Summer 2017 Banter Thread

[Dan76]

um...what?

[Rtd208]

Another DT (WxRisk) Irma update.

https://www.wxrisk.com/its-florida-and-miami-is-in-big-trouble/

[CIK62]

Model Data Output for Miami from 0Z GFS:

http://68.226.77.253/text/GFS/GFS_KMIA.txt

Basically 12" of rain, 12 hours of hurricane force winds, gusting up to 125mph, based on the 925mb height winds.   This of course says nothing directly about the storm surge.

[MJO812]

Time to track Jose

[David-LI]

Jose is coming to New York! No way Jose!

[CIK62]

Nice loop by Jose and still a menace for us 9/19-20.

[MJO812]

Euro and GFS threatens our area with Jose

[bkviking]

52 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro and GFS threatens our area with Jose

Lets finally do this. I've heard of a kind of  Fujiwara effect where the remnant Irma swings Jose back towards coast. But haven't looked at upper air which could support this. No doubt I want it. 

[Dan76]

[MJO812]

EPS is still all over the place but it's normal this far out

We track

[WeatherFeen2000]

[NycStormChaser]

10 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

What is this?

[dmillz25]

1 hour ago, seanick said:

What is this?

The MAM model

[Dark Star]

I feel bad for the people who lost everything during Irma, but it could have been far worse if it went up the eastern coast.  I knew the storm surge would not be nearly as bad as predicted.  Correct me if I am wrong, but the worst hurricane surges occur just to the NE of the eye.  In this case, there was no water, only land to the NE of the eye.  The Keys and extreme SE Florida got wicked surge, fer sure.  Then, the hurricane sucked in air over Florida, and created a large dry slot.  I assume the NHC knew this?  Certainly TWC was unaware.

 

[MJO812]

Jose is looking interesting on all the models

 

[forkyfork]

*except for the best one

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 hours ago, Dark Star said:

I feel bad for the people who lost everything during Irma, but it could have been far worse if it went up the eastern coast.  I knew the storm surge would not be nearly as bad as predicted.  Correct me if I am wrong, but the worst hurricane surges occur just to the NE of the eye.  In this case, there was no water, only land to the NE of the eye.  The Keys and extreme SE Florida got wicked surge, fer sure.  Then, the hurricane sucked in air over Florida, and created a large dry slot.  I assume the NHC knew this?  Certainly TWC was unaware.

 

All that captured surge that had built up over its life as a cat 5 got displaced when it made landfall in Cuba. That's why we didn't see a Katrina situation where despite a drop in winds the surge corresponded to a 5. This of course being in the central keys. Where they did likely have a low end 4 surge which is bad enough. It's just another example of how Cuba saved Florida. I'm sure we will see pics in the coming weeks of extreme Katrina type surge damage from the low lying Cuban cays which apparently had a lot of resorts on them. Also the lowest parts of the Turks and Caicos. Luckily Barbuda is at a relatively high elevation which means the damage there was done by wind which makes it that much more amazing. Ef 4 tornado damage from a hurricane. Normally only seen in super typhoons like hyian 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

All that captured surge that had built up over its life as a cat 5 got displaced when it made landfall in Cuba. That's why we didn't see a Katrina situation where despite a drop in winds the surge corresponded to a 5. This of course being in the central keys. Where they did likely have a low end 4 surge which is bad enough. It's just another example of how Cuba saved Florida. I'm sure we will see pics in the coming weeks of extreme Katrina type surge damage from the low lying Cuban cays which apparently had a lot of resorts on them. Also the lowest parts of the Turks and Caicos. Luckily Barbuda is at a relatively high elevation which means the damage there was done by wind which makes it that much more amazing. Ef 4 tornado damage from a hurricane. Normally only seen in super typhoons like hyian 

Can only imagine what the US hurricane hurricane history would have been like if the geography was a little different. Numerous hurricanes over time have been disrupted by Hispanoilia, Cuba, and the Yucatan.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Can only imagine what the US hurricane hurricane history would have been like if the geography was a little different. Numerous hurricanes over time have been disrupted by Hispanoilia, Cuba, and the Yucatan.

Very good thought. Shredola especially has destroyed many many canes. I think without them Florida and the gulf coast would be very dangerous place to live with many more cat 5 hits. Without Cuba and probably to some extent Hispaniola irma would have probably been a high end 5 in the keys. Further up the dry air would have disrupted it down to a high 4. Damage potential infinitely higher 

[Rtd208]

DT (WxRisk) on Jose.

https://www.wxrisk.com/jose-and-the-3-choices/

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Very good thought. Shredola especially has destroyed many many canes. I think without them Florida and the gulf coast would be very dangerous place to live with many more cat 5 hits. Without Cuba and probably to some extent Hispaniola irma would have probably been a high end 5 in the keys. Further up the dry air would have disrupted it down to a high 4. Damage potential infinitely higher 

David in 1979 was an example of a cat 5 hitting the Dominican Republic and coming out a much weaker hurricane. It ran right up along the Florida East Coast and into Georgia. It's ET surprised forecasters at the time as it began to rapidly deepen again while over Central PA. We had sustained winds of 45 with gusts over 60. That was also the first tornado watch I can remember going through on Long Island. I can remember getting driven to school in tropical storm conditions.

[dmillz25]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

David in 1979 was an example of a cat 5 hitting the Dominican Republic and coming out a much weaker hurricane. It ran right up along the Florida East Coast and into Georgia. It's ET surprised forecasters at the time as it began to rapidly deepen again while over Central PA. We had sustained winds of 45 with gusts over 60. That was also the first tornado watch I can remember going through on Long Island. I can remember getting driven to school in tropical storm conditions.

My mom lived in Santo Domingo at the time and she said that was the worst storm she ever experienced. It leveled almost everything in it's path.

[bluewave]

52 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

My mom lived in Santo Domingo at the time and she said that was the worst storm she ever experienced. It leveled almost everything in it's path.

No doubt, it was a real disaster on the island. For our area, it was one of the biggest weather surprises of the 1970's.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<3268%3APTCRIA>2.0.CO%3B2

An analysis is conducted from a potential vorticity (PV) perspective of the reintensification of Tropical Storm David over the northeastern United States in September 1979. David, a major long-lived hurricane, originated near the Cape Verde Islands in late August 1979. It made final landfall in Georgia on 4 September 1979 and weakened rapidly thereafter. The noteworthy aspect of David was its subsequent reintensification approximately 27 h after landfall as a warm-core disturbance in a weakly baroclinic environment. In this regard the redevelopment of David is unlike the classical extratropical transformation of a tropical storm in a strongly baroclinic environment that has been documented in the literature. The authors' analysis of the evolution of the dynamical tropopause subsequent to storm landfall revealed that David reintensified in response to “tropopause lifting” (upward displacement of the dynamic tropopause) ahead of a nondeepening and otherwise very weak upper-tropospheric disturbance. The “tropospheric lifting,” associated with both advective and diabatic warming poleward and eastward of David, resulted in steepening of the tropopause and compaction of the PV maximum associated with the weak upper-tropospheric disturbance. As the compacted upper-level trough accelerated north-eastward, the associated ascent and low-level horizontal convergence were rendered especially efficient in generating cyclonic vorticity by the neutral stability (relative to the moist adiabat) of the moist tropical air mass surrounding David and the presence of the preexisting low-level vorticity maximum associated with the remnant tropical storm circulation.

[dmillz25]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No doubt, it was a real disaster on the island. For our area, it was one of the biggest weather surprises of the 1970's.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<3268%3APTCRIA>2.0.CO%3B2

An analysis is conducted from a potential vorticity (PV) perspective of the reintensification of Tropical Storm David over the northeastern United States in September 1979. David, a major long-lived hurricane, originated near the Cape Verde Islands in late August 1979. It made final landfall in Georgia on 4 September 1979 and weakened rapidly thereafter. The noteworthy aspect of David was its subsequent reintensification approximately 27 h after landfall as a warm-core disturbance in a weakly baroclinic environment. In this regard the redevelopment of David is unlike the classical extratropical transformation of a tropical storm in a strongly baroclinic environment that has been documented in the literature. The authors' analysis of the evolution of the dynamical tropopause subsequent to storm landfall revealed that David reintensified in response to “tropopause lifting” (upward displacement of the dynamic tropopause) ahead of a nondeepening and otherwise very weak upper-tropospheric disturbance. The “tropospheric lifting,” associated with both advective and diabatic warming poleward and eastward of David, resulted in steepening of the tropopause and compaction of the PV maximum associated with the weak upper-tropospheric disturbance. As the compacted upper-level trough accelerated north-eastward, the associated ascent and low-level horizontal convergence were rendered especially efficient in generating cyclonic vorticity by the neutral stability (relative to the moist adiabat) of the moist tropical air mass surrounding David and the presence of the preexisting low-level vorticity maximum associated with the remnant tropical storm circulation.

Yeah second worst hurricane there behind the 1930 hurricane. By the way that was a very interesting read.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

No doubt, it was a real disaster on the island. For our area, it was one of the biggest weather surprises of the 1970's.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<3268%3APTCRIA>2.0.CO%3B2

An analysis is conducted from a potential vorticity (PV) perspective of the reintensification of Tropical Storm David over the northeastern United States in September 1979. David, a major long-lived hurricane, originated near the Cape Verde Islands in late August 1979. It made final landfall in Georgia on 4 September 1979 and weakened rapidly thereafter. The noteworthy aspect of David was its subsequent reintensification approximately 27 h after landfall as a warm-core disturbance in a weakly baroclinic environment. In this regard the redevelopment of David is unlike the classical extratropical transformation of a tropical storm in a strongly baroclinic environment that has been documented in the literature. The authors' analysis of the evolution of the dynamical tropopause subsequent to storm landfall revealed that David reintensified in response to “tropopause lifting” (upward displacement of the dynamic tropopause) ahead of a nondeepening and otherwise very weak upper-tropospheric disturbance. The “tropospheric lifting,” associated with both advective and diabatic warming poleward and eastward of David, resulted in steepening of the tropopause and compaction of the PV maximum associated with the weak upper-tropospheric disturbance. As the compacted upper-level trough accelerated north-eastward, the associated ascent and low-level horizontal convergence were rendered especially efficient in generating cyclonic vorticity by the neutral stability (relative to the moist adiabat) of the moist tropical air mass surrounding David and the presence of the preexisting low-level vorticity maximum associated with the remnant tropical storm circulation.

Wow, before i was born but another interesting weather event I was unaware of. 60mph+ gusts in September must have done a good amount of tree damage on the island. 

Do you have any info or recollection of belle? That's a hurricane that's barely ever talked about

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Wow, before i was born but another interesting weather event I was unaware of. 60mph+ gusts in September must have done a good amount of tree damage on the island. 

Do you have any info or recollection of belle? That's a hurricane that's barely ever talked about

Belle was my first hurricane living in Long Beach. Winds and tides were similar to the March 2010 storm.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just now, bluewave said:

Belle was my first hurricane living in Long Beach. Winds and tides were similar to March 2010.

That's what I figured from what info I have been able to find about it. I'm sure it was worse out on the east side of the track. 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That's what I figured from what info I have been able to find about it. I'm sure it was worse out on the east side of the track. 

The core actually held together pretty well for a weakening Cat 1 crossing the South Shore. There was still lightning in what was left of the NW eyewall when it went over Long Beach with torrential wind driven rains.

[uncle W]

in 1889 the area was battered by a tropical storm that took an unusual track...

1889...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50407551

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1889-09-13/ed-1/seq-1/

1889's rainfall had some tropical help.
Interesting track for this storm.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlant...889/4/track.gif

Hurricane Donna hit NYC in 1960 on this date...

[Stormlover74]

It just goes to show how difficult it is to get a Cat 5 make landfall in the US. It either needs to go into the Gulf like Camille or unimpeded north of the islands like Andrew. Even if Irma hadn't interacted with Cuba I doubt it would've maintained 160-180 mph winds, especially once north of the keys