OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 1 minute ago, homedis said: That complex is moving at 65mph so that shouldn't be a problem haha. To me it seems the NAM is on track for the most part. I would worry a little about westward extent of the MCS though. If it stretches back west of ICT, it's going to take a while for SW flow to bring that juicy air mass back around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 The 3km NAM clobbers the area around the I-80 corridor tomorrow... Quad Cities eastward through northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The 3km NAM clobbers the area around the I-80 corridor tomorrow... Quad Cities eastward through northern IL. HRRR-TLE getting more and more bullish with each new run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: HRRR-TLE getting more and more bullish with each new run. TLE = Time lagged ensemble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Yeah and the HRRR shows plenty of clearing ahead of the next round tomorrow aft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 This is starting to appear much more interesting with the newer and newer runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: TLE = Time lagged ensemble? Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, homedis said: Yeah and the HRRR shows plenty of clearing ahead of the next round tomorrow aft. 00z HRRRX only out to 17z tomorrow, but is just about spot on with placement of current MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 25 minutes ago, homedis said: Yeah and the HRRR shows plenty of clearing ahead of the next round tomorrow aft. Haven't had a chance to look, but HRRR and NAM were showing most of the ongoing convection falling apart very early tomorrow morning (Saturday). Even so, we shouldn't have a problem recovering if it's early enough and clouds break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Hrrr does rapidly weaken the complex come morning but hard to say this far out if outflow and clouds will stabilize the environment up north. The better shear and forcing will be north but all depends where the cape gradient sets up in relation to that. Not sure what to expect at this point. With ample moisture in place and steep lapse rates approaching and the time of year, it shouldn't be hard to destabilize quickly even with broken cloud cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 48 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: HRRR-TLE getting more and more bullish with each new run. 02z run even more bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Just now, AppsRunner said: 02z run even more bullish I'll be interested to see how they trend from here. Because I feel like some of these rapid increases are because of the model really ramping convection around 00z, and with the 4 hour dependency it was able to "see" more of that intense convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Yeah tomorrow looks pretty legit. Very impressive synoptic setup for mid June. Very potent shortwave that even tries to close off at H5 on the NAM later tomorrow night. The nose of the vigorous upper jet, strong vorticity advection, and nice height falls move over the instability axis at peak heating later tomorrow over Iowa. Storm complex from tonight is the only mitigating factor in tomorrow's setup. As long as we don't see excessive back-building on the western edge of the complex it shouldn't be an issue. The earlier it's influence departs the better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah tomorrow looks pretty legit. Very impressive synoptic setup for mid June. Very potent shortwave that even tries to close off at H5 on the NAM later tomorrow night. The nose of the vigorous upper jet, strong vorticity advection, and nice height falls move over the instability axis at peak heating later tomorrow over Iowa. Storm complex from tonight is the only mitigating factor in tomorrow's setup. As long as we don't see excessive back-building on the western edge of the complex it shouldn't be an issue. The earlier it's influence departs the better though. That's my biggest worry as well because it would really hold the instability gradient south away from the better dynamics and shear north. But man if we get them to overlap we could see something on par with tonight if not worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: That's my biggest worry as well because it would really hold the instability gradient south away from the better dynamics and shear north. But man if we get them to overlap we could see something on par with tonight if not worse Yeah everything else is a go for a fairly widespread severe event. Even with reduced instability I think we'd still be dealing with a fairly impressive, albeit slightly more tame severe threat that would still likely be widespread in coverage. If we can achieve strong instability beneath the incoming synoptic setup noted above then this could be quite the event for a good chunk of the sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Yeah everything else is a go for a fairly widespread severe event. Even with reduced instability I think we'd still be dealing with a fairly impressive, albeit slightly more tame severe threat that would still likely be widespread in coverage. If we can achieve strong instability beneath the incoming synoptic setup noted above then this could be quite the event for a good chunk of the sub.Agreed. Im just unsure if Chicago's off the hook this time or not. Seems like things have been pointing south but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah everything else is a go for a fairly widespread severe event. Even with reduced instability I think we'd still be dealing with a fairly impressive, albeit slightly more tame severe threat that would still likely be widespread in coverage. If we can achieve strong instability beneath the incoming synoptic setup noted above then this could be quite the event for a good chunk of the sub. My early NWS training forecast contest target is SE IA just north of FFL. Not a good time to be on midnight shifts though, part of me wants to wake up a little early for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, homedis said: Agreed. Im just unsure if Chicago's off the hook this time or not. Seems like things have been pointing south but who knows. Honestly, I'd probably rather be south... even south of where I'm at but I'm not dismissing the possibility of something interesting locally. I'd expect a fairly bullish 06z outlook. Perhaps even a moderate risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: My early NWS training forecast contest target is SE IA just north of FFL. Not a good time to be on midnight shifts though, part of me wants to wake up a little early for this. Nice. Yeah that'd be a good place to be based on several of the models rolling in tonight. Northern portion of the instability gradient, and far enough to take advantage of the better incoming synoptic features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Yea I'm liking southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri, and west central Illinois right now for best overlap of instability and shear. Obviously this is subject to change but just initial thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 IWX aviation update clues into what there thinking .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017 Upstream convection from the next system extended from extreme east IA into far southern WI early this morning. Mentioned VCTS at SBN 08-12 as some of these storms may be able to make it into northwest Indiana before they dissipate later this morning. Mentioned VCTS by late afternoon at both sites as daytime heating combined with increasing low level theta e convergence may be enough to trigger a few storms. There will be a much better chance for storms early tonight, especially over northwest Indiana as a more substantial system moves into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Day 1 Enhanced, no real changes from the Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 I will admit I'm surprised the SPC only has 2% Tor probs, especially out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 7 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I will admit I'm surprised the SPC only has 2% Tor probs, especially out west. Think that was the old probability. The new outlook has 2% from TOP through DVN to ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Think that was the old probability. The new outlook has 2% from TOP through DVN to ORD. I meant I'm more surprised at the fact there's not a 5% in Iowa/West Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: Think that was the old probability. The new outlook has 2% from TOP through DVN to ORD. Think he was talking about the IA region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I meant I'm more surprised at the fact there's not a 5% in Iowa/West Illinois Too much uncertainty for that right now. You put it up now and might (most likely?) have to move it at 13z. Might as well just wait until 13z and see how the night played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Too much uncertainty for that right now. You put it up now and might (most likely?) have to move it at 13z. Might as well just wait until 13z and see how the night played out. Ahh, makes sense. Thanks for clarifying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 With pretty late convective initialization times tomorrow I think the SPC could reasonably wait until 1630 to upgrade anything with the advantage of seeing how airmass recovery goes. Kinda surprised they extended the hatched wind/hail so far north in IA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 17, 2017 Share Posted June 17, 2017 Looks like the most recent update has shifted things south a bit with the enhanced now focused along a line from KC to BMISent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.