ 5 __ 4 __ 2 ______ 1 __ 1 __ 4 ____ 6

 

29 _ Consensus (average) ___3 __ 5 __ 2 ______ 4 __ 7 __ 4 ______ 0 __ 1 __ 3 ____ 4

 

30 _ Stebo _______________ 3 __ 5 __ 1 ______ 6 __ 5 __ 4 ______ 0 __ 2 __ 4 ____ 6

33 _ dmillz25 _____________ 3 __ 6 __ 4 ______ 7 __ 8 __ 3 ______  1 __ 0 __ 1 ____ 2

34 _ Neckbeard93 _________ 3 __ 6 __ 3 ______ 1 __ 8 __ 3 ______  2 __ 1 __ 7 ____10

35 _ RJay ________________ 5 __ 6 __ 3 ______ 8 __ 8 __ 3 ______ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ____ 2

35 _ Tom ________________ 4 __ 5 __ 2 ______ 9 __10 __ 2 ______ 1 __ 2 __ 0 ____ 2

35 _ hudsonvalley21 _______ 3 __ 5 __ 5 ______ 9 __ 7 __ 1 ______ 2 __ 1 __ 2 _____2

40 _ H2O_Town__Wx ______ 0 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 5 __ 9 __ 6 ______ 5 __ 1 __ 9 ____18

42 _ SD _________________ 6 __ 6 __ 2 ______ 1 __ 9 __ 7 ______ 4 __ 3 __ 4 ____11

44 _ Roger Smith __________4 __ 3 __ 3 ______ 4 __ 7 __ 8 _____ 10 __ 1 __ 4 ____ 0

45 _ blazess556 ___________ 5 __ 7 __ 5 ______ 3 __ 7 __ 7 _____ 2 __ 1 __ 8 ____11

47 _ DonSutherland.1 ______ 5 __ 7 __ 5 ______ 4 __ 6 __ 6 ______3 __ 2 __ 9 ____14

 

Table 2: FORECAST SEASONAL MAX VALUES (red is highest forecast, blue is lowest forecast)

 

42_ SD ___________________ 104 _ 100 __ 97 ______ 96 _ 103 _ 107 ______ 96 _ 116 __ 92

47_ DonSutherland.1 ________ 103 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ______ 97 _ 117 __ 87

45_ blazess556 _____________ 103 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 98 _ 101 _ 107 ______ 98 _ 118 __ 88

35_ RJay __________________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 _____ 103 _ 102 _ 103 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 95

35_ Tom __________________ 102 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 104 _ 104 _ 102 _____ 101 _ 117 __ 96

26_ so_whats_happening _____102 __ 99 __ 96 ______ 98 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 97 _ 120 __ 94

44_ Roger Smith ____________102 __ 97 __ 98 ______ 99 _ 101 _ 108 _____ 110 _ 120 _ 100

33_ dmillz25 _______________ 101 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 102 _ 102 _ 103 ______ 99 _ 119 __ 95

34_ Neckbeard93 ___________ 101 _ 100 __ 98 ______ 96 _ 102 _ 103 ______ 98 _ 118 __ 89

 

29_ Consensus (average) _____101 __ 99 __ 97 ______ 99 _ 101 _ 104 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 93

 

35_ hudsonvalley21 _________ 101 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 104 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 98 _ 120 __ 98

30_ Stebo _________________ 101 __ 99 __ 96 _____ 101 __ 99 _ 104 _____ 100 _ 117 __ 92

22_ BKViking _______________101 __ 98 __ 97 ______ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 102 _ 117 __ 96

27_ Damage in Tolland _______100 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 100 __ 98 _ 102 ______ 99 _ 118 __ 92

23_ wxdude64 ______________100 __ 99 __ 97 ______ 97 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 94

21_ CCM __________________ 100 __ 97 __ 97 ______ 95 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 102 _ 119 __ 93

25_ RodneyS ________________98 __ 97 __ 97 ______ 97 __ 99 _ 104 ______ 98 _ 116 __ 92

40_ H2O_Town__Wx _________ 98 __ 96 __ 92 _____ 100 _ 103 _ 106 ______ 95 _ 118 __ 87

23_ wxallannj _______________ 97 __ 97 __ 95 ______ 98 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 103 _ 117 __ 94

 

Max to date _____________ 98 __ 94 __ 95 ____ 95 __94 __100___ 100 _ 119 _ 96

(updated through September 5)

[Roger Smith]

Reports on anomalies and projections ...

_________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

___ ( 7 d) ________ +2.5_ +1.3_ +2.0 ___ +2.0_ +0.5_ +1.9 ___ +3.9_ +4.4_ +1.9

___ (10 d) ________ +1.7_ +0.7_ +2.0 ___ +1.3_ +0.6_ +1.0 ___ +4.1_ +4.7_ +2.1

___ (15 d) ________ +2.8_ +0.8_ --0.2 ___ +0.7_ +1.0_ +0.6 ___ +2.6_ +3.6_ +1.5

___ (18 d) ________ +2.8_ +1.0_ +0.1 ____ 0.0_ +0.6_ +0.5 ___ +2.3_ +2.0_ +1.3

___ (21 d) ________ +3.6_ +2.0_ +1.2 ___ +0.8_ +1.1_ +0.6 ___ +2.8_ +1.4_ +1.2

___ (24 d) ________ +3.5_ +1.5_ +0.6 ___ +1.0_ +1.4_ +0.6 ___ +2.9_ +0.5_ +1.5

___ (26 d) ________ +3.0_ +0.7_ --0.2 ___ +0.9_ +1.4_ +0.7 ___ +2.9_ +0.3_ +1.7

___ (28 d) ________ +2.6_ +0.5_ --0.4 ___ +0.8_ +1.4_ +0.9 ___ +2.8_ +0.3_ +1.5

___ (29 d) ________ +2.2_ +0.3_ --0.6 ___ +0.7_ +1.4_ +1.0 ___ +2.6_ +0.3_ +1.4

___ (30 d) ________ +1.9_ +0.2_ --0.8 ___ +0.7_ +1.3_ +1.1 ___ +2.4_ +0.1_ +1.5

 

___(31 d) ________ +1.9_+0.3_ --0.9 ___ +0.6_+1.0_+0.9___+2.2_+0.2_+1.6

Final anomalies are now confirmed and are shown in bold type. 

Final and updated annual scoring posted below. 

[NicRob89]

From Greensboro North Carolina here, thought I would post my local regions highest temperature today(July 20) 96F and interesting to note as of today it's also the highest temperature of the year thus far at Greensboro's official reporting site. Going for 96F again tomorrow (Friday) and Saturday but with as dry as it's been I wouldn't be surprised to see a 97 degree reading. Keep in mind this is the Piedmont of North Carolina so mid upper 90s are rare and the last time Greensboro NC hit 100 degrees 102F was July 2012. 

 

[Roger Smith]

Thanks for the above post, I would suggest that you post that in your regional (southeast forum) discussion. If it disappears, it's because a moderator moved it there.

 

Final scoring for July 2017

 

FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS___east____ORD_ATL_IAH___cent____TOTAL

 

Stebo ____________________82 _ 92 _ 92___ 266 ____92 _ 76 _ 98 ___ 266 _____ 532

wxallannj _________________90 _ 82 _ 74 ___ 246 ____88 _ 96 _ 98 ___ 282 _____ 528

RJay _____________________82 _ 86 _ 62 ___ 230 ____98 _ 94 _ 98 ___290 _____ 520

SD ______________________ 82 _ 86 _ 72___ 240 ____ 98 _ 90 _ 88 ___ 276 _____ 516

 

Consensus _______________ 90 _ 80 _ 60 ___ 230 ____ 92 _ 90 _ 96 ___ 278 _____ 508

 

BKViking _________________ 86 _ 82 _ 62 ___ 230 ____ 96 _ 80 _ 92 ___ 268 _____ 498

hudsonvalley21 ____________74 _ 90 _ 70 ___ 234 ____ 92 _ 82 _ 88 ___ 262 _____ 496

 

Normal __________________ 62 _ 94 _ 82 ___ 238 ____ 88 _ 80 _ 82 ___ 250 _____ 488

 

Tom _____________________90 _ 70 _ 54 ___ 214 ____ 76_100_ 96 ___ 272 _____ 486

DonSutherland.1 ___________88 _ 80 _ 64 ___ 232 ____ 86 _ 86 _ 78 ___ 250 _____ 482

wxdude64 ________________72 _ 96 _ 82 ___ 250 ____ 78 _ 60 _ 82 ___ 220 _____ 470

Roger Smith ______________ 92 _ 82 _ 52 ___ 226 ____ 92 _ 70 _ 82 ___ 244 _____ 470

Neckbeard93 ______________96 _ 78 _ 44 ___ 218 ____ 88 _ 90 _ 72 ___ 250 _____ 468

RodneyS _________________ 92 _ 74 _ 46 ___ 212 ____ 94 _ 78 _ 80 ___ 252 _____ 464

dmillz25 __________________92 _ 76 _ 60 ___ 228 ____ 66 _ 80 _ 78 ___ 224 _____ 452

so_whats_happening _______ 96 _ 72 _ 56 ___ 224 ____ 60 _ 64 _ 92 ___ 216 _____ 440

JBG _____________________ 88 _ 64 _ 32 ___ 184 ____ 72 _ 60 _ 88 ___ 220 _____ 404

Damage in Tolland__________98 _ 76_ 60 ___ 234 ____ 60 _ 72 _ 94  ___ 226 __ 460

________ (-16%) __________82 _ 64 _ 50 ___ 196 ____ 50 _ 60 _ 79 ___ 189 _____ 385

 

Final scoring for western and all nine contests, July 2017

 

FORECASTER ____________ DEN_PHX_SEA _____ TOTAL __________ All Nine (= rank)

 

RJay ____________________ 94 _ 64 _100_______258 ____________778 ( = 1 ) 

so_whats_happening _______94 _ 72 _ 90 _______ 256 ____________ 696 ( = 12)

Neckbeard93 _____________ 74 _ 84 _ 92 _______ 250 ____________ 718 ( = 7 )

wxdude64 _______________ 94 _ 64 _ 92 _______ 250 ____________ 720 ( = 6 )

RodneyS _________________82 _ 68 _ 98 _______ 248 ____________ 712 ( = 8t)

 

Consensus _______________ 90 _ 64 _ 94 _______ 248 ____________ 756 ( = 3 )

 

wxallannj ________________ 88 _ 78 _ 76 _______ 242 ____________ 770 ( = 2 )

BKViking _________________82 _ 50 _ 98 _______ 230 ____________ 728 ( = 4 )

hudsonvalley21 ___________ 70 _ 78 _ 82 _______ 230 ____________ 726 ( = 5 )

SD ______________________76 _ 64 _ 88 _______ 228 ____________ 744 ( = 3 )

Tom ____________________ 74 _ 80 _ 72 _______ 226 ____________ 712 ( = 8t)

dmillz25 _________________ 84 _ 54 _ 86 _______ 224 ____________ 676 ( = 14)

 

Normal __________________ 56 _ 96 _ 68 _______ 220 ____________ 708 ( =11)

 

DonSutherland.1 __________ 50 _ 76 _ 90 _______ 216 ____________ 698 ( = 11)

Roger Smith ______________78 _ 50 _ 82 _______ 210 ____________ 680 ( = 13)

JBG _____________________76 _ 84 _ 48 _______ 208 ____________ 612 ( = 15 )

Stebo ___________________ 88 _ 54 _ 38 _______ 180 ____________ 712 ( = 8t)

Damage in Tolland _________24 _ 44 _ 72 _ 140

_________ (-16%) ________ 20 _ 37 _ 60 _______ 117 _____________502 ( = 16 )

 

 

[Roger Smith]

<<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (Jan-July) ---=--- >>>

... ... ... ... ... ... ... (see post 25 above for confirmed July scoring) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Meanwhile, best total scores January-July are highlighted in red in the table for six locations, and in bold italic for two groups and for all six. 

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east___ORD_ATL_IAH__ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

 1 DonSutherland.1 ____377 _374 _324 __1075___388 _444 _477_1309___2384 _001.112.1.2_ Jan, May 

 

 2 RJay ______________330 _403_350 _1083 ___341 _444 _475__1260 ___2343_122.311..2.3_Feb,Apr 

 3 BKViking __________ 336 _352 _352 __1040 ___357 _415 _360__1132 ___2172 __000.001

 4 wxallannj __________351 _334 _374__1059 ___263 _413 _430__1106 ___2165 __002.012..1.0 _Jun

 

 5 Consensus _________322 _334 _295 __ 951 ___334 _411 _425 __1170 ___2121 __010.000

  

 5 dmillz25 ___________354 _327 _320 __1001 ___328 _366 _386__1080 ___2081 __100.101

 6 Stebo _____________324 _337 _303 __ 964 ___289 _406 _381 __1076 ___2040 __001.002..1.0 __ Jul

 7 hudsonvalley21______297 _323 _290 __ 910 ___336 _406 _367__1109 ___2019 __000.010

 8 SD _______________ 334 _341 _299 __ 974 ___342 _349 _336__1027 ___2001 __010.100

 9 Tom ______________ 343 _317 _275 __ 935 ___278 _376 _387__1041 ___1976 __000.110

10 RodneyS ___________306 _284 _210 __ 800 ___327 _363 _463__1153 ___1953 __011.200..0..1 _ Mar 

 

11 wxdude64 _________ 337 _310 _297 __ 944 ___280 _327 _336__ 943 ___1887 __120.000..1.0

 

12 Normal ____________ 318 _337 _300 __ 955 ___297 _278 _320__ 895 ___1850 __000.000.0.0 __ May

 

12 blazess556~________303 _303 _322 __ 928 ___322 _303 _293__ 918 ___1846 __001.000

13 Damage in Tolland __275 _279 _236 __ 790 ___310 _353 _367__1030 ___1820 __000.010..0.0

14 Roger Smith _______246 _259 _150 __ 655 ___222 _310 _371 __ 903 ___1558 

15 Neckbeard93*______196 _218 _145 __ 559 ___332 _328 _332 __ 992 ___1551 __100.000

16  H2Otown_WX~_____263 _270 _278 __811 ___192 _265 _277 __ 734 ___1545 __110.001..1.0

17 so_whats_happening#295_229 _222 __ 746 ___198 _284 _295 __ 777 ___1523 __200.000 

18 CCM %%___________136 _106_156 __398 ___146 _134 _126 __406 ___ 804 __000.100..0.1

19 Prestige Worldwide^_111 _107_123 __ 341 ____25 _140 _118 __283 ___ 624 __110.010 

20 Maxim^____________80 _ 85 _ 78 __ 243 ____ 50 _150 _142 __342 ___ 585 __100.001

21 JBG % _____________88 _ 64 _ 32 __ 184 ____ 72 _ 60 _ 88 ___220 ___ 404

________________________________________________________________________________

 

Updated annual scoring for western and all nine contests January - July 2017

 

FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 

 

 1 Rjay _______________ 440 _472 _593___1505 __ 2 0 2 _ Jan,Jul__ 3848 ( = 1) __ FEB, APR,JUL

 

 2 Consensus ___________445 _463 _554 ___1462 __ 1 0 0 _________ 3583 ( = 4)

 

 2 wxallannj ___________ 418 _511 _526 ___1455 __ 0 1 1 __________3620 ( = 3) __ JUN

 3 Roger Smith _________383 _433 _614 ___1430 __ 0 0 1 _ Feb _____2988 (= 13)   

t4 dmillz25 ____________ 432 _403 _540 ___ 1375 __ 1 0 1 _ Apr _____3456 ( = 5) 

t4 RodneyS ____________414 _493 _468 ___ 1375 __ 1 1 0 ________ _3328 ( = 6) ___  MAR 

 6 BKViking ____________361 _422 _582 ___ 1365 _________________3537 ( = 4) 

 7 DonSutherland.1 _____ 431 _469 _456 ___ 1356 __ 2 0 0 _________ 3740 ( = 2) ___JAN, MAY

 8 Tom _______________ 341 _481 _530 ___ 1352 _________________3328  ( = 7)

 9 wxdude64 ___________401 _406 _514 ___ 1321 __ 1 0 0 _________3208 ( = 11)

10 so_whats_happening#_403 _431 _462 ____1296 __ 0 2 0 _ Mar,May_2819 ( = 15)

 

11 SD_________________ 406 _425 _462 ___ 1293 ________________ 3294 ( = 8)

12 Damage in Tolland ____292 _443 _527 ___ 1262 __ 0 1 2 _ Jun ____ 3082 ( =12)

13 hudsonvalley21 ______ 359 _424 _476 ___ 1259 _________________3278 ( = 9)

14 Stebo ______________ 391 _394 _437 ___ 1222 __ 1 0 0 _________ 3262 ( = 10) 

 

15 Normal _____________ 346 _392 _450 __ 1188 __ 0 1 0 _________ 3038 ( = 13)

 

15 H20TownWx~ _______ 375 _352 _441 ___ 1168 __ 0 0 1 _________ 2713 ( = 16) 

16 blazess556~ ________ 324 _353 _360 ____1037 __ 1 0 0 _________ 2883 ( = 14)

17 Neckbeard93* _______447 _325 _217 ____ 989 __ 2 1 0 _________ 2540 (= 17)

18 Prestige Worldwide^__ 159 _223 _170 ____ 552 __ 0 1 0 _________ 1176 ( =18)

19 Maxim^ ____________ 161 _133 _176 ____ 440 ________________ 1055 (= 20)

20 CCM %% ___________ 114 _ 94 _156 ____ 364 _________________1168 (= 19)

21 JBG % _______________76 _ 84 __48 ____ 208 __ 0 1 0 __________ 612 (= 21)

 

_______________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

* one month missed (Jan). # one month missed (Apr), ~ one month missed (July)

^ three months played (Jan, Feb, Mar)

%% two months played (May, June) ... % one month played (July)

 

New this month: reports on ranking with late penalties removed

 

Jan late penalty for Blazess556 total of 2, (0,2) -- no change in rank

 March late penalty deductions:

... Rjay lost 41 (22,19), Damage lost 18 (13,5) and wxdude64 lost 14 (12,2). 

... no change in rank for RJay (2nd, 1st, all nine 1st) _ Damage, see July _ wxdude64 would not change ranks in 

... ... ... any contest.

April late penalty deductions:

... H2O_Town__wx lost 51 (25,26) and Neckbeard93 lost 32 (14,18).

... H2O_Town__wx would edge past Neckbeard93 in original six (they would exchange 15th, 16th), H2O_Town__wx would edge ahead of Normal in western, no change of rank to all nine, Neckbeard no change of rank in western or all nine. 

May late penalty deductions:

... BKViking lost 32 (20, 12).

... BKViking would move up one spot to 3rd in original six, no changes to western or all nine rankings. 

June late penalty deductions:

... Stebo lost 39 (24,15).

... Stebo would remain in same rankings in original six and western but would move up two places to 8th overall.

July late penalty deductions:

... Damage in Tolland lost 98 (75, 23). annual total now 116 (88, 28)

... Damage in Tolland would move up three places in the original six (to 10th), two in the western (to 10th) but would remain 12th overall, not catching 11th place wxdude64 (even before wxdude64 got his own boost up). 

 

__ ranks for Consensus and Normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters.

 

Any questions about relative performance of those who have missed one or two months will be addressed at end of year for your inrterest. It all depends on which months were missed, obviously July was a bigger hit than February to point totals (because the July forecasts were generally higher scoring).

 

•  

[Roger Smith]

Extreme Forecast Report (July 2017)

 

DCA ( +1.9) edged back into contention. It will be scored as a shared win for neckbeard93 and so_whats_happening (each at +2.1), a no decision for Damage in Tolland (at +2.0 but with a late penalty), and a loss for dmillz25 (+2.3).  

NYC (+0.3) is a win for the lowest forecast from wxdude64 (+0.5).

BOS (--0.9) would be a win for Stebo (--0.5).

ORD, ATL, IAH, and DEN as well as SEA are all close to consensus and failed to qualify.

PHX (+0.2) is a shared win for the lowest (no typo) forecasts of +1.0 from Neckbeard93 and JBG. The anomaly was a lot higher for the first half but heavy "monsoon" summer storms have kept a few days well below normal (for PHX, 90 is like a cold snap). Normal also scores a win for PHX.

 

 

UPDATED TABLE OF EXTREME FORECASTS (wins and losses)

 

RJay _____________ 8-0

DonSutherland1 ____ 6-1

Prestige Worldwide __3-0

Damage in Tolland ___ 3-0*

Wxdude64 _________ 3-0

so_whats_happening _3-0

Normal ____________3-0

Wxallannj __________3-1

Neckbeard93 _______ 3-1

H2OTown__Wx ____ _2-0

Maxim ____________ 2-0

Dmillz25 ___________2-1

Stebo _____________2-2

Roger Smith _______ 1-0

RodneyS __________ 1-0

JBG ______________ 1-0

CCM ______________ 1-1

____________________________________________

* no decision for DCA July 2017