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June 19th Thunderstorm Discussions & Observations


bluewave

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1 minute ago, snywx said:

3.03"..  Wondering if 5-6" is doable

It is, flash flood warning for Sussex now too

Flash Flood Warning
NJC037-041-PAC089-192215-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.W.0002.170619T1917Z-170619T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
317 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Sussex County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Northern Warren County in northwestern New Jersey...
  East central Monroe County in northeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 615 PM EDT

* At 316 PM EDT...Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have
  already fallen...and more rain is on the way. Flash flooding is
  expected in the heaviest rainfall bands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&
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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Gust to 55 mph at Reading.

 

go_cgi.gif.bda5e6a3badbae28c0ee2630545bdac0.gif

Winds must be gusting close to 40 here, its pretty wild out there right now...

 

Edit: Islip gusting to 39...airport is 5 miles or so inland...must be gusts near 45 at the beaches

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Nice line segment near Allentown, PA (at 3:30 pm) should continue moving ENE toward New York City. It had previously been an impressive LEWP near Harrisburg, PA. At this point I'm not sure I'd hope for anything ahead of it in the somewhat unidirectional environment. I'd put my hopes on a good bow echo and straight line wind. Environment should maintain that line pretty well.

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5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Winds must be gusting close to 40 here, its pretty wild out there right now...

 

Edit: Islip gusting to 39...airport is 5 miles or so inland...must be gusts near 45 at the beaches

 

0205 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG EWING                   40.27N  74.80W
06/19/2017                   MERCER             NJ   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREE DOWN ON A TOWPATH NEAR JACOBS CREEK ROAD. NOT
            THUNDERSTORM RELATED.
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Just now, nrgjeff said:

Nice line segment near Allentown, PA (at 3:30 pm) should continue moving ENE toward New York City. It had previously been an impressive LEWP near Harrisburg, PA. At this point I'm not sure I'd hope for anything ahead of it in the somewhat unidirectional environment. I'd put my hopes on a good bow echo and straight line wind. Environment should maintain that line pretty well.

That line segment just passed my location.  Had a wind gust to 23 MPH.  Lightning output on my lightning detector has not been too impressive during the past 45 minutes - especially considering the radar appearance.  In any case wind and rain here without lightning or thunder.  For now this goes into the books as more of a wind producer here than anything else.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 


0205 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG EWING                   40.27N  74.80W
06/19/2017                   MERCER             NJ   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREE DOWN ON A TOWPATH NEAR JACOBS CREEK ROAD. NOT
            THUNDERSTORM RELATED.

600 customers without power on LI now.

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1 minute ago, nrgjeff said:

Nice line segment near Allentown, PA (at 3:30 pm) should continue moving ENE toward New York City. It had previously been an impressive LEWP near Harrisburg, PA. At this point I'm not sure I'd hope for anything ahead of it in the somewhat unidirectional environment. I'd put my hopes on a good bow echo and straight line wind. Environment should maintain that line pretty well.

Not unidirectional as you get closer to the coast:

 

NEW YORK CITY  PTSUNNY   86  71  60 S16G25   

 

I'm really interested to see what these storms do when they tap into the strong backed flow along the coast. 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, psv88 said:

600 customers without power on LI now.

Have some small branches down here.

1200 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SOUTH BRUNSWICK         40.39N  74.53W
06/19/2017                   MIDDLESEX          NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE TAKEN DOWN DUE TO WIND ONTO A CAR.
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29 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Winds must be gusting close to 40 here, its pretty wild out there right now...

 

Edit: Islip gusting to 39...airport is 5 miles or so inland...must be gusts near 45 at the beaches

Parsley's fence is in danger 

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Shear has been weak all day but it's increasing.

eshr.gif?1497902467302

Agree.  The CAMs were showing the best chance for good severe in the next two hours or so, where better bulk shear moves over the S/SSW flow along the coast.   Obviously we have enough CAPE - the updrafts are strong enough that you can see the towers growing without a timelapse and the clouds are firmly defined.  

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