2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Windspeed]

I think 1995 only had the one major in the US (Opal- gulf coast), don't remember if there were any east coast landfalls.

 

Do you think 1933's ACE would have been significantly higher if we had satellites back then?  I still find it amazing how it had a higher ACE than 2005, in spite of how much action there was in 2005 and the 4 Cat 5 storms.

 

By 1933 the oceans were full of ships charting pressure and wind. But I mean it's still possible a storm may have been a higher category or one formed and dissipated unbeknownst. It's why I always stress satellite vs pre-satellite era. Either way, 1933 was a monster year.

 

[wxmx]

The 1933 hurricane season featured many long tracked intense cyclones, which racked a lot of ACE points. In 2005, the strongest hurricanes were short tracked and concentrated around the Caribbean and GoM

[Juliancolton]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Wow, 1933 had a higher ACE than 2005 even though 2005 had 4 Cat 5 and the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin? I am amazed!  I wonder how high 1933's ACE would have been if we had satellites back then?

Also, wasn't 1933 more similar to 1995 than it was to 2005 in the sense that neither 1933 nor 1995 had many landfalling systems?

 

 

58 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

By 1933 the oceans were full of ships charting pressure and wind. But I mean it's still possible a storm may have been a higher category or one formed and dissipated unbeknownst. It's why I always stress satellite vs pre-satellite era. Either way, 1933 was a monster year.

 

This paper by Dr. Landsea assumes an undercount bias of 3.2 storms per year on average between 1900 and 1965. This was before reanalysis reached 1933 but there's only so much that project can do if evidence of a storm simply doesn't exist.

[Paragon]

Thanks for the info, guys, since 1995 also had a parade of long track storms, it too must have a pretty high ACE.

That +3.2 is a pretty high figure- if it's applied across the board, although 1933 still wouldn't catch 2005 in quantity, its ACE number would be significantly higher.

 

 

[geoffs]

would the Carribean be able to hold a storm as intense as hurricane patrica?

[Windspeed]

would the Carribean be able to hold a storm as intense as hurricane patrica?

Absolutely and probably has had several even since colonial times.

 

[bluewave]

We may very well have set a new record for the NE Caribbean even going back before the satellite era.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/19/us/hurricanes-irma-harvey-maria.html?mcubz=0

It is also extremely unusual for three major hurricanes to pass through the same region in three weeks, as Irma, Jose and Maria have in the northeastern Caribbean.

The last time the northern Leeward Islands experienced two major hurricanes in the same season was 1899, and now it is looking at three in the same month. 

[Paragon]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We may very well have set a new record for the NE Caribbean even going back before the satellite era.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/19/us/hurricanes-irma-harvey-maria.html?mcubz=0

It is also extremely unusual for three major hurricanes to pass through the same region in three weeks, as Irma, Jose and Maria have in the northeastern Caribbean.

The last time the northern Leeward Islands experienced two major hurricanes in the same season was 1899, and now it is looking at three in the same month. 

Is that part of the basin unusually warm for this time of year, Chris, or is it the fact that we've had these unusual tracks this season?

In 1995 didn't we get a lot of Caribbean hits? And yet no Cat 5.

 

[Paragon]

5 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Absolutely and probably has had several even since colonial times.

 

I think it would be difficult, because at peak intensity Patricia was such an outlier.  When you graph hurricanes along an axis of winds vs pressure, Patricia is as far off the charts as a hypergiant star would be on the H-R diagram- there are only a few of those in an entire galaxy of 200 billion stars, and hurricanes like Patricia must similarly be extremely rare, even going back to prehistoric times.  Patricia being that strong was partly due to the fact that we had a very strong (almost historic) el nino and of course there may be some climate change influence too.  I don't think you could get a Haiyan or Tip in the Atlantic basin either.  Tropical Pacific stored energy is way off the charts compared to any part of the Atlantic and also covers a far larger area.

 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Is that part of the basin unusually warm for this time of year, Chris, or is it the fact that we've had these unusual tracks this season?

In 1995 didn't we get a lot of Caribbean hits? And yet no Cat 5.

 

My guess is that it's related to the record EA index coupled with the much warmer than normal SST departures over the Tropical Atlantic. It created a very unusual pressure pattern back in July and August where lower than normal pressures were found under the record EA ridging to the NE.  There are probably other pieces of the puzzle which may take time to figure out.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/ea_ts.shtml

 

 

 

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that it's related to the record EA index coupled with the much warmer than normal SST departures over the Tropical Atlantic. It created a very unusual pressure pattern back in July and August where lower than normal pressures were found under the record EA ridging to the NE.  There are probably other pieces of the puzzle which may take time to figure out.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/ea_ts.shtml

 

 

 

Thanks, it's interesting to see how the various factors coupled together to produce this kind of result.  Going forward, it's interesting to speculate whether or not the enhanced activity will continue into October like some previous hyperactive seasons have or will there be a notable downturn?  Don't the Gulf and Caribbean seasons actually peak in October?

 

[wxmx]

36 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Thanks, it's interesting to see how the various factors coupled together to produce this kind of result.  Going forward, it's interesting to speculate whether or not the enhanced activity will continue into October like some previous hyperactive seasons have or will there be a notable downturn?  Don't the Gulf and Caribbean seasons actually peak in October?

 

Actually the GoM peaks on September, but the W Caribbean peaks on October. With the current Niña-like conditions, above SSTAs in that region, planetary waves cycles (MJO, CCKW) and the fact that is a nearly cyclone-virgin sub-basin this season, I expect an above average to well above average tropical activity in there for October.

[Paragon]

Just now, wxmx said:

Actually the GoM peaks on September, but the W Caribbean peaks on October. With the current Niña-like conditions, above SSTAs in that region, planetary waves cycles (MJO, CCKW) and the fact that is a nearly cyclone-virgin sub-basin this season, I expect an above average to well above average tropical activity in there for October.

Thanks, Jorge.  That peak in October for the W. Caribbean must be what contributes to that secondary spike overall in the Atlantic Basin.  I've noticed this before, even in hyperactive seasons, that tropical activity seems to fall off a cliff after late October though.  In 2005 we went to the Greek alphabet but never had anything major after Wilma (as far as I remember.)

 

[wxmx]

5 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Thanks, Jorge.  That peak in October for the W. Caribbean must be what contributes to that secondary spike overall in the Atlantic Basin.  I've noticed this before, even in hyperactive seasons, that tropical activity seems to fall off a cliff after late October though.  In 2005 we went to the Greek alphabet but never had anything major after Wilma (as far as I remember.)

 

Hurricane Beta was a short lived major (cat 3) that weakened a bit to cat 2 before landfall in Nicaragua.

[Paragon]

22 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Hurricane Beta was a short lived major (cat 3) that weakened a bit to cat 2 before landfall in Nicaragua.

I remember that now!  Back then we were talking about how the big activity switches to Central America in November.  It's hard to remember anything after Wilma since it broke so many records in the Atlantic Basin.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_most_intense_tropical_cyclones

 

I was looking at this list and how the different basins stack up and it seems like the pressure-wind relationship is different in different parts of the world.  It also makes it somewhat confusing since other tropical organizations use either 3 min or 10 min wind speeds.  Either way, I think I found about 17 storms that were stronger than Wilma (going by wind speed or pressure- most of them were in the West Pac.)  Found this interesting tidbit on Haiyan:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Haiyan

The records set by Tip still technically stand, though with the end of routine reconnaissance aircraft flights in the western Pacific Ocean in August 1987, modern researchers have questioned whether Tip indeed remains the strongest. After a detailed study, three researchers determined that two typhoons, Angela in 1995 and Gay in 1992, registered higher Dvorak numbers than Tip, and concluded that one or both of the two may have therefore been more intense.[21] Other recent storms may have also been deeper than Tip at its peak; for instance, satellite-derived intensity estimates for Typhoon Haiyan of 2013 indicated that its core pressure may have been as low as 858 mbar (25.34 inHg).[22] Due to the dearth of direct observations into these cyclones, conclusive data are lacking.[21]

 

Interesting thing about Tip was that (1) the name wasn't retired for some reason and (2) not only was it the most intense TC we know about, it was the largest on record too.  That's a very rare combination you don't see much and makes me wonder if it could have been even stronger had it been a smaller sized storm.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Tip#Records_and_meteorological_statistics

 

Typhoon Tip was the largest tropical cyclone on record, with a diameter of 1,380 mi (2,220 km)—almost double the previous record of 700 mi (1,130 km) set by Typhoon Marge in August 1951.^[15][16][17] At its largest, Tip was nearly half the size of the contiguous United States.^[18] The temperature inside the eye of Typhoon Tip at peak intensity was 30 °C (86 °F) and described as exceptionally high.^[1] With 10-minute sustained winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), Typhoon Tip is the strongest cyclone in the complete tropical cyclone listing by the Japan Meteorological Agency.^[3]

The typhoon was also the most intense tropical cyclone on record, with a pressure of 870 mbar (25.69 inHg), 6 mbar (0.18 inHg) lower than the previous record set by Super Typhoon June in 1975.

 

 

[Windspeed]

I think it would be difficult, because at peak intensity Patricia was such an outlier.  When you graph hurricanes along an axis of winds vs pressure, Patricia is as far off the charts as a hypergiant star would be on the H-R diagram- there are only a few of those in an entire galaxy of 200 billion stars, and hurricanes like Patricia must similarly be extremely rare, even going back to prehistoric times.  Patricia being that strong was partly due to the fact that we had a very strong (almost historic) el nino and of course there may be some climate change influence too.  I don't think you could get a Haiyan or Tip in the Atlantic basin either.  Tropical Pacific stored energy is way off the charts compared to any part of the Atlantic and also covers a far larger area.

The question was specifically about the Caribbean. TCHP of the Western Caribbean can absolutely allow a storm as intense as Patricia to occur. You just have to have the same upper environment and the cyclone positioned correctly. Patricia formed and bombed to its deepest pressure within 200 miles of becoming a hurricane. SSTs and OHC are cyclic and not the same every year, but the potential is there in the WCARIB just like in the EPAC for conditions that would support a Patricia. As for the rest of the Atlantic? That seems unlikely. Maybe in the GOM directly over the Gulf Loop. The MDR is just not warm enough and the mid-levels probably too dry climatologically speaking.

 

Considering all conditions similar for a cyclone, the biggest issue is internal structure. Wilma could have very well dropped down near to Patricia's pressure reading had it not had a 4nm wide eye chocked off by an ERC. A little bigger eyewall, a longer duration concentric feature, structure and timing are just as critical to break records. Speaking of ERCs, Patricia was going through one as well before landfall. I am certain the same atmopsheric favorability and SSTs to pull off sub-880 pressure would force an ERC as banding would be intense and develop an OEW rather quickly. In other words, those kind of surface pressures and winds are short duration by their very nature. The same environmental conditions that aides in such extreme intensification inevitably causes an ERC.

 

[Paragon]

7 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The question was specifically about the Caribbean. TCHP of the Western Caribbean can absolutely allow a storm as intense as Patricia to occur. You just have have the same upper environment and the cyclone positioned correctly. Patricia formed and bombed to its deepest pressure within 200 miles of becoming a hurricane. SSTs and OHC are cyclic and not the same every year, but the potential is there in the WCARIB just like in the EPAC during an El Nino for conditions that would supported a Patricia. As for the rest of the Atlantic? That seems unlikely. Maybe in the GOM directly over the Gulf Loop. The MDR is just not warm enough and the mid-levels probably too dry climatologically speaking.

Considering all conditions similar for a cyclone, the biggest issue is internal structure. Wilma could have very well dropped down near to Patricia's pressure reading had it not had a 4nm wide eye chocked off by an ERC. A little bigger eyewall, a longer duration concentric feature. Timing is everything. Speaking of ERCs, Patricia was going through one as well before landfall. It is almost certain that the same atmopsheric favorability and SSTs to pull off sub-880 pressure would force an ERC as banding would be intense and develop an OEW rather quickly. In other words, those kind of surface pressures and winds are short duration by their very nature. The same environmental conditions that aides in such extreme intensification inevitably causes an ERC.

The reason Patricia seems to be such an outlier (no other storm in the East Pac came even close to its numbers) was, I think, because of the nearly historic El Nino of the time.  Generally speaking, the top Caribbean storms are more powerful than the top East Pac storms.

But factoring in storm size, intensity, winds, etc., all together- do you feel like Patricia was the strongest storm on record, or do you think that storms like Tip, Haiyan, Meranti, Angela, etc., are in a higher class of TC?  Because of the huge size and depth of warm waters in the West Pac, it seems to me that getting something of that enormous energy into even the Caribbean would be extremely difficult.  Patricia was extremely intense but relatively puny by comparison.

I realize that wasn't the original question, but it got me thinking about the strongest storms on Earth.

[Windspeed]

The reason Patricia seems to be such an outlier (no other storm in the East Pac came even close to its numbers) was, I think, because of the nearly historic El Nino of the time.  Generally speaking, the top Caribbean storms are more powerful than the top East Pac storms.

But factoring in storm size, intensity, winds, etc., all together- do you feel like Patricia was the strongest storm on record, or do you think that storms like Tip, Haiyan, Meranti, Angela, etc., are in a higher class of TC?  Because of the huge size and depth of warm waters in the West Pac, it seems to me that getting something of that enormous energy into even the Caribbean would be extremely difficult.  Patricia was extremely intense but relatively puny by comparison.

I'm just going to say I wish we would have had recon for Haiyan at its peak intensity. Patricia is the strongest storm on record because we had those jaw-dropping recon measurements. Without recon it would have been satellite estimates and we never would have known.

[Paragon]

8 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

14 minutes ago, Paragon said:

The reason Patricia seems to be such an outlier (no other storm in the East Pac came even close to its numbers) was, I think, because of the nearly historic El Nino of the time.  Generally speaking, the top Caribbean storms are more powerful than the top East Pac storms.

But factoring in storm size, intensity, winds, etc., all together- do you feel like Patricia was the strongest storm on record, or do you think that storms like Tip, Haiyan, Meranti, Angela, etc., are in a higher class of TC?  Because of the huge size and depth of warm waters in the West Pac, it seems to me that getting something of that enormous energy into even the Caribbean would be extremely difficult.  Patricia was extremely intense but relatively puny by comparison.
 

I'm just going to say I wish we would have had recon for Haiyan at its peak intensity. Patricia is the strongest storm on record because we had those jaw-dropping recon measurements. Without recon it would have been satellite estimates and we never would have known.

Me too, and Haiyan was probably the most intense landfalling system we've had on record.  I did some volunteer work after Haiyan in Tacloban City and I can't describe how horrifying the damage was- it was like entering a post-apocalyptic world.  Water shortages and cholera outbreaks and people stranded in trees (some alive, many not.)  Entire families obliberated yet somehow a very young child heard crying in a pile of rubble with no one around to tend to them.  But a lot of stories of courage too, with people coming to the aid of those they had never seen before and giving up what little they had to others who needed it more.

 

Crazy to think that another ST of almost the same intensity, Meranti, hit just 3 years later, in the northernmost Philippines.  

 

 

[Amped]

A lot of GEFS members have a monster gyre in the western Caribbean post 240.  The EURO 240 is trying to form a depression there.

The Western Caribbean is the tinderbox of the Atlantic and   in 2005 it put Rita and Katrina to shame when Wilma bombed to 882MB .

[bluewave]

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=PSH&format=CI&pid=201709051836

 

POST TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT...TROPICAL STORM  HARVEY...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1117 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2017

C. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1200 UTC AUG 24 UNTIL 1200 UTC SEP 01
---------------------------------------------------------------------
CITY/TOWN                    COUNTY               ID         RAINFALL
LAT LON                                                       (IN)
DEG DECIMAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1.5 SW NEDERLAND             JEFFERSON           DD7-8920     64.58
29.95  -94.01

1.3 N GROVES                 JEFFERSON           DD7-8906     63.14
29.96  -93.92

[Windspeed]

The 2017 N. Atlantic season has been a doozy. ACE is at 170 and I think it'll eventually surpass 200 before the season concludes. The last time we had three named storms retired was 2008 with Gustav, Ike and Paloma. 2005 had four retired names (should have been five -- sorry, Emily, the earliest Category 5 on record). I would expect the names Harvey, Irma and Maria to be history and hopefully that will be the last for this year.

 

Models hinting at activity in the Western Caribbean. The potential for development in the MDR isn't over though. I think we'll have another Cape Verde hurricane or two. Hopefully the weaker WAR sticks around for a while and spares the Lesser Antilles and Eastern Caribbean any more threats.

 

In the more immediate short-term, the remnants of Lee may be getting rejuvenated. It will be under a favorable upper environment for a few days. Not saying it will become a hurricane, but it has a chance. Obviously, not a threat to anything but shipping interests.

 

Edit: Corrected retired totals as it relates to 2005.

 

[Paragon]

59 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The 2017 N. Atlantic season has been a doozy. ACE is at 170 and I think it'll eventually surpass 200 before the season concludes. The last time we had three named storms retired was 2008 with Gustav, Ike and Paloma. 2005 had four retired names (should have been six -- sorry, Emily, the earliest Category 5 on record). I would expect the names Harvey, Irma and Maria to be history and hopefully that will be the last for this year.

 

Models hinting at activity in the Western Caribbean. The potential for development in the MDR isn't over though. I think we'll have another Cape Verde hurricane or two. Hopefully the weaker WAR sticks around for a while and spares the Lesser Antilles and Eastern Caribbean any more threats.

 

In the more immediate short-term, the remnants of Lee may be getting rejuvenated. It will be under a favorable upper environment for a few days. Not saying it will become a hurricane, but it has a chance. Obviously, not a threat to anything but shipping interests.

 

Thanks, I want to see if we can get to 250+.  Obviously don't want anyone to suffer anymore but it would be nice to have a few long track recurving storms to boost the ACE.

[Paragon]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=PSH&format=CI&pid=201709051836

 

POST TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT...TROPICAL STORM  HARVEY...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1117 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2017

C. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 1200 UTC AUG 24 UNTIL 1200 UTC SEP 01
---------------------------------------------------------------------
CITY/TOWN                    COUNTY               ID         RAINFALL
LAT LON                                                       (IN)
DEG DECIMAL
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1.5 SW NEDERLAND             JEFFERSON           DD7-8920     64.58
29.95  -94.01

1.3 N GROVES                 JEFFERSON           DD7-8906     63.14
29.96  -93.92

Wow, are those the official highest rainfall reports from Harvey?

 

[Windspeed]

Wow, are those the official highest rainfall reports from Harvey?

 

Yes. Insane totals...

1.5 SW NEDERLAND JEFFERSON DD7-8920 64.58 29.95 -94.01

1.3 N GROVES JEFFERSON DD7-8906 63.14 29.96 -93.92

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Yes. Insane totals...
 

Yep, amazing- those are getting in the range of some of the higher rainfall totals during the monsoon season in Cherrapunji.

 

[dan11295]

Kind of getting off topic regarding 2017, but only reason Emily wasn't retired, despite two landfalls as a major (Cat 4 and Cat 3), was that Mexico was known for not requesting retirement of names during that time period.

I agree the Caribbean has to be watch, plenty of fuel there for a strong storm.

[wxmx]

Just now, dan11295 said:

Kind of getting off topic regarding 2017, but only reason Emily wasn't retired, despite two landfalls as a major (Cat 4 and Cat 3), was that Mexico was known for not requesting retirement of names during that time period.

I agree the Caribbean has to be watch, plenty of fuel there for a strong storm.

Stan was retired

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Paragon said:

Wow, are those the official highest rainfall reports from Harvey?

 

Yeah. The full report should be out in early November.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/aep_storm_analysis/

[hlcater]

Looking a bit down the road(240hr "forecast" incoming, brace yourselves). As we open up October, my attention is currently on the Western Caribbean as an area of potential development. This is climatologically favored as the time period where this part of the basin becomes more favored for development. The feature that has my attention is the broad area of general troughiness across the Western Caribbean, evident aloft, but much more prominently at the surface. This large area of negative pressure anomalies would, in theory, lead to increased lift, and subsequently more thunderstorm activity across the Caribbean. Because of this, it would be easier to get a more organized surface low to consolidate in this area with the elevated convection. Compounded with the fact that sea surface temps here are practically boiling, the only variable left would be wind shear(I'm not considering dry air as an issue do to the increased convective activity, and to a lesser extent, the location generally being a bit more moist). The long range weenie GFS has very consistently developed TCs somewhere within this trough the past several runs, not worth delving in to the details here other than noting the general trend.

Nearly all other models(including the ensemble means) show this broad low pressure at the end of their respective ranges as well. Important takeaway being the only thing you can really take away at this range, that it looks very possible for a quite favorable set of conditions to develop in the Caribbean in roughly 10 days or so. 

(Operational models are in line with the ensemble means posted below, but I have refrained from including them due to the nature of operational runs at this time range and post space as this post will be rather long)

EDIT: If I got something wrong here tell me because I want to know. Thanks.

EPS - Surface:

EPS - 500mb

 

 

GEFS - Surface

GEFS - 500mb