MattPetrulli Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 A couple of areas to watch in the next few weeks as models have been hinting at something in the GOM by mid month and the wave train getting going pretty early into the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Thanks for kicking this off, sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted June 9, 2017 Author Share Posted June 9, 2017 GFS and its ensembles, CMC, and Euro all develop a system in the western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico next week. Been run to run consistency for the GFS now for about 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted June 10, 2017 Share Posted June 10, 2017 GFS since at least 18z last night showing a large western Caribbean GYRE type of low pressure development possibly leading to tropical cyclone development, the 00z CMC and EURO develop a tropical storm of some intensity as well from this system around the 18/19th of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted June 11, 2017 Author Share Posted June 11, 2017 All major models now hinting development in the Gulf of Mexico. I'll probably make a thread on this once it gets closer and an invest area is created. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 Tropical development at 20% five day chance for the disturbance near 20W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 CMC, GFS Para, and NAVGEM all showing a storm making landfall around Destin, FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 Our tropical wave is growing in organization quickly, nice spin to it, good moderate sized convection staying persistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 GFS/GFS Para/Canadian have hints of a tropical storm near western FL, as well as a separate storm near Trinidad and Tobago. FL storm may have a lot of 200-850mb shear on the north side if it forms. ECMWF has a broad low pressure in southern Gulf/Bay of Campeche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 Our Cabo Islands wave is showing excellent divergent pattern aloft or outflow pattern aloft with convection developing over the center of circulation, development odds should be higher this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 Circulation at the low levels developing over the western Caribbean Sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 12z GFS is a Caribbean Cruiser for our central Atlantic disturbance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 main circulation centers at low and mid levels appears to be organizing just northeast off the coast of the nation of Honduras east of the Belize coastline and east of Swan Island. This system could intensify a moderate clip now as circulations appear deep to mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 From the NHC: NHC will be initiating advisories at 5 PM AST on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, located east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 When did 35 kts not become the threshold for tropical storm status? "Potential Tropical Cyclone Two" is a 35 kt depression at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 1 hour ago, WhiteoutWX said: When did 35 kts not become the threshold for tropical storm status? "Potential Tropical Cyclone Two" is a 35 kt depression at the moment. It doesn't have a well defined center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 1 hour ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: It doesn't have a well defined center So is it not actually a depression then? I guess I need to read up more on this new Potential Tropical Cyclone term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 1 hour ago, WhiteoutWX said: So is it not actually a depression then? I guess I need to read up more on this new Potential Tropical Cyclone term A new product that started this year. It allows NHC to issue tropical related watches/warnings when a potential development is approaching land. Certainly, beats having to issue tropical storm warnings if a system develops 6 hours before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 ok, that makes sense. just was wondering on that terminology myself. but now, we have Bret headed into a very politically unstable Venezuela, and soon to be named TS Cindy headed to New Orleans to dump a bunch of rain. fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 19, 2017 Share Posted June 19, 2017 Is "Tropical Depression" a term that will continue to be used? I assume it will be, but neither of these disturbances have been given a "T.D." status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 It's amusing how bad the NAM and NAM nest are with tropical cyclones. 3km NAM develops Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 into a Cat 1 shortly before landfall late Wednesday/early Thursday... I'm reminded of how the NAM/4NAM rapidly strengthened Hermine shortly before landfall as well last year (which did happen, to a degree). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 The forecast reminds me a lot of Tropical storm Lee in 2011. Big slopgyre that drifted into the northern gulf coast. It produced a lot of rain. To be clear, I am not calling for a redux in the Mid Atlantic since it is not forecast to stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 looks like light snow is affecting Florida and Georgia now. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted July 1, 2017 Share Posted July 1, 2017 Looking at the long term GFS on Tropical Tidbits it looks like the GFS OP has something right off the coast of Florida around day 10 or so. I do not see it anywhere else though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted July 1, 2017 Author Share Posted July 1, 2017 GFS backed off on the AEW in the Atlantic, but 18z picked up again with a nice system coming out of it. Plenty of time to watch this as it evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 3, 2017 Share Posted July 3, 2017 Could Hurricane Donny hit Mar-A-Lago?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 4, 2017 Share Posted July 4, 2017 NHC has given invest 94L in the MDR a 70% chance of cyclone formation over next 48hrs. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with the broad area of low pressure centered about 800 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has not become any better organized today. Environmental conditions are still favorable for a tropical cyclone to form within the next day or two while the low moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Forecaster Avila Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 5, 2017 Share Posted July 5, 2017 94L likely has a weak closed surface low but convection and better surface convergence is predominately displaced west of the center in response to mid-level easterlies. I don't think 94L is quite there just yet. But if it can align, well, you folks know the drill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 I know this is model watching, and no other model shows it, but for 4 runs in a row the GFS has had a pretty significant tropical system hitting anywhere between FL and MA just beyond truncation. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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