NJwx85 Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 This is one of those days where 25-30kts of shear would have worked wonders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: This is one of those days where 25-30kts of shear would have worked wonders. And thats in N NY and S Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: And thats in N NY and S Quebec Actually that's as far South as the Central Hudson Valley. Probably why that Dutchess cell has taken off the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 A watch could be issued soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 1010 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Areas affected...Portions of southern New England...southeast NY...northern NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131825Z - 132100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for some severe thunderstorm potential through the afternoon and into the evening. Uncertainty exists regarding the anticipated severe coverage, though the issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be possible across portions of the region. DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s from northern NJ and southeast NY and across southern New England, while the dewpoints have held in the middle/upper 60s. This is contributing to 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with little capping. Meanwhile, along the periphery of subtle midlevel speed maxima crossing northern NY into adjacent New England, and along subtle confluence axes farther south from northeast PA to southern New England, ascent has been sufficient to support initial towering cumulus and isolated thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms will likely increase in number and intensity during the next few hours as diurnal heating continues. A mix of weak supercell structures, and loosely organized convective clusters, may eventually evolve and spread eastward. This will be supported by sufficient deep shear aided by 25-30 kt westerly winds around 4-5 km above ground indicated by the Albany VAD wind profile. Present indications are that severe coverage could be lacking, owing to the lack of stronger deep ascent/shear overlapping with the moderate buoyancy. However, with at least isolated to widely scattered severe hail/wind possible -- especially as convection develops into southern New England -- Watch issuance will be possible. ..Cohen/Hart.. 06/13/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 I can see the tops of the Hudson Valley cells from my office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Going to get one here in about 30-45 minutes...sinking SE quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Going to get one here in about 30-45 minutes...sinking SE quickly out running shear and midlevels are drying out on the nw flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, qg_omega said: out running shear and midlevels are drying out on the nw flow yup-it's dying fast, we won't even get a sprinkle...LOL. NAM nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 I did get a short burst of heavy rain from the first wave and it's just finishing up a second, slightly longer, heavy shot now. It probably only added up to .25-.35" for both but it should put the pollen down and rinse the cars off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Stationary cell is dumping rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 15 minutes ago, Morris said: Stationary cell is dumping rain. Lots of wet Jews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: Lots of wet Jews One of these cells just died. The other is going strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 Big thunder here and warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 Yawn. Weak shear wins as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 Little line forming along N NJ/SE NY. Will it make it to the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 Great seeing today. Think this was that Bergen/Orange County cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 21 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Little line forming along N NJ/SE NY. Will it make it to the city? It's moving so slowly it's hard to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 Little larger than pea size hail and CTG close to house in Vernon. Solid storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 14, 2017 Author Share Posted June 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, Irishmick9 said: Little larger than pea size hail and CTG close to house in Vernon. Solid storm Great, about to get that cell here. My last storm brought the largest hail I've ever seen in person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 Enjoy the storm. Very close strikes, .87 of rain and gusts to 30+. Not severe but solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 40 minutes ago, Irishmick9 said: Little larger than pea size hail and CTG close to house in Vernon. Solid storm My folks in Woodbury told me pea size hail with frequent CTG lightning with that storm in SE Orange County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 Fizzle city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 19 minutes ago, snywx said: My folks in Woodbury told me pea size hail with frequent CTG lightning with that storm in SE Orange County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 1 hour ago, snywx said: My folks in Woodbury told me pea size hail with frequent CTG lightning with that storm in SE Orange County Yeah looks like part of Orange took the brunt and you got screwed. Most of region did. For once, winners here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 14, 2017 Author Share Posted June 14, 2017 Had plenty of lightning here but only light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 Had a thunderstorm in wantagh about 6am. Decent ammount of rain and some thunder. At least we didn't get totally jipped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 28 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Had a thunderstorm in wantagh about 6am. Decent ammount of rain and some thunder. At least we didn't get totally jipped We needed the winds to switch NE behind the backdoor to get the heavier rains here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 Pouring here in borough park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 24 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Pouring here in borough park Nice cell moving through Brooklyn. No wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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