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June 19th Thunderstorm Discussions & Observations


bluewave

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MD 1094 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 1094
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0121 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

   Areas affected...Parts of northern Virginia...central/eastern
   Maryland...northern Delaware...southeastern Pennsylvania...northern
   New Jersey and the lower Hudson Valley

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 354...356...

   Valid 191821Z - 192015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 354, 356
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rain, frequent cloud to
   ground lightning and increasing (potentially damaging) strong wind
   gusts may impact much of the Northeast urban corridor (DC to New
   York) by 3-5 PM EDT.

   DISCUSSION...Continuing insolation has warmed surface temperatures
   to around 90F through much of the urban corridor from Washington
   D.C./Baltimore through Philadelphia and New York City.  This is
   contributing to sizable CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg, ahead of
   evolving upstream thunderstorm activity which continues to gradually
   organize and intensify.

   Through 20-21Z, a consolidating and strengthening cold pool
   associated with the evolving convective system seems likely to surge
   northeastward and eastward into the urban corridor, accompanied by
   increasingly widespread (and potentially damaging) surface gusts on
   its leading edge.  This may be enhanced as convection encounters
   stronger southerly ambient low-level wind fields, as suggested by
   the latest Rapid Refresh, on the order of 40+ kt.
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Flash Flood Warning
NYC071-192200-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.W.0005.170619T1903Z-170619T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
303 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Orange County in southeastern New York...

* Until 600 PM EDT

* At 301 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to one inch of rain has
  already fallen and one to three additional inches are possible.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses
as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots. Flash flooding
is expected to begin shortly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.
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15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The EXP HRRR has been out performing the regular HRRR so far today. It keeps the line together fairly well until it reaches Central Suffolk.

59481ccc3d9a8.png

59481deaadf3f.png

 

Marine layer has completely cleared out now. Clear skies and 81, with howling south winds.

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