Jim Martin Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and eastern Iowa Northern and central Illinois Northeast Missouri Lake Michigan * Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 540 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 25 minutes ago, Stebo said: Tornado spotted with the cell moving toward Barrie. Holy crap I just saw the cells, wow! Hook echoes north of me and some forming close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Updated warning statement has baseball size hail with that cell in southern IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 These things are getting going, the other cell has 70mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Tornado warning southwest WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Will have to see how it goes but I do wonder if the better threat ends up being near/south of I-80 in IL... sort of in line with expectations from earlier. Not saying no threat north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Northern IL is right in the line of convergence with those supercells. Certainly hope SPC is correct in their expectations and we don't see anything wind wise like that last night in Nebraska and Kansas. But baseball size hail reports are concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 The storm east of Muscatine, Iowa now has overshooting tops per GOES-16 Visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Gotta watch those storms about to cross the Mississippi. The outflow from the MUT storm is in that area and there is a decent reservoir of 0-1km shear and helicity in that region too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 75 kts at 500mb on OMA VAD(18,000FT) and 65 at DSM impressive for mid June(you can even see the jet max on radar with the weak mid level showers) the poor lapse rates over IL may help to keep this in check some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 The discrete cells are starting to turn into a line now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Cool evolution to the cell that started back by Centerville. It split, now each of those splits (the left and the right) are throwing their own splits again (the left split is throwing a right, and the right throwing another left). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Good to have you checking in regarding your old stomping ground OceanStWx. Keep us abreast of anything you notice that is concerning. I am hoping as was mentioned that lapse rates will work to keep things somewhat modified this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Good to have you checking in regarding your old stomping ground OceanStWx. Keep us abreast of anything you notice that is concerning. I am hoping as was mentioned that lapse rates will work to keep things somewhat modified this evening. The best looking environment does sort of parallel I-74. It's a little more murky NE of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Cell NW of Shelburne, ON has a pretty nasty circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Rain intensity is much less with KLOT's radar vs KDVN. Why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, homedis said: Rain intensity is much less with KLOT's radar vs KDVN. Why is that? I would just guess distance from the radar is a factor. Storms are much closer to KDVN at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 little notch trying to develop over stark county IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 New IWX update still thinking storms will pick up and potentially bow out as they move east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: little notch trying to develop over stark county IL Bright and tight. NROT well over 1. Probably some really strong RFD winds in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 lapes rates have improved slightly from a very weak 5.3 at 18z to modest 6.3 at 00z at ILX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 The part of the line headed towards Chicago is strengthening, Warning issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHI_Weather Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 12 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: The part of the line headed towards Chicago is strengthening, Warning issued. Looks like that storm is aiming for the south burbs, Burbank, Oak Lawn, etc. Wondering how much of Chicago will see a good thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, CHI_Weather said: Looks like that storm is aiming for the south burbs, Burbank, Oak Lawn, etc. Wondering how much of Chicago will see a good thunderstorm. Northern Burbs of Chicago proper just went warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 MCS starting to take off in Central Illinois. Not so much in Northern Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 Sereve warnings have been canceled in the Peoria region?? Flash flood warnings for 3 counties now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: MCS starting to take off in Central Illinois. Not so much in Northern Illinois. Yep...cold pool forming...right down the I-74 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 a couple of things..MLI radar seems to be running a little hot compared to ILX and LOT...someone was mentioning the difference in rainfall rates earlier...so which is correct? also why doesn't LOT reset their storm total precipitation....it's been tallying since last tuesday and is hard to tell what fell recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 907 PM CDT Severe threat appears to be diminishing across northern Illinois and focusing into southern CWA counties with a mainly wind threat based off of latest radar trends. Will be gradually cancelling counties from Severe Thunderstorm Watch where severe risk has ended. Had recently issued a SVR for southern Livingston and far southwest Ford and areas just east of this general corridor appear to have locally highest severe threat now. In addition, northern portion of linear segment if it lays out more west-east could be a focus for flash flooding potential with 2" precipitable water values per SPC mesoanalysis. Even with forward propagation in strongest wind corridor, very efficient rainfall rates have been noted, including 1" in 15 minutes in Woodford County. Castro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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