NJwx85 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 We have been upgraded to a Marginal risk in the latest update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 We're currently a bit capped. That convection over PA is forecasted to diminish before reaching the area. The main threat will be late this afternoon and then overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 regular nam shows the stuff in southern OH expanding N and E. Jackpots areas north of NYC - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 Not bad, through 3AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 3K Nam chopped back compared to 6z and yesterday's runs....less than .50 for most areas-meh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 3K Nam chopped back compared to 6z and yesterday's runs....less than .50 for most areas-meh - That's because it was less impressive with the convection early tomorrow morning, probably a blip. I'd stick with the HRRR at this range. Should be all over by 10AM in most locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 Ingredients looks solid for storms that could produce very heavy rain. The biggest limiting factor once again is virtually non existent mid-level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 Southern areas upgraded to slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 Looks like a lot of rain coming down tonight. At least 1.5 inches of rain I would think take a look at all that moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Posters would be up in arms if the Euro ever produced a snowfall forecast like this. That certainly could happen but I think it is unlikely. I would think the shorter range mesoscale models are the way to go here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 The HRRR has a few clusters of storms crossing the area between 6 and 8PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 the northern band is from outer convection tonight and the second band is from cindy's core itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 HRRR still going strong for the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 the PA convection is south of where the hrrr is showing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the PA convection is south of where the hrrr is showing it To me the convection near Harrisburg is on a good trajectory to move towards this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 MCD out for most of NJ , 40% chance of watch issuance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: Pretty much identical to the 12z NAM showing two distinct heavy rain bands and a gap in between. It may just may come down to nowcast time as to where they set up. Roll the dice at this point as to who the winners and losers will be. It is definitely going to come down to nowcasting, like you mentioned, its always a roll of the dice to try and pinpoint where the heaviest rain will eventually set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 the hrrr just cannot get PA right. i think we'll get a good drink later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 3" IMBY and less than a quarter inch in the city, works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 Regular NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 i always rely on the nammiest of the nams. but there is 3" potential and we won't know where until it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 Just now, forkyfork said: i always rely on the nammiest of the nams. but there is 3" potential and we won't know where until it happens Models have been showing that NW JP for awhile now, the rest of the region is more dependent on tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 the 12k nam actually has a decent initialization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: the 12k nam actually has a decent initialization it picks up the harrisburg stuff unlike other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 23, 2017 Author Share Posted June 23, 2017 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: the 12k nam actually has a decent initialization What's wrong with this valid 5PM? Almost spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 the western pa stuff is too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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