2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

GFS has the next system into Georgia/ South Carolina border as a major hurricane.

Florida and Georgia

[Windspeed]

What did David (1979 right?) do post Hispaniola?  Did it enter the Gulf and hit Texas as a Cat 3?  For some reason I think it did, or I might be thinking of a different storm.

 

 

David was a Category 5 landfall. Directly killed thousands in the DR and even more indirect deaths due to the cholera epidemic that broke out afterwards. Even though it weakened significantly, it did regain Category 2 intensity in the Bahamas before straddling the east coast of Florida.

 

The 00z GFS does go quite a bit bonkers on reintensifying the would be hurricane before SE CONUS landfall. But that's out in 200+ hr La La Land.

 

 

 

 

[Heisy]

The 00z CMC along with the GFS and NOW the 00z EURO all show a major TS affecting the SE coast Day 8-12. I could not imagine if FL took another hit that would be devastating 

[Windspeed]

Big changes in the 00z ECMWF downstream. It still brings a hurricane through Lesser Antilles, PR/DR, but swiftly ejects Jose OTS and rebuilds heights over the Mid-Atlantic region. That screams CONUS threat. Also the 500-200 mb analysis looks sobering with regards to both GFS snd Euro through 5 days. We need the vort to take as long as possible in consolidating a core. Otherwise, in the event it gets going, I see little in the way of preventing a period or periods of significant rapid intensification either before or up until interaction with the Greater Antilles. Still too early to rule out the possibility of more latitude gained and another sweep through the more northern Lesser Antilles/Virgin/PR islands as well. And of course the more southern track into Hispaniola is always a recipe for massive loss of life. We don't even have a classified system yet and I'm getting nervous mainly because anywhere near that region right now seems cruel by the Gods. Either way it doesn't look good as this won't avoid land. Best we can hope for is slow development, fast motion and a weaker cyclone.

[Heisy]

^ Awesome post. THe 00z EURO is out to 222 hours for me. It looks like it has a TS (I believe Marie) which is going to be a close call for the Carolinas this run it looks like. All 3 models that I mentioned previously all show a huge HP behind Jose which forms likely because of the big time -PNA/Western US Trough going on. This HP, if modeled correctly, would likely block any TS system from skipping out to sea. 

This is under the radar right now because it is 10 days + away and most eyes are on Jose, but if the models continue to show this by let's say Monday night/Tuesday, hype may start. 

[Heisy]

00z EURO would have probably showed landfall near NC

[shaggy]

9 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

00z EURO would have probably showed landfall near NC

So basically if you blend the GFS,cmc and euro you're looking at least at the threat of some system between NC and Florida again. Still 10 days+ out so lots to change but it will certainly bare watching.

[Paragon]

22 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Big changes in the 00z ECMWF downstream. It still brings a hurricane through Lesser Antilles, PR/DR, but swiftly ejects Jose OTS and rebuilds heights over Mid-Atlantic. That screams CONUS threat. Also the 500-200 mb analysis looks sobering with regards to both GFS snd Euro through 5 days. We need the vort to take as long as possible in consolidating a core. Otherwise, in the event it gets going, I see little in the way of preventing a period or periods of significant rapid intensification either before or up until interaction with the Greater Antilles. Still too early to rule out the possibility of more latitude gained and another sweep through the more northern Lesser Antilles/Virgin/PR islands as well. And of course the more southern track into Hispaniola is always a recipe for massive loss of life. We don't even have a classified system yet and I'm getting nervous mainly because anywhere near that region right now seems cruel by the Gods. Either way it doesn't look good as this won't avoid land. Best we can hope for is slow development, fast motion and a weaker cyclone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wow that IS a big change.  I remember that we were talking yesterday that for what was behind Jose to be a major CONUS threat, Jose had to move out of the way first.

Also with regards to Hispaniola, because of the massive deforestation on the Haiti side of the island, that's a major disaster just waiting to happen (again.)

[Paragon]

22 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

^ Awesome post. THe 00z EURO is out to 222 hours for me. It looks like it has a TS (I believe Marie) which is going to be a close call for the Carolinas this run it looks like. All 3 models that I mentioned previously all show a huge HP behind Jose which forms likely because of the big time -PNA/Western US Trough going on. This HP, if modeled correctly, would likely block any TS system from skipping out to sea. 

This is under the radar right now because it is 10 days + away and most eyes are on Jose, but if the models continue to show this by let's say Monday night/Tuesday, hype may start. 

tropical storm or hurricane in the Carolinas?  The GFS had what looked like a Cat 3 near the GA/SC border.

[Paragon]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

David was a Category 5 landfall. Directly killed thousands in the DR and even more indirect deaths due to the cholera epidemic that broke out afterwards. Even though it weakened significantly, it did regain Category 2 intensity in the Bahamas before straddling the east coast of Florida.

 

The 00z GFS does go quite a bit bonkers on reintensifying the would be hurricane before SE CONUS landfall. But that's out in 200+ hr La La Land.

 

 

 

 

Wow, I know it exceeded Irma in maximum intensity 190 mph vs 185 mph and was second to only Irma in maintaining that intensity for 18 hours, while Irma maintained it for 37 hours.  We'll never know actually how intense these storms were at their peak, but a figure near 170 kt seems likely (or maybe even slightly more.)  David must've also done a number on Haiti, which has been deforested- there must've been some massive floods and tragic loss of life.  I remember after the quake they had there was also a cholera epidemic.

 

[Windspeed]

Wow, I know it exceeded Irma in maximum intensity 190 mph vs 185 mph and was second to only Irma in maintaining that intensity for 18 hours, while Irma maintained it for 37 hours.  We'll never know actually how intense these storms were at their peak, but a figure near 170 kt seems likely (or maybe even slightly more.)  David must've also done a number on Haiti, which has been deforested- there must've been some massive floods and tragic loss of life.  I remember after the quake they had there was also a cholera epidemic.

 

You're mixing David (1979) up with Allen (1980). Allen achieved Cat 5 status three times and one of those periods lasted over 18 hours of highest sustained winds on record in the Atlantic. David was no scrub however. Also, with regards to epidemics, several forms of gastroenteritis has plagued Hispanolia every time it gets smack by a major cyclone or earthquake. DR has faired better in recent decades, especially when compared to Haiti. But David was bad for DR.

 

 

 

 

[Paragon]

30 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

You're mixing David (1979) up with Allen (1980). Allen achieved Cat 5 status three times and one of those periods lasted over 18 hours of highest sustained winds on record in the Atlantic. David was no scrub however. Also, with regards to epidemics, several forms of gastroenteritis has plagued Hispanolia every time it gets smack by a major cyclone or earthquake. DR has faired better in recent decades, especially when compared to Haiti. But David was bad for DR.

 

 

 

 

Thanks- now I realized what happened!  Both of those names are very common and they occurred in back to back years (during a time when the tropics were much quieter- AMO-?) Allen was the Cat 3 landfall in Texas, wasn't it?  It came during a drought and one of the largest heatwaves in CONUS history- the 1980 heatwave that killed hundreds in St Louis and spread from the SW right to the NE and lasted from June through September.

DR is more modernized than Haiti, but if something like this hits there, it'll be big trouble, especially with flooding and landslides.

 

[shaggy]

First visible of the day show 96L looking pretty decent. Wouldn't be surprised if they start advisories at some point today.

[MJO812]

[downeastnc]

there going with a PTC at 11....this one will be a legit threat to the SE it appears, if the modeling is correct of course.....we get another strong cane into the US and its gonna be one heck of a year....

[NortheastPAWx]

I wonder what, if any, impact the eventual remnants of Lee might have on Maria-to-be.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don't think there will be any impact. PTC 15 is going to be moving into the Caribbean or SW Atlantic while Lee will die hundreds of miles to the east of future Maria. 

I agree. The U.S. will need to pay attention to what will become Maria.

[salbers]

As the 10 day GFS suggests, I wonder if the trough in the Rockies will be so slow moving allowing the ridge in the east to build up more.

[Amped]

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php

 

Current ACE scores  we have the lead, we just need a mascot and some drunk fans..

NATL: 132.6

WPAC: 104.7

EPAC: 90.6

[Chinook]

My hurricane Irma loop, based on GOES-16 images throughout much of the lifespan of Irma.

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Hurricane_Irma_IR_loop.html

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Healthy La Nina kicking. Similar to Moderate-Strong years. ENSO's correlation to Atlantic hurricane season is really high. 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Maria happening in unfavorable MJO
 

[wxmx]

The west Caribbean seems poised for an epic season closure from the 2nd week of October and on. I'll give a >50% probability of ending the season with 200+ ACE points.

[geoffs]

what was the record ACE for a season and what are we at now ?

[Windspeed]

what was the record ACE for a season and what are we at now ?

After reanalysis, 1933 had nearly 22 major hurricane days and an ACE of 259. In the satellite era, no surprise that 2005 is tops with 250 ACE. 2017 is currently at 150.

[bobbutts]

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

^ Like a monster, it just eats the island

[Paragon]

On 9/19/2017 at 1:05 PM, Windspeed said:

On 9/19/2017 at 0:55 PM, geoffs said:

what was the record ACE for a season and what are we at now ?
 

After reanalysis, 1933 had nearly 22 major hurricane days and an ACE of 259. In the satellite era, no surprise that 2005 is tops with 250 ACE. 2017 is currently at 150.

Wow, 1933 had a higher ACE than 2005 even though 2005 had 4 Cat 5 and the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin? I am amazed!  I wonder how high 1933's ACE would have been if we had satellites back then?

Also, wasn't 1933 more similar to 1995 than it was to 2005 in the sense that neither 1933 nor 1995 had many landfalling systems?

 

[Windspeed]

Wow, 1933 had a higher ACE than 2005 even though 2005 had 4 Cat 5 and the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin? I am amazed!  I wonder how high 1933's ACE would have been if we had satellites back then?

Also, wasn't 1933 more similar to 1995 than it was to 2005 in the sense that neither 1933 nor 1995 had many landfalling systems?

 

1933 had many landfalling systems compared to 1995.

[Paragon]

6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

1933 had many landfalling systems compared to 1995.

I think 1995 only had the one major in the US (Opal- gulf coast), don't remember if there were any east coast landfalls.

One commonality I do see from the above maps is that they were both mostly Gulf coast (or recurve) seasons (so was 2005.)

Do you think 1933's ACE would have been significantly higher if we had satellites back then?  I still find it amazing how it had a higher ACE than 2005, in spite of how much action there was in 2005 and the 4 Cat 5 storms.