NJwx85 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 The last several model runs have shown dew points well into the 70's combined with temperatures in the 90's and an approaching frontal boundary. These ingredients could combine for a very unstable atmosphere on Tuesday with a good source of lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 GFS CAPE values for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Jason WX said: GFS CAPE values for Tuesday. Those are pretty good values for around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Those are pretty good values for around here Not so much for LI. NYC west looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 10, 2017 Author Share Posted June 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Not so much for LI. NYC west looks great! Those graphics treat LI like it's part of the ocean. LI is unstable too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Those graphics treat LI like it's part of the ocean. LI is unstable too. Good to hear. Area wide instability can't be bad thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Not even a marginal risk from the SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Not even a marginal risk from the SPC Great news Usually the best storms happen when they don't mention anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 12, 2017 Author Share Posted June 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Not even a marginal risk from the SPC A little low in the shear department, but a very unstable atmosphere and good timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 isolated pulse environment, shear and deep forcing are weak...best chance actually would be along a sea-breeze boundary as the front drops down from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 12, 2017 Author Share Posted June 12, 2017 The 12z GFS is looking good. Around 3000 J/KG of SBCAPE. Shear is on the low side but it should be enough to sustain some updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 What did the NAM show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 12, 2017 Author Share Posted June 12, 2017 The GFS is even move unstable than the NAM. As noted, low level shear is weak, but that won't prevent some good thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z GFS is looking good. Around 3000 J/KG of SBCAPE. Shear is on the low side but it should be enough to sustain some updrafts. Not to sway to far off the discussion here, but as I posted in the "Discussion and Obs" thread the 12z GFS was very wet through its entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Marginal Risk for NYC,LI NNJ on north to the mass pike for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 12, 2017 Author Share Posted June 12, 2017 Bumped up to day 2 Marginal risk, bet we wake up to a slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Upton bumped from 30 to 50% for tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted June 12, 2017 Share Posted June 12, 2017 Hoping for at least a shelf cloud tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 So far we're in a marginal risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: So far we're in a marginal risk. Backdoors are notoriously dry. I suspect we do see convection but it's widely scattered. Not like a solid squall line we would see with a front comming from the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Backdoors are notoriously dry. I suspect we do see convection but it's widely scattered. Not like a solid squall line we would see with a front comming from the west How is this is a backdoor when it's coming from the Northwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: How is this is a backdoor when it's coming from the Northwest? The airmass source is closer to a backdoor then a traditional east moving continental airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The airmass source is closer to a backdoor then a traditional east moving continental airmass Okay but storm initiation is over Ontario and then slides Southeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 The NAM has a pretty solid line of storms dropping down through the Hudson Valley and weakening as it crosses NNJ. Still looks good for a storm threat North of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 Marginal risk ticked South and slight risk added for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 HRRR getting more active run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 Storms starting to develop over NE.PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 13, 2017 Share Posted June 13, 2017 3 hours ago, NJwx85 said: The NAM has a pretty solid line of storms dropping down through the Hudson Valley and weakening as it crosses NNJ. Still looks good for a storm threat North of the city. Rgem also has a line of rain/storms dragging south and through the NYC/LI metro. 5pm to 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 Watch this cell in Northern Dutchess. Looks like it will impact a good portion of the Central Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 13, 2017 Author Share Posted June 13, 2017 Pretty solid development now down the line. That Dutchess cell is a bit of a right mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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