bluewave Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 Discuss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 Both the 12z PARA GFS and GFS show the potential for several inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 Looks like we have the possibility of some showers and thunderstorms Friday, Saturday and Sunday as well but the main show looks to be early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 Ugggh not again for fathers day I have a bbq to attend. It was canceled on memorial day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 The EPS mean had 1.75"+ over the next 6 days for most areas, however given that this will be purely convectively driven there will be the typical winners and losers. I'm putting this out there now so that I can bump this later in the week, don't expect the radar to look particularly impressive except for on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 even long island gets good elevated cape sunday evening on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 13 hours ago, bluewave said: We have been fortunate that the big rain days have mostly found a way to miss the weekends going back to the spring. Thank God. With 2 active kiddos here, let it rain during the week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 I remember some June deluges when I was a teenager and living in Brooklyn...the first was on June 24th, 1962...the second was in 1967 during the daytime...Both were localized heavy rains in a few hours...6" was reported in Bensonhurst in 1962...It led to a huge sink hole on 62nd street and Ft. Hamilton Pkwy...the one in 1967 caused street flooding on 10th Ave and 62nd St...It was raining so hard you could not see very far...I don't know how much rain fell that day but it was the only time I saw flooding like that in my area... http://www.tandfonli...72.1962.9926985 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 The PARA GFS and GGEM show potential for 4"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 Hey if ya could order up a dry day on Wednesday for my twins HS graduation I'd appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 SPC has enhanced area just west of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 This should be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 5 hours ago, weathermedic said: SPC has enhanced area just west of 95 Enhanced risk box is touching NYC on this graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 1 hour ago, ag3 said: Enhanced risk box is touching NYC on this graphic. Surface based instability drops off rapidly East of the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 3K Nam looks damn interesting for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 44 minutes ago, Jason WX said: 3K Nam looks damn interesting for Monday. What's the shear and CAPE like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Shear: Cape: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Euro gets the best CAPE right into NYC. Not a good setup for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Not a good setup for us Not a good setup as in it's not enough for tornadoes or not a good as in it's a very good setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Not a good setup for us Lol no setup is good for Long Island. Sometimes you can get a surprise but the main severe threat should stay West of NYC Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Lol no setup is good for Long Island. Sometimes you can get a surprise but the main severe threat should stay West of NYC Monday. I think NYC gets in it as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, TriPol said: Not a good setup as in it's not enough for tornadoes or not a good as in it's a very good setup? I was responding to blue wave who also lives in Suffolk county. It's good Nassau west. Storms will hit a wall in eastern Nassau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: I think NYC gets in it as well Suffolk has had more severe than NYC proper in the past few years. Since I've been out here the north shore has gotten crushed several times with severe storms and the east end has seen twisters. The Long Island no severe storm song has gotten old and simply isn't true. We see severe with warm fronts and later in the summer when the water is warmer. Happens more on the north shore and east end. This post was meant for yanksfan btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 I remember back in 2004 there was a waterspout that hit the Whitestone bridge I think. Also one in CT that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, psv88 said: Suffolk has had more severe than NYC proper in the past few years. Since I've been out here the north shore has gotten crushed several times with severe storms and the east end has seen twisters. The Long Island no severe storm song has gotten old and simply isn't true. We see severe with warm fronts and later in the summer when the water is warmer. Happens more on the north shore and east end. This post was meant for yanksfan btw Agree on the warm front, but this isn't a warm front setup, it's a classic cold front from the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 14 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: I think NYC gets in it as well I think NYC proper is right on the edge, storms should become elevated as they move East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Agree on the warm front, but this isn't a warm front setup, it's a classic cold front from the West. Right, which is why i told blue wave this was a bad setup for us Suffolk folk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 42 minutes ago, TriPol said: I remember back in 2004 there was a waterspout that hit the Whitestone bridge I think. Also one in CT that year. Sept.2010, 2 separate tornadoes in Queens and also a 100+mph macro burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 If any potential storms are looking to be dead on arrival upon entering the city you can keep em. I'm okay with a regular thunderstorm, it doesn't have to verify as severe, but a brief shower with one faint rumble of thunder is just a waste of everyone's time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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