2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[ldub23]

99L explodes another Joe Bastardi myth. When the Euro went loopy and showed a cane off the se coast JB started harping about how an august  cool shot means atlantic tropical activity. all we got and we will get was  a  minimal cane in the one  place  in the tropics that  has been the only favorable  place for  years, BOC. Im baffled that NOAA upped their forecast slightly when the atlantic  is so dry and sheared. This also shows just  how  little SST's matter, at least above  normal SST's. They are above  normal over most  of the atlantic tropics yet the tropics are still choked  by  dry air, shear, and sinking  air. An oddball storm can always happen but  i will be stunned if we break the  non major streak that started after wilma struck FLA.

[NJwx85]

44 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

99L explodes another Joe Bastardi myth. When the Euro went loopy and showed a cane off the se coast JB started harping about how an august  cool shot means atlantic tropical activity. all we got and we will get was  a  minimal cane in the one  place  in the tropics that  has been the only favorable  place for  years, BOC. Im baffled that NOAA upped their forecast slightly when the atlantic  is so dry and sheared. This also shows just  how  little SST's matter, at least above  normal SST's. They are above  normal over most  of the atlantic tropics yet the tropics are still choked  by  dry air, shear, and sinking  air. An oddball storm can always happen but  i will be stunned if we break the  non major streak that started after wilma struck FLA.

We've had six named storms already and it's only August 10th. Some years we barely get any development in June or July at all. The next ten weeks or so is when you start to look for things to ramp up.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This. No one doubts that the SAL and shear to a lesser extent has diminished the potential of what has formed, but we've had six storms and one cane with those conditions. It's not weenie to say that there's a long way to go in the season. Like 88% lol. 

Implying bust this early, where literally one storm can change a region, in the face of conditions that aren't overwhelmingly hostile, is loltastic. Even if we're wholly average the rest of the way, we're not going to be sitting here twiddling our thumbs. 

Not for anything but October has really produced in recent years. Hurricane season doesn't end in late September. Besides, it only takes one storm to make a season memorable. 

1991 only had 8 named storms, but four were canes, and two were majors. 

1992 only had 7 named storms, and Andrew wasn't named until August 17th.

[NJwx85]

As a matter of fact, next Thursday will mark 25 years to the day that Andrew was named.

[Windspeed]

I think we're going to have active late season. Shear and issues with sinking air and SAL won't be as much of a factor by middle September. I expect the period from mid Sept. through the end of Oct. to become hyperactive from the western region of the MDR to the GOM. The strong Azores ridging will back off to the north to relax the SAL and trades. Pressures should come down over the MDR and Bermuda triangle somewhat. And Pacific equatorial waters won't be above normal to induce an inhibiting factor on Atlantic development. Lastly, as stated previously, though above normal Atlantic SSTs are given too much attention, having such an environment last longer into October could pose a threat when other favorable factors align.

[ldub23]

6 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

We've had six named storms already and it's only August 10th. Some years we barely get any development in June or July at all. The next ten weeks or so is when you start to look for things to ramp up.

Lots  of  ham sandwiches getting named. 6 storms and an ACE of  7. pretty sad.

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

I think we're going to have active late season. Shear and issues with sinking air and SAL won't be as much of a factor by middle September. I expect the period from mid Sept. through the end of Oct. to become hyperactive from the western region of the MDR to the GOM. The strong Azores ridging will back off to the north to relax the SAL and trades. Pressures should come down over the MDR and Bermuda triangle somewhat. And Pacific equatorial waters won't be above normal to induce an inhibiting factor on Atlantic development. Lastly, as stated previously, though above normal Atlantic SSTs are given too much attention, having such an environment last longer into October could pose a threat when other favorable factors align.

Yea, it will get active when we begin the slide to winter. How  in the heck did Katrina ever manage to form?

 

 

 

 

 

[Windspeed]

Yea, it will get active when we begin the slide to winter. How  in the heck did Katrina ever manage to form?

 

Katrina is a bad example to use in complaining about above normal background pressures and strong shear. Katrina was a highly sheared system throughout its slow development as it made its way from the MDR. It didn't actually get its act together until it was in the Bahamas.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with your key points, however, comparing any year to 2005 is unwarranted. The 2005 season is a highly anomalous event even compared to the most active Atlantic seasons ever recorded. Ironically, we've had seasons with far more severe long-tracking Cape Verde hurricanes. The majority of landfalling hurricanes in 2005 did not develop until they were in the western MDR, Bahamas or Caribbean. That includes Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, etc. There were many Cape Verde systems that became hurricanes that year, but they meandered up into the central Atlantic and were only a threat to shipping lanes.

 

There have been suppressing features over the eastern MDR the past decade. But there are decadal cycles that fluctuate and change beyond focus of just salinity and El Nino/La Nina. I'd argue the CONUS has just been very lucky the past 10 years with regards to eastern MDR and Cape Verde systems. The features that have held in check a favorable eastern MDR for development and resulting long-tracking Cape Verde systems like Hugo and Isabel have been a blessing for the Antilles and U.S. But that isn't going to remain a permanent phenomenon and we may very well have to deal with both a favorable eastern MDR and active Octobers during the same seasons in the not-too-distant future.

 

 

 

[ldub23]

23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Question. What's your definition of a good season on August 10th?

2004. Alex the first storm of the season formed  i think on the last day of  july. In any case whatever the exact date was you knew 2004 was going to be an interesting season due to Alex becoming such a well formed storm. The first  5 storms of this season were nothings and the way they poofed so fast just meant deadness.

 

1996 another good example.

 

Id be quite happy with 1 or  2 storms by this time as long as they were real storms. And frank simply formed  in the one area during this long dead era where it wasnt totally  hostile.

 

First sign today of JB throwing  in the towel to the season.

 

Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 16m16 minutes ago

Euro out through mid September.. has 80% of normal ace and that is assuming a storm develops next week ( has 100%) not very active looking

[ldub23]

Its pretty clear as we get to the peak of the season the tropics are drying  up and choked with shear. Im sure someone will post a map claiming shear  is below  normal but  99L was married to a ULL blasting  it  with shear.

[ldub23]

1980 another good example. I dont remember it being a  particualrly big number year but  Allen formed  in the deep tropics  on the last day of  July.

[ldub23]

52 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

Katrina is a bad example to use in complaining about above normal background pressures and strong shear. Katrina was a highly sheared system throughout its slow development as it made its way from the MDR. It didn't actually get its act together until it was in the Bahamas.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with your key points, however, comparing any year to 2005 is unwarranted. The 2005 season is a highly anomalous event even compared to the most active Atlantic seasons ever recorded. Ironically, we've had seasons with far more severe long-tracking Cape Verde hurricanes. The majority of landfalling hurricanes in 2005 did not develop until they were in the western MDR, Bahamas or Caribbean. That includes Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, etc. There were many Cape Verde systems that became hurricanes that year, but they meandered up into the central Atlantic and were only a threat to shipping lanes.

 

There have been suppressing features over the eastern MDR the past decade. But there are decadal cycles that fluctuate and change beyond focus of just salinity and El Nino. I'd argue the CONUS has just been very lucky the past 10 years. The features that have held in check a favorable eastern MDR for development and resulting long-tracking Cape Verde systems like Hugo and Isabel have been a blessing for the Antilles and U.S. But that isn't going to remain a permanent phenomenon and we may very well have to deal with both a favorable eastern MDR and active Octobers during the same seasons in the not-too-distant future.

 

 

No doubt some year  in the future will have an interesting cane season, but this year wont  be it. It really  is amazing we can go 12 years without a  major cane.

[Windspeed]

No doubt some year  in the future will have an interesting cane season, but this year wont  be it.

 

 

And that's where I simply have to disagree. As I said before, if environmental/atmospheric conditions improve by mid September over the MDR, SSTs will be there for a whole lot of activity through the end of October. Some of those systems will be majors and it only takes one or two making landfall to change perspectives. We do not have an El Nino this year. And a four-to-five week delay in strong Azores ridging and MDR suppression isn't going to cancel the season when SSTs will remain above normal well into October for the MDR, much more the western Atl.

 

 

[ldub23]

6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

And that's where I simply have to disagree. As I said before, if environmental/atmospheric conditions improve by mid September over the MDR, SSTs will be there for a whole lot of activity through the end of October. Some of those systems will be majors and it only takes one or two making landfall to change perspectives. We do not have an El Nino this year. And a four-to-five week delay in strong Azores ridging and MDR suppression isn't going to cancel the season when SSTs will remain above normal well into October for the MDR, much more the western Atl.

 

 

We will see, but by  mid sept the weather will be sliding  into winter. As far as el nino it doesnt really seem to matter anymore what the  pacific does as the atlantic is always choked with dry air and stifled with shear and sinking air.

 

1988 was another good example  of an interesting season. didnt get going till august but  it was fantastic.

[NJwx85]

5 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Lots  of  ham sandwiches getting named. 6 storms and an ACE of  7. pretty sad.

Would you consider 92 a good season?

[ldub23]

19 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Would you consider 92 a good season?

I actually remember the formation of Andrew. Just shows how bad this season is. Andrew was a ragged open wave near where 99L is now but it was still 10 times better than 99L even then. It was an ok season for everyone except  SFLA.

[ldub23]

JB ups the ante!!!

Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 11h11 hours ago

Ante upped not only cause of time of year, but 500 mb pattern later in month reminiscent of high impact years of 04-05 Interesting

 

 

Of course it doesnt matter what the 500mb  pattern is when the atlantic is a desert.

[ldub23]

JB says the  non-major streak ends this season.

[hlcater]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

JB says the  non-major streak ends this season.

JB also uses the CFS snowfall and weenies out over snowstorms >240hours. I don't take anything he says seriously anymore. 

[Stebo]

19 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

JB also uses the CFS snowfall and weenies out over snowstorms >240hours. I don't take anything he says seriously anymore. 

Good call, and even if JB broken clocks his way into being right it doesn't mean anything. It's like calling for cold and snowy along the coast, eventually he is right but not every year.

[ldub23]

[ldub23]

GFS went on another drug  binge this  morning. Euro showed nothing so nothing will happen.

[ldub23]

23 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Euro for  1st time shows something, though much weaker where GFS has a cane.

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Euro for  1st time shows something, though much weaker where GFS has a cane.

Euro, CMC and GFS all show the tropics becoming active.

NHC just put out a new lemon off the coast of Africa

 

[ldub23]

the  7 so far  might  make a  9 or  10 ACE. Lets see if we get quality from here  on out.

[Amped]

GFS trying to form a triple storm. Euro confused with multiple centers also.

[ldub23]

8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

If you're looking for a season bust, don't look to SSTs as being the reason why it happens lol

You would think we would  have rising air and lower pressures with those warm SST's

[Windspeed]

You would think we would  have rising air and lower pressures with those warm SST's

 

 

I'm not going to type a novel here to explain the processes involved between evaporation rates, boundary layer thermodynamics and remote convection, but understand that sustained organized tropical activity in the MDR requires more than abundant warm SSTs.

 

Plenty of oceanic hot spots exist in tropical waters that experience periods of little-to-no convection due to subsidence and or surface divergence. An active Atlantic MDR and ITZC is highly dependant on large-scale easterly flow and placement/strength of the eastern Atlantic Azores surface ridge. This was briefly touched on earlier in this thread. But I will reiterate its location and strength is critical to interaction of the SAL and suppression and or displacement of surface convergence that assists in tapping a moist boundary layer.

 

The Azores-Bermuda ridge generally tends to weaken or shift west into the Western Atlantic (Bermuda Ridge) by July/August and ease the influence of both SAL and suppression of the ITCZ. This isn't always the case every year but has been more problematic for the MDR in recent years. Amped surface ridging and subsidence has lasted longer and remained stronger in the Eastern Atlantic most years since 2011.

 

 

 

[ldub23]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

I'm not going to type a novel here to explain the processes involved between evaporation rates, boundary layer thermodynamics and remote convection, but understand that sustained organized tropical activity in the MDR requires more than abundant warm SSTs.

 

Plenty of oceanic hot spots exist in tropical waters that experience periods of little-to-no convection due to subsidence and or surface divergence. An active Atlantic MDR and ITZC is highly dependant on large-scale easterly flow and placement/strength of the eastern Atlantic Azores surface ridge. This was briefly touched on earlier in this thread. But I will reiterate its location and strength is critical to interaction of the SAL and suppression and or displacement of surface convergence that assists in tapping a moist boundary layer.

 

The Azores-Bermuda ridge generally tends to weaken or shift west into the Western Atlantic (Bermuda Ridge) by July/August and ease the influence of both SAL and suppression of the ITCZ. This isn't always the case every year but has been more problematic for the MDR in recent years. Amped surface ridging and subsidence has lasted longer and remained stronger in the Eastern Atlantic most years since 2011.

 

 

 

Indeed it has and  i agree above  normal SST's mean nothing  in seasons  like this.

 

By the way, this guy  is saying sept will be dead, and  i agree.

 

Michael Ventrice ✔ @MJVentrice

Today's 12Z ECMWF EPS continue to show development for Atlantic's invest #91L and #92L; Tropics remain active but the active period will end

 

From further reading  it seems he thinks a cane will be hard to come  by for  most  of Sept. I would argue with him on 1 point. I dont consider it  particularly active now.

[Windspeed]

Indeed it has and  i agree above  normal SST's mean nothing  in seasons  like this.

 

 

 

By the way, this guy  is saying sept will be dead, and  i agree.

 

 

 

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice

 

Today's 12Z ECMWF EPS continue to show development for Atlantic's invest #91L and #92L; Tropics remain active but the active period will end

 

 

 

From further reading  it seems he thinks a cane will be hard to come  by for  most  of Sept. I would argue with him on 1 point. I dont consider it  particularly active now.

 

 

I don't think Mike was referring to the extended long range CPC for the month of September but for late EPS and medium range which essentially clues into the last week of August. As for current acitivity, I would only describe it as marginal. I myself am wary of an active MDR until the second week Sept. as I think strong northeasterly surface winds over western Sahara will ease up by then and surface subsidence will decrease overall in the MDR. However there may be brief periods/days of favorability within the MDR as some of these stronger waves/disturbances can pull/wrap a broader southerly moisture envelope into them from the ITCZ. The current train of waves exiting Africa are quite healthy and some of them may close off and organize quickly enough to help counter northeasterly subsidence. As for September and October, I am still onboard for a hyperactive period within MDR.