Powerball Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 The latest NAM supports the SPC shift southward. It does also develop activity in parts of MI behind this morning's remnant MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Instability beginning to build in Western Ohio currently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Somewhat off-topic, but the models screwed the pooch big time with the MCS last night. It's still going strong as it dives south through eastern Oklahoma, and it's actually intensifying somewhat with the onset of daytime heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 1630z outlook seems to be late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 ILX will be having a conference call at 1PM for the NW half of their CWA roughly along and west of I-55 (including SPI and BMI): Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>051-180330- Cass-De Witt-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Marshall-Mason-McLean-Menard- Morgan-Peoria-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford- 1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Illinois and west central Illinois. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... There is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms this evening. Current indications suggest the primary time frame for severe weather will be roughly from 6 pm through 10 pm. Damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes, along with heavy rainfall, will be possible with the storms before they shift rapidly to the southeast later this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... The next chance for thunderstorms will be late Wednesday night into Thursday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will be needed late this afternoon through this evening. The primary time frame will be from 6 pm until 10 pm. A conference call for Emergency Managers will be conducted at 1 pm CDT this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 1630z outlook seems to be late. No notable changes, except accounting for last night's MCS that's still going (though finally diminishing) in OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 2 hours ago, Jim Martin said: Instability beginning to build in Western Ohio currently... Is it just me or are the CAPE values significantly higher than forecast, particularly in Ohio/Michigan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 12 minutes ago, RobertSul said: Is it just me or are the CAPE values significantly higher than forecast, particularly in Ohio/Michigan? They're projected to trend downward from here on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Sticking with low TOR probs, probably a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Clearing line almost here with lots of boiling cumulus behind it. I'd imagine scattered storms will start popping here and there for the remainder of the day. 15z NAM shows good covereage of strong convection after about 00z. After about 04z a lot of the dynamics are out of the window - still convection should be ongoing but likely below severe limits in Michigan anyway. Further south certainly stands the best chance of severe this afternoon and tonight based on just about any model you look at it. Most of Illinois/West Central Indiana stand the best chance at some good boomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Interesting graphic by LOT. Doesn't really match up with SPC at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 11 minutes ago, homedis said: Interesting graphic by LOT. Doesn't really match up with SPC at this point They just put out an updated afd, which sort of explains their thinking on a more northward threat, but they mentioned the uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Tornado warnings for some hook echoes and rotation south of London and near Saint Mary's Ontario. TWN is covering it and a wall cloud was spotted for the one south of London. I'm sunny currently with clouds hanging nearby - storms to my SE. TWN was saying we will get storms today, but the dangerous ones with tornado potential "will be tomorrow". EDIT: Hook already lined out and the complex looks less like a supercell or cell. Rotation also may not be present if TWN's loop and timestamp are accurate. It was present for just one scan. Here is the warning: 1:51 PM EDT Saturday 17 June 2017 Tornado warning in effect for: London - Parkhill - Eastern Middlesex County At 1:51 p.m. EDT, Environment Canada meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm that is possibly producing a tornado. Damaging winds, large hail and locally intense rainfall are also possible. Weather radar indicates rotation in a thunderstorm just to the southwest of London. The thunderstorm is moving to the east at 50 km/h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, Torchageddon said: Tornado warnings for some hook echoes and rotation south of London and near Saint Mary's Ontario. TWN is covering it and a wall cloud was spotted for the one south of London. I'm sunny currently with clouds hanging nearby - storms to my SE. TWN was saying we will get storms today, but the dangerous ones with tornado potential "will be tomorrow". The severe storm just passed thru SW London about 20 minutes ago. We were out in the car at a busy intersection in the worst of it. Not a good feeling to have the car rocking by the winds, hearing the hail ping off various parts of the car, and not being able to see 50 feet in the torrential rain. It's calmed down now, but we have the kitchen ceiling leak to deal with when the rain basically blew the water under the shingles at the side of our house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Looks pretty clear across much of IA and IL...don't think it should be too difficult to destabilize again. *HRRR is not all that impressive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 13 minutes ago, London snowsquall said: The severe storm just passed thru SW London about 20 minutes ago. We were out in the car at a busy intersection in the worst of it. Not a good feeling to have the car rocking by the winds, hearing the hail ping off various parts of the car, and not being able to see 50 feet in the torrential rain. It's calmed down now, but we have the kitchen ceiling leak to deal with when the rain basically blew the water under the shingles at the side of our house. Thanks for the update. Does the leak occur during any other storm or is this the first time because of the high winds? I thought any shingles was suppose to prevent drops from being shoved inside like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Storms may get going near Davenport. KDVN Composite reflectivity is picking up the first 50dbz echoes of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 25 minutes ago, Chinook said: Storms may get going near Davenport. KDVN Composite reflectivity is picking up the first 50dbz echoes of the day. Yeah been watching the towers boiling on the northern portion of the sky for awhile. 84/71 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 26 minutes ago, Torchageddon said: Thanks for the update. Does the leak occur during any other storm or is this the first time because of the high winds? I thought any shingles was suppose to prevent drops from being shoved inside like that. This has happened under the same circumstances once before during a tornado warned storm a couple years ago. We have a 2 story house but the attached garage is one story and I believe if the winds are really strong and are coming from the NW like they appeared to be in this storm, then the rain is being driven along the shingles sideways and where the shingles meet the siding on the house, it is being driven underneath the siding trim into the attic or the rafters and then finds its way into the kitchen. I thought it was a one off last time, but alas here we are again. Not sure what to do about it, but may have someone out to the house that is more knowledgeable to offer an opinion on a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 New D1 outlook includes more of N IL and Chicagoland in the Enhanced "Two changes has been made to the outlook for this issuance. The first change includes adding parts of northern Illinois (including the Chicago vicinity) and northwestern Indiana into the enhanced risk area with a 30 percent probability for wind damage. A 30 percent probability for large hail has also been added into parts of northern Illinois. A corridor of moderate to strong instability is analyzed by the RAP across northern Illinois with a zone of enhanced low-level convergence evident on visible satellite imagery. Convection that initiates along this zone will have a severe threat with a chance for more widespread severe possible...see MCD 1071." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: Looks pretty clear across much of IA and IL...don't think it should be too difficult to destabilize again. *HRRR is not all that impressive though. HRRR has been performing bad lately so I wouldn't worry. Run to run variability has been all over. The wpc highlighted a good portion of northern IL for possible flash flooding and training storms later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 A pretty random T'storm just popped up near the airport. It would be headed this way if it maintains intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: A pretty random T'storm just popped up near the airport. It would be headed this way if it maintains intensity. I don't see anything on radar?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Lapse rates could be a bit better (and antecedent convection is a concern), but tomorrow for the Ontario folks looks pretty legit for the central/eastern parts of the province into the St. Lawrence Valley and perhaps parts of northern New York. Very strong wind fields in place as the shortwave trough swings negatively tilted and a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet streak rounds its base. Hopefully people out in Cottage Country are aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 501 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017 The focus will then shift to the late afternoon/evening timeframe. The current environment features 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE values and effective bulk shear values of 35-50 kts. However, large scale forcing is absent for now and that is why the storms are still subsevere. This will change as a shortwave trough located in central Iowa propagates east this evening. DCVA associated with this trough will promote large scale vertical motion over the CWA. Strong thunderstorms have already started to develop in eastern Iowa and this can be expected in our area later this afternoon. Given the environment discussed, the thunderstorm development will be better organized and the threat for straight line damaging winds and large hail will exist. CAM`s guidance shows organized thunderstorm development in western parts of the CWA by 0100 UTC and moving into the Chicago city limits by 0200-0300 UTC. Once this wave moves through, some of the model guidance suggests another wave of thunderstorms in the early morning hours. However, confidence is not high that the atmosphere will be able to recover during the nocturnal hours, so this will have to be watched closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Very impressive storm heading toward Barrie Ontario right now, good circulation associated with as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 2 hours ago, RobertSul said: I don't see anything on radar?? It pulsed up and dissipated that fast. It was only a few miles wide. Did at least get thunder and a moderate downpour before hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Tornado spotted with the cell moving toward Barrie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Um, 70 dBZ over 30,000 feet near MUT. Look out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Wow those storms are really going in E IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.