Drz1111 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 12Z 3km NAM. This is for Manhattan this afternoon. HRRR doesn't show the winds quite as backed, but if the NAM verifies . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 1 minute ago, friedmators said: Yup, weakens rapidly after that frame though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Hot off the press from Mount Holly Quote .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A convectively active afternoon is expected across at least the western half of our area, which then shifts east this evening. A cold front will be approaching later today, however ongoing showers/thunder well to our west should strengthen eastward through the afternoon as it encounters a more unstable air mass. Some isolated convection could develop well ahead of this. In addition, a pre-frontal trough may help to organize a separate band of convection with storms probably tending to congeal into a single line as we get closer to the early evening. The air mass in place is rather warm and moist with PW values already near 2 inches. This is already resulting in quite a bit of instability with a mesoscale analysis indicating MLCAPE in the 1000- 2000 J/KG range. Some lower cloud bases have quickly developed within this very warm and moist environment, however as mixing increases these should rise some. The deep southwesterly flow will mostly favor a linear convective mode, however as the convective line grows upscale (some increase in the shear as a low-level jet strengthens) later today there could be some embedded cells with some updraft rotation. Given the mostly unidirectional flow though, straight-line damaging wind gusts is the main threat. The mid level lapse rates do not appear to be all that steep, therefore while some hail is possible this may temper this potential. The 12z Sterling, VA RAOB shows a bit of dry air just above 500 MB, and this could aide in downdraft strength. The overall high moisture content of the air mass though may result in water-loaded downdrafts which can enhance the surface winds, especially with any segments that bow out. The tropical air mass should also be conducive for convective to produce frequent lightning. As mentioned earlier the PW values will be around 2 inches. This will result in areas of very heavy rain as convection should be efficient rainfall products. While the storm motions should be fairly quick, a linear mode and possible backbuilding of updrafts may result in the potential for local flash flooding. Therefore, the Flash Flood Watch remains as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Yup, weakens rapidly after that frame though. I really can't remember the last truly severe storm in Edison. Is there a database of verified severe conditions based on locale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, friedmators said: I really can't remember the last truly severe storm in Edison. Is there a database of verified severe conditions based on locale? It's funny that nobody around here thinks we ever get severe weather. My last severe storm was very late on May 31st of this year when it hailed up to the size of ping pong balls for five minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: It's funny that nobody around here thinks we ever get severe weather. My last severe storm was very late on May 31st of this year when it hailed up to the size of ping pong balls for five minutes. I havent seen hail in years here at home. I actually thought hail AND wind was a requirement but its either. Still haven't had one here in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Just now, friedmators said: I havent seen hail in years here at home. I actually thought hail AND wind was a requirement but its either. Still haven't had one here in a while. I've managed to see hail now four times in the last five years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Just now, friedmators said: I havent seen hail in years here at home. I actually thought hail AND wind was a requirement but its either. Still haven't had one here in a while. I've had hail twice here in plainfield. One was at the tail end of the March 2010 noreaster. Severe I saw last July and before that probably June 2009 where wind criteria was met. So once every 5 years is pretty pitiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's funny that nobody around here thinks we ever get severe weather. My last severe storm was very late on May 31st of this year when it hailed up to the size of ping pong balls for five minutes. it's all about expectations. Too much hype most times and even in the best setups, most will come up empty.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 I was down in VA for work near Shenandoah National Park in 2014 and was able to chase the same storm along the ridge of the mountain for over an hour and got hail like 3-4 different times. I believe that was the last time I've seen anything meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: it's all about expectations. Too much hype most times and even in the best setups, most will come up empty.... The night I had the severe hail we had very steep mid and low level lapse rates which certainly was unusual for this area. I believe someone on here posted that they were driving down the Thurway in Suffern and saw hail as large as golf balls. That's not more than a mile or two away from where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 4 seems a bit early unless we get something out ahead of the main line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 My only hail so far this decade could have easily been mistaken for sleet in terms of size. That said, with the May 31 event producing golf balls and a tornado 20 minutes away from me, it's hard to say severe doesn't happen here. You just need a little patience in this part of the country. As for today, still quite sunny imby and numerous small cells are popping off to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 1090 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Areas affected...Parts of the northern Mid Atlantic Coast region into New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 191445Z - 191715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm activity is expected into and through the 1-4 PM EDT time frame, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. At least a couple of severe weather watches appear likely within the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...Ahead of lingering pre-frontal convection, insolation within a seasonably high moisture content boundary layer (surface dew points near/above 70F) is contributing to moderately large CAPE and weakening inhibition. This is occurring from the lee of the Allegheny Mountains through much of the Hudson/Champlain Valleys into the mountains of northern New England, where lower/mid tropospheric flow is already cyclonic and modest in strength. Although large-scale upstream troughing is only very slowly progressing eastward, weak mid-level height falls associated with subtle embedded perturbations may aid storm development into the 17-20Z time frame. The initiation of thunderstorms already appears underway across the Poconos, Catskills into and northeast of the Berkshires, and a gradual increase in coverage/intensification seems probable into early afternoon. Eventually, in the presence of soundings that appear characterized by high precipitable water and 30-40 kt south to southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric flow, heavy precipitation loading and downward momentum transfer may contribute to increasing potential for downbursts. Consolidating and strengthening cold pools may also contribute to organizing convection accompanied by strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 84/73. Really need that line to hold off until 6pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Towers going up north of 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Partly sunny here 78/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr461 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That one in Bergen county was right on top of me. Downpour for about 5 min. Becoming partly sunny again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 The last wide spread severe event in this region was the Labor Day 98 derecho. We talk about every severe season. I think the best chance of severe today would be with any discrete cells out ahead of the main line. The main line will probably be your typical underwhelming 30mph gust type of squall line. I'm just hoping to see a nice shelf here at beach and maybe a scud or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Severe thunderstorm watch issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 SEL4 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 354 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Western and Central Massachusetts Northern New Jersey Eastern New York Eastern Pennsylvania Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning and evening from 1115 AM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to intensify across the watch area through the afternoon, with the strongest cells capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles southeast of Harrisburg PA to 35 miles northwest of Keene NH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Picked up .64" already.. Sun trying to come back out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 About to get hit here, these cells should merge right over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 WOW, I mean an absolute deluge for the past 7 minutes or so. No thunder, lightning, etc, but just incredibly heavy rain. Has to be the heaviest I've seen in a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 5 minute drizzle with the sun out. Nice rainbow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 1 minute ago, JerseyWx said: WOW, I mean an absolute deluge for the past 7 minutes or so. No thunder, lightning, etc, but just incredibly heavy rain. Has to be the heaviest I've seen in a very long time. Looks to be headed in my direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Temp dropped to 71° now. The cell that passed over me in northern Morris and is now heading into Passaic/Bergen laid down some absolute torrential downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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