ForestHillWx Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Flash flood advisory posted. Looking for 1-2", with the potential of 3-4"; in assuming training of cells. NWS too aggressive? 69/69 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said: Flash flood advisory posted. Looking for 1-2", with the potential of 3-4"; in assuming training of cells. NWS too aggressive? 69/69 currently. models have big rain amount N and W of the city..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Tomorrow looks underwhelming for the coast. Classic situation in which convection gradually weakens as it nears the ocean. I wouldn't get my hopes up for Long Island, NYC, S CT, and the NJ coast. Best potential will be EPA and WNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Yes please, though it weakens after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Hodos for the LHV are very interesting for tomorrow. Lots of low level vorticity and CAPE to play with. Could be a good set up for short lived low-level mesos and a tornado or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 18z Rgem and Nam both look better for NYC and SWCT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 NWS forecasting 2.5 inches of rain for the city tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 The EXP HRRR has a round of discrete cells moving through NJ around Noon well ahead of the main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 We're under an ehnaced risk now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, TriPol said: We're under an ehnaced risk now! It's been that way all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: The EXP HRRR has a round of discrete cells moving through NJ around Noon well ahead of the main line. Where can I get a hold of that model? Is there a subscription needed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 I think tomorrow has the best chance for severe weather even in NYC in a few years. This line is going to crush us with lightning heavy rain and a decent wind storm. Tomorrow in my opinion during the day is humid but mostly dry and sunny up until 3-4 pm once the clouds roll in rain comes in a fury around 5:30PM and doesn't end until about 10:30PM. High of 87 in Central Park with high humidity. Enjoy but be very careful tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 it always seems like the well long in advance advertised threats seem to not live up to the billing...we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: it always seems like the well long in advance advertised threats seem to not live up to the billing...we shall see I would go in with low expectations. This isn't Oklahama and more times than not something goes wrong, even in places that get severe weather regularly. Also severe weather is almost always localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Wouldn't surprise me if this ends up bring a good flooding event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 The end of the HRRR is just incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 The latest hrrr looks wicked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Media hype begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 I'm surprised that this isn't getting more attention on the forum. CAMs continue to show subtle backing of low-level wind right as the convection arrives. Timing is good too - late afternoon - so in spite of ****ty midlevel lapse rates we have decent CAPE to work with. There's not nearly enough shear upstairs for organized supercells (and the flow is parallel to the front, so mode should be as a broken line) but the parameters the models are showing have produced weak tornados in our area in the past - generally as embedded low-level spin ups. The other ingredients we need are all there - very low LCLs, surface-based convection, winds more SSW than S/SE so the sea breeze inversion is generally limited to LI and the immediate coast. Yes, the flooding will be higher impact, but the tornado threat is cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Greatest threat is damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Hoping for a good shelf cloud as any squall line interacts with sea breeze . Based on past events it's looking like we have a good shot here. Also waters temps are in the mid 60s now so they aren't nearly as stabilizing as earlier in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Enhanced risk expanded East to about the Queens/Nassau border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 In spite of cloud cover here we're already very unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Any concerns about the cap breaking too early and popup storms ruining the destabilization? Was hoping for some more CIN this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 sun is starting to break out here....76/73 so we'll get good heating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 13 minutes ago, friedmators said: Any concerns about the cap breaking too early and popup storms ruining the destabilization? Was hoping for some more CIN this early. Yes, the HRRR has several rounds of storms before the main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 41 minutes ago, friedmators said: Any concerns about the cap breaking too early and popup storms ruining the destabilization? Was hoping for some more CIN this early. There is no meaningful cap today. Hence the crappy lapse rates. If an EML had been advected over us today, we'd be having a heck of a severe outbreak (but we'd lose the flood risk, since EMLs generally mean less mid-level moisture given their source region). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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