snowlover2 Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 Enhanced area has been issued for tomorrow for parts of MN/WI. Quote Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of damaging winds and hail is expected on Sunday mainly across central and southern Minnesota eastward across Wisconsin. A couple tornadoes are possible as well. ...Synopsis... Strong w/swly flow aloft will be maintained across the northern Plains, upper MS valley and Great Lakes region around the periphery of the southeastern high and with an active storm track across Canada. At the surface, a warm front will stretch roughly from central MN into WI Sunday morning, lifting northward during the day. A very moist and unstable air mass will already be in place near this front, supporting severe storms without the aid of much heating. Increasing southwesterly 850 mb flow will also enhance lift and moisture flux into the area, possibly supporting multiple eastward-moving storm systems producing damaging winds and hail. ...Eastern SD...central and southern MN...much of WI... Scattered storms, possibly a severe MCS, will be ongoing across eastern SD early Sunday morning near the warm front. This system is expected to gain intensity throughout the day as it travels east into MN, where a very moist and unstable air mass will reside. Models vary with latitudinal position of the warm front, but it should generally stretch from central MN across northern WI at 18Z. Various model solutions are in very good agreement depicting the scenario of a long-lived convective cluster traveling eastward along the warm front during the day, with additional activity possible in the 00-06 time frame northwest of the earlier activity. However, uncertainty exists with the exact location of the warm frontal corridor, thus, the Enhanced Risk area encompasses most model solutions. Aside from the positioning of the warm front, several rounds of storms producing outflow will also have an impact on additional afternoon/evening storms. Damaging winds should be the primary severe hazard, with steep lapse rates aloft also supporting hail. A tornado threat is possible but highly dependent on storm mode being cellular and away from the surging outflows. If the air mass can recover behind the early activity, a couple tornadoes are certainly possible along the warm front. Further, a brief tornado risk cannot be ruled out with any cells that form along the lifting warm front during the day, just ahead of the approaching MCS. ..Jewell.. 06/10/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 1 hour ago, snowlover2 said: Enhanced area has been issued for tomorrow for parts of MN/WI. Models been showing a nice squall line/MCS forming tonight and tracking all the way to the UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 35 minutes ago, Stebo said: Models been showing a nice squall line/MCS forming tonight and tracking all the way to the UP. Yeah the models have been very persistent in insisting the southern 1/3 of MN is gonna get shellacked tomorrow. I'd be feeling pretty good about things if I lived in the MSP/Mankato areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah the models have been very persistent in insisting the southern 1/3 of MN is gonna get shellacked tomorrow. I'd be feeling pretty good about things if I lived in the MSP/Mankato areas. Yep, looks to be a pretty strong MCS as modeled currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 HRRR is looking very ominous for MSP and surrounding areas around mid-morning. Well-developed WAA wing in advance of the incoming linear MCS. Surface cape of up to 3000J/kg and good shear profiles in place ahead of it. Models showing some strong mid-level winds immediately behind the MCS, so a rear-inflow jet or two looks quite possible as the CS propagates quickly eastward. With the shear in place some strong meso-vortices may enhance wind damage in portions of the line, particularly where the surface instability gradient ends up. Think we may see several 65kt+ gust reports pop up on the ol' SPC reports page tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 Definitely strong Derecho potential with that MCS over MN. A ton of lightning with it this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 A 66 MPH wind gust and hail was reported this morning around MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 Some decent wake winds behind the MCS as well... Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 756 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017 MNZ047>049-054>057-064-065-111445- Chippewa-Yellow Medicine-Kandiyohi-Stearns-Renville-Stevens-Pope-Lac Qui Parle-Swift- 756 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017 ...STRONG WINDS TO AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH 10 AM... At 750 AM CDT, strong winds developed on the backside of a large area of thunderstorms now moving through central Minnesota. Winds were gusting 45 to 50 mph in the Benson and Appleton areas around 730 am. These strong winds will likely continue for 2 to 3 hours ...or through 10 or 11 am. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible. Locations impacted include... Willmar, Montevideo, Morris, Benson, Granite Falls, Glenwood, Madison, Dawson, Appleton, Clara City, Starbuck and Renville. Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until these winds subside. LAT...LON 4527 9644 4525 9629 4522 9627 4518 9610 4541 9612 4542 9625 4569 9626 4576 9623 4576 9511 4542 9511 4489 9498 4466 9528 4470 9535 4466 9536 4478 9645 TIME...MOT...LOC 1250Z 240DEG 49KT 4525 9593 $$ DWE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 0986 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0930 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017 Areas affected...East central and southern Minnesota into Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312... Valid 111430Z - 111530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312 continues. SUMMARY...The threat of damaging winds and hail will persist across eastern Minnesota and across much of Wisconsin. An additional watch will be required for the remainder of the Enhanced Risk area. DISCUSSION...A long-lived severe bow echo continues eastward across MN with apex now crossing the MS river. The MCS trails southwestward into south-central MN as well, where eastward motion is slower. A warm front currently extends from the MSP area eastward across central WI. This boundary will continue to lift northward throughout the day, with an increasingly moist and unstable air mass spreading northward ahead of the MCS. Meanwhile, shear profiles in the low levels will also increase due to 30-40 kt 850 mb flow. A damaging wind risk will continue with the bow apex, even though it may remain slightly north of the surface warm front, traveling east-northeastward across northern WI. The slower southern portion of the line may eventually re-organize into a more severe segment as instability and inflow both increase later today. Damaging winds and hail should continue to the be main risks with the MCS. If isolated cells can develop along the warm front, a tornado risk would exist. More likely, the intersection of the MCS/outflow and warm front will pose the greatest tornado threat in QLCS fashion. ..Jewell.. 06/11/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45769288 46448890 46198816 45718764 45248753 44738763 44388791 44008902 43629062 43689235 43859302 44179353 44869361 45329344 45769288 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 Possible tornado currently near Plum City, Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 Over 300 lightning strikes per minute with the MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 Looking like sunny and hot for me today, but it's not uncommon for bow echos in that area to dive southeast along I-94 toward southern Wisconsin, even when none of the forecasts call for them to do so. Keeping an eye on it, as is MKX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 Classic bow echo moving across central Wisconsin this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 Severe Thunderstorm Watch through 5 PM ET/4 PM CT. Large hail & damaging wind risk continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 Best looking bowing MCS this year so far.With it likely to continue into MI, definitely will go down as a derecho, especially using the new definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 11, 2017 Share Posted June 11, 2017 Here is something interesting on this severe squall line at 1238z (7:38AM central time) - a bookend vortex or line-end vortex about 60 mi west of Minneapolis. Sometimes these can form as a cyclonic/anticyclonic pair at the right and left sides of a squall line/bow echo. It's not common for an anticyclonic vortex to form. This one, of course, is cyclonic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Looking like another weather watch could be issued later this evening for areas affected by the bow echo earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 3K NAM this evening crapped out something a little interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 2031 UNK 3 N MACKINAW CITY LHZ345 MI 4582 8473 CAMPER FLIPPED OVER ON MACKINAC BRIDGE. TIME ESTIMATED. (APX)... Was trying to find pics or a news report on that spc storm report, couldn't find one sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 15 minutes ago, smoof said: 2031 UNK 3 N MACKINAW CITY LHZ345 MI 4582 8473 CAMPER FLIPPED OVER ON MACKINAC BRIDGE. TIME ESTIMATED. (APX)... Was trying to find pics or a news report on that spc storm report, couldn't find one sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Day 1 and 2 Marginals. It's definitely summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Might as well do a thread, with yesterday being good and today over-performing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 I moved everything from yesterday into here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I moved everything from yesterday into here. May wanna rename the thread title lol Also, that MCS in Wisconsin is surprisingly good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Central Lower MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Central Lower MI I think this one is going to be more of a US10 corridor hitter. Maybe out toward the Tawas area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Tonight's 3km NAM is showing potential for a thunderstorm complex late tomorrow afternoon and evening across southern Michigan, and into NW Ohio & NE Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 2 hours ago, Jim Martin said: Tonight's 3km NAM is showing potential for a thunderstorm complex late tomorrow afternoon and evening across southern Michigan, and into NW Ohio & NE Indiana. I don't buy its location, there is nothing to shunt the boundary that far south in the state tonight. I mean it will eventually get to this point, but not that early in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Pop up t storms already appearing this Tuesday morning in the 72 dew point air in central and se IN with an outflow boundary from the Wisconsin storms moving southward clearly seen on the LOT radar at this time through the Chi-town area. Hvy rain/flash flood threat at least for IN/OH. Svr warning now for Cincinnati area this noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Wednesday slight risk was expanded east. I am a bit interested in the wind potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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