2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

10 days of sustainable or a spike in climatology

 

[jbenedet]

A bit surprised we don't at least have a lemon for that strong tropical wave south of Bermuda. Both the euro and GFS have this system maintaining nascent tropical cyclone characteristics over the next 72 hrs as it continues west south west towards Florida.

[CheeselandSkies]

Still a bit of disturbed weather over far northern South America into the SW Carribean in the area that gave rise to Nate, too. With its overall weakness until near the Yucatan Channel and quick motion, I doubt that storm made much of a dent in the TCHP.

[olafminesaw]

What's the furthest East an East moving hurricane has traveled? Ophelia seems rather unusual in that regard.

[hlcater]

20 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

What's the furthest East an East moving hurricane has traveled? Ophelia seems rather unusual in that regard.

While I can't confirm this. Alex 2016 was pretty Far East, so were Vince and Epsilon 2005.

[Windspeed]

ACE stands at 208.2 after Nate.

 

Ophelia was just classified and is forecast by Stewart to slowly intensify over the next three days. Environmental conditions will improve and be sufficient for Ophelia to reach hurricane intensity. A remote possibility this could affect the Azores this weekend or early next week depending on a central Atlantic mid-level trough, but Ophelia will mostly likely just be a nuisance to shipping interests. From a climatological and historical sense, Ophelia could be memorable if the cyclone reaches hurricane intensity. It would set a record for most hurricanes to form in order since meteorological charting and maritime record keeping improved across the Atlantic Basin in the late 1800s. But it would certainly be a first during the satellite era and will add another impressive statistic to an already hyperactive season.

 

Looking ahead, the disturbance NE of Puerto Rico is associated with a mid-level low interacting and enhancing convection over a weak surface trough and wave. I don't see anything remotely organized at the surface but some of the models do try to close off a surface vortex as this feature moves close to the Bahamas. They may be working the mid-level low down or closing off an LLC just behind it with time. I'm not all that enthusiastic about development but this disturbance will be moving into Florida and eastern Gulf this weekend so it should be watched.

 

There's another tropical wave in the MDR SW of the Cape Verde's that has spotty convection but nothing organizing short term.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Maybe another La Nina wave coming in 2-3 Weeks. 

[Windspeed]

According to tropical climatologist Dr. Phil Klotzbach, 1893 is supposedly the last time we had 10 hurricanes to form in a row. So Ophelia and the 2017 N. Atlantic season has tied the record. My apologies as I thought 9 was the record. That is a bit anticlimatic as it's a tie as opposed to a tie-break, but incredibly impressive for the satellite era besides -- inaccuracies in 1800s maritime meteorological charting be damned! Has the Atlantic got one more in it this year?
 

[Amped]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

According to tropical climatologist Dr. Phil Klotzbach, 1893 is supposedly the last time we had 10 hurricanes to form in a row. So Ophelia and the 2017 N. Atlantic season has tied the record. My apologies as I thought 9 was the record. That is a bit anticlimatic as it's a tie as opposed to a tie-break, but incredibly impressive for the satellite era besides -- inaccuracies in 1800s maritime meteorological charting be damned! Has the Atlantic got one more in it this year?
 

Amazing, especially after 2013  and most of the seasons in the last decade this was hard to imagine.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

New La Nina wave kicking in. Should be more activity 7+ days

[Windspeed]

We've got a few new areas to watch. 92L has been classified an invest due to clear evidence of cyclonic turning near the surface. It is currently positioned under an upper low and thunderstorm activity is displaced to the east of the surface circulation. The disturbance should lift just north of the Antilles and may pass through a more favorable environment. As such, the NHC has given it a 30% chance to develop in 5 days.

Also, though not mentioned in the outlook, there is a tropical wave 800 miles or so SE of 92L in the ITCZ. Deep convection has persisted most of the day near 47W but we haven't had a clean ASCAT of the area. It needs to gain some latitude, but I think it's worth noting as it is located under a more favorable upper environment if something can spin up under the concentrated convection. Nothing is showing up yet in modeling however.

[Windspeed]

With Ophelia doing her thing, ACE is now at 216.1 for the N. Atlantic. Climatological mean is 89.7 through 10/13.

[Santa Claus]

2005-level season no question.  2005 is the only season I can think of with such consistently over-performing storms.

Meteorology is an amazing hobby, I feel badly for anyone that can't appreciate this stuff.  They're missing a show.

[Windspeed]

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I think the high activity will continue. 

[LithiaWx]

21 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

2005-level season no question.  2005 is the only season I can think of with such consistently over-performing storms.

Meteorology is an amazing hobby, I feel badly for anyone that can't appreciate this stuff.  They're missing a show.

Why did this season overperform?  Lots of questions to be answered.  05 to 17 decreased activity bookended by two amazing seasons.  Lots to learn here 

[Amped]

Euro has a slow moving ~1008mb low off the TX/LA coast  day 7-10. 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

Why did this season overperform?  Lots of questions to be answered.  05 to 17 decreased activity bookended by two amazing seasons.  Lots to learn here 

1) Record SST increase in late August

2) Very favorable combination of La Nina and QBO following the QBO disruption last year

3) Near record+ EA index

4) Interruption of dry and stable MDR UA pattern of recent years

5) Probably some other factors that are yet to be discovered with the Hadley circulation

[Windspeed]

With Ophelia becoming post-tropical, ACE is now 223.2 (90.9). The Tropical Atlantic looks kind of ho-hum right now. The invest 92L has a nice MCS tonight but it's under a sheared environment. The NHC has a 30% chance of a hybrid or subtropical storm in few days after interaction with an advancing cold front. The tail end of that same frontal boundary is flaring up convection in the west-central GOM.

Next weekend, modeling wants to break off energy and form a closed upper low near Texas or the northern Gulf coast. Long range GFS hints at something forming in the W. Caribbean. That setup could get something to move or develop up into the Gulf. But this stuff is way out in long range fantasy. Otherwise, the ITCZ and MDR look quiet, as does the W. Caribbean for now.

After nine consecutive weeks of hyper activity, we may finally be getting a breather.

 

Edit: Corrected total ACE to account for last advisory.

[Amped]

18z GFS hs an impressive storm that takes a Wilma like Track. Like Nate there's a bunch of competing centers   preventing a huge bomb. 

This run has me excited cause whatever forms stalls over the TCHP hotspot for 48hrs, lots of potential there if competing centers get sorted out quicker.

[Chinook]

With 51.25 hurricane days this season, this season ranks 5th on the all time list of hurricane days per season. It is behind 1995 , 1933, 1893, and 1926

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=northatlantic

[klw]

To be taken with a huge grain of salt, for 5 straight runs the GFS has something developing to the east of the Yucatan/Belize around the 28th.  The results and course then all vary tremendously.

[Windspeed]

To be taken with a huge grain of salt, for 5 straight runs the GFS has something developing to the east of the Yucatan/Belize around the 28th.  The results and course then all vary tremendously.

Not to be outdone, but the ECMWF resolves a weak surface trough east of Nicaragua. Granted, it is not as aggressive as the GFS and is reluctant to close off anything beyond weak vorticity, but that isn't as significant in mid-to-long range versus the overall surface pattern. Eventually a tropical wave is going to move into this feature so I think the chances of something developing are decent and are likely to improve as modeling progresses this feature into the weekend. It will also help if the MJO phase can back off being in such a suppressed regime.

[Amped]

GFS and CMC show something forming in the in the western Carib day6.5  due to a front moving in.  You can see right when the H5 troff shifts the winds to south GFS starts brewing something, although it takes several more days to get it's act together.  Euro is different with the evolution of the troff and weaker with the Atlantic high. Not sure if either of those are causing the storm not to form.

[Windspeed]

00z GFS and ECMWF models back off much of anything in the medium-to-long range. Surface trough is too far SW and everything is either over C. America or kicked out into the E. Pac. Perhaps a weekend of slow model watching aside from any climatological favorability. I still think we get another storm out of the SW or W. Caribbean, but it may just be too long range for any ops to simulate with consistency in successive runs right now.

 

[Amped]

12z GFS shows a storm forming day 5 near, dissipating over Nicaragua and then reforming north of Honduras day 9 and becoming a Hurricane.  Sounds like Harvey and Lee.

CMC  moves this storm over Cuba before it can intensify much.

[Amped]

Todays GFS and Euro seem to be ejecting whatever does form and slingshotting it around a developing coastal. Funny the CMC has been showing this for days.  It usually forms too many TCs but it's odd for it to beat the GFS and the Euro on the track.  

Won't have much time to strengthen  before hitting Cuba, but all we need is a 65kt CAT1 for the record, seems achievable.

[Windspeed]

Modeling remains inconsistent with development in the W. Caribbean. Both means are favorable but the ops cannot seem to get a handle on the surface trough, shifting from east/favorable to west/unfavorable and over central America the past three days. I have lost confidence with vorticity forming in a position and having enough time to really get going into a hurricane. Climatology is such that the area still needs to be watched, but the MJO is not exactly ideal. Unless the trend changes in the major models for successive runs and convection ramps up IRL over the area in question, I am just going to doubt cyclogenesis has any real chance to produce something strong. It's a big meh right now. All in all, the season has gone quiet.

 

[Amped]

All models have backed off on development. Kind of interesting that we had late October Caribbean systems every year from 2005-2013,  now they seem to be impossible to get.  Also there's a central atlantic cutoff day10, if you're watching for the Hurricane streak record.

[Windspeed]

2 hours ago, Amped said:

All models have backed off on development. Kind of interesting that we had late October Caribbean systems every year from 2005-2013,  now they seem to be impossible to get.  Also there's a central atlantic cutoff day10, if you're watching for the Hurricane streak record.

 

We did have Major Hurricane Otto in the SW Caribbean late in the 2016 eason and we may still get development in the W. Caribbean before the 2017 season is over. We could have had development sooner than later the past week had the surface trough been further east off of Colombia and more confined over the sea versus elongated over Nicaragua to El Salvador. But it is what it is..

Interestingly, cyclogenesis may occur just off the coast of Costa Rica. May have to dust the cobwebs off the EPAC thread.