Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,912
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Lelorum
    Newest Member
    Lelorum
    Joined

June 11-17th Severe Weather

snowlover2

By snowlover2,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

Recommended Posts

OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 6/17/2017 at 3:18 AM, homedis said:


That complex is moving at 65mph so that shouldn't be a problem haha.

Expand  

To me it seems the NAM is on track for the most part. I would worry a little about westward extent of the MCS though. If it stretches back west of ICT, it's going to take a while for SW flow to bring that juicy air mass back around.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 216
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Harry Perry

Harry Perry

Posted
Posted
  On 6/17/2017 at 3:36 AM, homedis said:

Yeah and the HRRR shows plenty of clearing ahead of the next round tomorrow aft.

Expand  

Haven't had a chance to look, but HRRR and NAM were showing most of the ongoing convection falling apart very early tomorrow morning (Saturday). Even so, we shouldn't have a problem recovering if it's early enough and clouds break.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Radtechwxman

Radtechwxman

Posted
Posted

Hrrr does rapidly weaken the complex come morning but hard to say this far out if outflow and clouds will stabilize the environment up north. The better shear and forcing will be north but all depends where the cape gradient sets up in relation to that. Not sure what to expect at this point. With ample moisture in place and steep lapse rates approaching and the time of year, it shouldn't be hard to destabilize quickly even with broken cloud cover

Link to comment
Share on other sites
OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 6/17/2017 at 4:21 AM, AppsRunner said:

02z run even more bullish

Expand  

I'll be interested to see how they trend from here. Because I feel like some of these rapid increases are because of the model really ramping convection around 00z, and with the 4 hour dependency it was able to "see" more of that intense convection.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Yeah tomorrow looks pretty legit.  Very impressive synoptic setup for mid June.  Very potent shortwave that even tries to close off at H5 on the NAM later tomorrow night.  The nose of the vigorous upper jet, strong vorticity advection, and nice height falls move over the instability axis at peak heating later tomorrow over Iowa.  Storm complex from tonight is the only mitigating factor in tomorrow's setup.  As long as we don't see excessive back-building on the western edge of the complex it shouldn't be an issue.  The earlier it's influence departs the better though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Radtechwxman

Radtechwxman

Posted
Posted
  On 6/17/2017 at 4:40 AM, cyclone77 said:

Yeah tomorrow looks pretty legit.  Very impressive synoptic setup for mid June.  Very potent shortwave that even tries to close off at H5 on the NAM later tomorrow night.  The nose of the vigorous upper jet, strong vorticity advection, and nice height falls move over the instability axis at peak heating later tomorrow over Iowa.  Storm complex from tonight is the only mitigating factor in tomorrow's setup.  As long as we don't see excessive back-building on the western edge of the complex it shouldn't be an issue.  The earlier it's influence departs the better though.

Expand  

That's my biggest worry as well because it would really hold the instability gradient south away from the better dynamics and shear north. But man if we get them to overlap we could see something on par with tonight if not worse

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted
  On 6/17/2017 at 4:48 AM, StormChaser4Life said:

That's my biggest worry as well because it would really hold the instability gradient south away from the better dynamics and shear north. But man if we get them to overlap we could see something on par with tonight if not worse

Expand  

Yeah everything else is a go for a fairly widespread severe event.  Even with reduced instability I think we'd still be dealing with a fairly impressive, albeit slightly more tame severe threat that would still likely be widespread in coverage.  If we can achieve strong instability beneath the incoming synoptic setup noted above then this could be quite the event for a good chunk of the sub.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
homedis

homedis

Posted
Posted
  On 6/17/2017 at 4:55 AM, cyclone77 said:
Yeah everything else is a go for a fairly widespread severe event.  Even with reduced instability I think we'd still be dealing with a fairly impressive, albeit slightly more tame severe threat that would still likely be widespread in coverage.  If we can achieve strong instability beneath the incoming synoptic setup noted above then this could be quite the event for a good chunk of the sub.


Agreed. Im just unsure if Chicago's off the hook this time or not. Seems like things have been pointing south but who knows.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 6/17/2017 at 4:55 AM, cyclone77 said:

Yeah everything else is a go for a fairly widespread severe event.  Even with reduced instability I think we'd still be dealing with a fairly impressive, albeit slightly more tame severe threat that would still likely be widespread in coverage.  If we can achieve strong instability beneath the incoming synoptic setup noted above then this could be quite the event for a good chunk of the sub.

Expand  

My early NWS training forecast contest target is SE IA just north of FFL. Not a good time to be on midnight shifts though, part of me wants to wake up a little early for this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
  On 6/17/2017 at 4:58 AM, homedis said:


Agreed. Im just unsure if Chicago's off the hook this time or not. Seems like things have been pointing south but who knows.

Expand  

Honestly, I'd probably rather be south... even south of where I'm at but I'm not dismissing the possibility of something interesting locally.

I'd expect a fairly bullish 06z outlook.  Perhaps even a moderate risk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted
  On 6/17/2017 at 5:01 AM, OceanStWx said:

My early NWS training forecast contest target is SE IA just north of FFL. Not a good time to be on midnight shifts though, part of me wants to wake up a little early for this.

Expand  

 

Nice.  Yeah that'd be a good place to be based on several of the models rolling in tonight.  Northern portion of the instability gradient, and far enough to take advantage of the better incoming synoptic features.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
HillsdaleMIWeather

HillsdaleMIWeather

Posted
Posted

IWX aviation update clues into what there thinking 

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1246 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Upstream convection from the next system extended from extreme
east IA into far southern WI early this morning. Mentioned VCTS
at SBN 08-12 as some of these storms may be able to make it into
northwest Indiana before they dissipate later this morning.
Mentioned VCTS by late afternoon at both sites as daytime heating
combined with increasing low level theta e convergence may be
enough to trigger a few storms. There will be a much better 
chance for storms early tonight, especially over northwest 
Indiana as a more substantial system moves into the area.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
AppsRunner

AppsRunner

Posted
Posted

With pretty late convective initialization times tomorrow I think the SPC could reasonably wait until 1630 to upgrade anything with the advantage of seeing how airmass recovery goes. Kinda surprised they extended the hatched wind/hail so far north in IA though. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...