2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[bluewave]

Remarkable rise in MDR SST's to record levels during late August right before the historic hurricane outbreak.

 

 

[Amped]

Haven't seen any sub 990mb tropical systems in the basin on a model run in a few days. Possibly a good sign. 

 

GFS and ECMWF have backed off on anything in the western Caribbean in the medium range, and CMC of course still has it. 

 

12z GFS is picking up a couple of weak circulations near the leeward Islands day 5-9.  That has been the hot spot this year.

[stormtracker]

17 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

This slopgyre is boring and won't produce much of anything 

 Looking a ton better for me than 2 days ago.  

[Chinook]

My Hurricane Maria long IR loop. Warning -- 29 megabytes, but it's worth it if you have the connection.

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Hurricane_Maria_IR_loop.html

[Chinook]

Note: I may have made my loop too long. Either that, or it is taking me too long to load it for some reason. I will work on a fix for this.

[Chinook]

Temporary fix. Use this link to load my loop of Hurricane Maria

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Hurricane_Maria_IR_loop_A.html

[Amped]

On 9/30/2017 at 1:18 PM, Amped said:

Haven't seen any sub 990mb tropical systems in the basin on a model run in a few days. Possibly a good sign. 

 

GFS and ECMWF have backed off on anything in the western Caribbean in the medium range, and CMC of course still has it. 

 

12z GFS is picking up a couple of weak circulations near the leeward Islands day 5-9.  That has been the hot spot this year.

Still no 990mb lows on any model run.   However the track of the vortex on the 12z Euro raises concerns of an Opal like storm.     The 850mb vortmax is over water from 48-150hrs. 

That gives enough time to strengthen into a major hurricane if the system can consolidate early enough. I'm not saying this is likely, it's just more likely than it was with yesterdays track.

 

 

[Seminole]

Area just SSW of Jamaica is interesting.  

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-animated.gif

[jbenedet]

Euro and GFS/Gefs want to develop a weak TC in the western Caribbean over the next 72 hrs and send it into the central Gulf. Def something to watch considering that track and agreement inside 72 hrs....

[Amped]

12z Gfs now shows a cat 1. Pretty big change.

[Windspeed]

The NHC may have to shift or expand its area of possible cyclone development southeast to cover the disturbance and also increase its chances of becoming a cyclone. It looks like banding is already developing on the eastern side of a surface low. There is a weak TUTT just to the north that is progressing west. That may lift the distrubance N-NW into a favorable environment tomorrow. This looks legit and we may have a depression sooner than later.

[jbenedet]

37 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The NHC may have to shift or expand its area of possible cyclone development southeast to cover the disturbance and also increase its chances of becoming a cyclone. It looks like banding is already developing on the eastern side of a surface low. There is a weak TUTT just to the north that is progressing west. That may lift the distrubance N-NW into a favorable environment tomorrow. This looks legit and we may have a depression sooner than later.

NHC gives it a mandarin (40% chance) as of 2 pm.

Most importantly though, they have it moving N/NNW into/towards the Gulf, which would preclude land interaction.

[hlcater]

37 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The NHC may have to shift or expand its area of possible cyclone development southeast to cover the disturbance and also increase its chances of becoming a cyclone. It looks like banding is already developing on the eastern side of a surface low. There is a weak TUTT just to the north that is progressing west. That may lift the distrubance N-NW into a favorable environment tomorrow. This looks legit and we may have a depression sooner than later.
 

Nice call.

 

Quote

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea.  Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
within the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northward
across the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and into
the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend.  Regardless of development, this
system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central
America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

 

[Windspeed]

NHC gives it a mandarin (40% chance) as of 2 pm.

 

Most importantly though, they have it moving N/NNW into/towards the Gulf, which would preclude land interaction.

 

The center may get close or cross over far eastern Honduras / northern Nicaragua Wednesday night into Thursday. There will probably be some land interaction, but the center should cross back over the W. Caribbean and intensify, should an organized core develop. The upper environment looks decent enough for it to do so. Unfortunately to Stormtracker's chagrin, this will probably also interact with the Riviera Maya coast and northeast Yucatan. I think this even has a good shot of being a hurricane by then.

[jbenedet]

9 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The center may get close or cross over far eastern Honduras / northern Nicaragua Wednesday night into Thursday. There will probably be some land interaction, but the core should cross back over the W. Caribbean and intensify. The upper environment looks decent enough for it to do so. Unfortunately to Stormtracker's chagrin, this will probably also interact with the Riveria Maya coast and northeast Yucatan. I think this even has a good shot of being a hurricane by then.

 

Yea I don't disagree, especially the way this season has gone with TC's outside of high shear environments...

This one looks like it could surprise to the upside early on the way most reliable guidance is already latching onto the idea of developing this into an organized TC. 

[Windspeed]

Yea I don't disagree, especially the way this season has gone with TC's outside of high shear environments...

 

This one looks like it could surprise to the upside early on the way most reliable guidance is already latching onto the idea of developing this into an organized TC.

 

Well barring significant land interaction, it won't take much upper atmospheric favorability for something to intensify rapidly over such high heat content right now. We'll obviously be watching this closely. This is in the climateological wheelhouse to be a high impact event.

 

[Windspeed]

The ECMWF is now also agressive with development. That's a dangerous track and obviously has downstream implications for the northern Gulf Coast.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

The NHC may have to shift or expand its area of possible cyclone development southeast to cover the disturbance and also increase its chances of becoming a cyclone. It looks like banding is already developing on the eastern side of a surface low. There is a weak TUTT just to the north that is progressing west. That may lift the distrubance N-NW into a favorable environment tomorrow. This looks legit and we may have a depression sooner than later.

Ugh.  Looks to be in and out by way of the Yucatan tho and looks overnight Friday, which I guess I can handle.  Hope it doesn't get organized until it's north of my latitude

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

 

The center may get close or cross over far eastern Honduras / northern Nicaragua Wednesday night into Thursday. There will probably be some land interaction, but the center should cross back over the W. Caribbean and intensify, should an organized core develop. The upper environment looks decent enough for it to do so. Unfortunately to Stormtracker's chagrin, this will probably also interact with the Riviera Maya coast and northeast Yucatan. I think this even has a good shot of being a hurricane by then.

It is what it is.  Looks like a relatively quick mover and not a direct hit.  I'm pulling for Nicaragua to wound it before it can get cranking.  

[NavarreDon]

So we have 90L?


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[Windspeed]

It is what it is.  Looks like a relatively quick mover and not a direct hit.

Yeah, based on the current ECMWF track. But we don't have a specific center position to give better model guidance just yet. Recon is investigating so we should have a better idea on the 00z guidance tonight. It's still early though. Going to need a little luck. Hopefully it won't screw up your flight plans or at least won't hang around your location more than a day if it does track close.

[stormtracker]

Just now, Windspeed said:

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It is what it is.  Looks like a relatively quick mover and not a direct hit.
 

Yeah, based on the current ECMWF track. But we don't have a specific center position to give better model guidance just yet. Recon is investigating so we should have a better idea on the 00z guidance tonight. It's still early though. Going to need a little luck. Hopefully it won't screw up your flight plans or at least won't hang around your location more than a day if it does track close.

That's my main worry, United cancelling on me.  Flight leaves at 8am Friday and gets there at 11:30a.

[Windspeed]

So we have 90L?


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Yes. Also...

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS........(CHANGED)
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF NICARAGUAN COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 04/1400Z
D. 11.5N 82.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Windspeed]

My earlier comment about recon investigating was false. Recon is for tomorrow afternoon. My eyes read that as today but 04/1730. But they have estimated a center with the invest so the 18z and 00z models should still be better guidance as far as initial land interaction for Central America and then the Yucatan.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

low shear, favorable setup

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/wrf/wrf_shear.html

 

 

 

[Amped]

18z gfs has a 988mb at 72hrs. Probably a hurricane before it leaves the Caribbean.  This is escalating quickly.

[Eskimo Joe]

Advisories being initiated at 11am...TD 16.

[RU848789]

deleted, wrong thread...

[Windspeed]

A disturbance at low latitude deep in the MDR/ITCZ looks interesting on satellite, but modeling support is nil. A 1010mb low resolves but vanishes into the surface trough that stretches to Northern Brazil. The upper environment doesn't look bad at that low latitude, but there is an upper trough and hefty shear to the north in the coming days. I don't know what if any attention the NHC will give this unless it starts expanding in deep convection or resolving better in the models. It would also need gain some longitude and and slip under the western ridge to survive.

[Amped]

9 Hurricanes in a row, the record is 10 set back in 1878 and 1893. 91L needs to become a hurricane to tie the record.   No model shows it but models are often too weak with cold to warm core systems in the east Atlantic.   It's stalled over 26-27C ssts for 5 days and if the GFS and Euro aren't deepening it below 1006mb, they're probably wrong.

 

Later next week models are showing another possible system off the east coast or in the gulf. Too much spread to guess any details.