Summer 2017 Banter Thread

[Rtd208]

Time to start boarding up the windows and mass evacuations per 18z GFS Irma track. lol

You also may want to call this guy.

 

 

[bluewave]

43 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

104 now. All time record high

Yeah, I just saw the update.

ALL-TIME RECORD high temperature broken in San Francisco. 104 degrees as of 2:43 pm PDT. #CAwx #CAheat #heatwave

[Cfa]

104 in San Francisco today. Unbelievable.

30 degrees above average, I couldn't imagine such a departure from normal here during the warm season. That'd be 115 here in July, or 110 today.

[NEG NAO]

The problem with this 18Z GFS solution is the water temps up this way will not support a CAT 4 or 5 Hurricane 936 = 27.64 - Very Unlikely

 

[NJwx85]

That's one hell of a PRE before the hurricane ever arrives.

[NJwx85]

21.7" max rainfall on the 18z GFS

[NJwx85]

Also 90+ mph winds right into NY harbor and much higher than that on LI.

[NJwx85]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

The problem with this 18Z GFS solution is the water temps up this way will not support a CAT 4 or 5 Hurricane 936 = 27.64 - Very Unlikely

 

No but a high end cat 2 is possible. It's hauiling too.

[NEG NAO]

15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

No but a high end cat 2 is possible. It's hauiling too.

Using 1985's  Gloria as an example of a hurricane taking a similar track : This is more realistic :

46  38.40  -74.50 09/27/12Z   85   951 HURRICANE-2
47  40.60  -73.30 09/27/16Z   75   961 HURRICANE-1

 

Also 1944's Hurricane similar in path

 

Date: 09-16 SEP 1944
Hurricane-4 7
ADV  LAT   LON       TIME     WIND  PR  STAT
  1  20.80  -58.50 09/09/06Z   45     - TROPICAL STORM
  2  21.20  -59.70 09/09/12Z   50     - TROPICAL STORM
  3  21.60  -61.00 09/09/18Z   55     - TROPICAL STORM
  4  22.00  -62.30 09/10/00Z   60     - TROPICAL STORM
  5  22.50  -63.60 09/10/06Z   65     - HURRICANE-1
  6  23.00  -65.00 09/10/12Z   70     - HURRICANE-1
  7  23.60  -66.30 09/10/18Z   75     - HURRICANE-1
  8  24.30  -67.40 09/11/00Z   80     - HURRICANE-1
  9  25.00  -68.10 09/11/06Z   85     - HURRICANE-2
 10  25.50  -68.70 09/11/12Z   90     - HURRICANE-2
 11  25.70  -69.20 09/11/18Z   95     - HURRICANE-2
 12  25.80  -69.90 09/12/00Z  105     - HURRICANE-3
 13  25.90  -70.60 09/12/06Z  110     - HURRICANE-3
 14  26.20  -71.50 09/12/12Z  115   943 HURRICANE-4
 15  26.60  -72.80 09/12/18Z  120     - HURRICANE-4
 16  27.00  -74.00 09/13/00Z  120     - HURRICANE-4
 17  27.60  -74.70 09/13/06Z  120     - HURRICANE-4
 18  28.50  -75.10 09/13/12Z  125     - HURRICANE-4
 19  29.70  -75.50 09/13/18Z  125     - HURRICANE-4
 20  31.20  -75.70 09/14/00Z  120     - HURRICANE-4
 21  32.70  -75.70 09/14/06Z  110     - HURRICANE-3
 22  34.50  -75.40 09/14/12Z  105   940 HURRICANE-3
 23  37.10  -74.70 09/14/18Z  100     - HURRICANE-3
 24  39.90  -73.20 09/15/00Z   90   954 HURRICANE-2
 25  40.90  -72.20 09/15/02Z   90   954 HURRICANE-2
 26  41.40  -71.60 09/15/04Z   85   957 HURRICANE-2
 27  42.00  -71.00 09/15/06Z   65   966 HURRICANE-1
 28  44.20  -68.50 09/15/12Z   55   982 EXTRATROPICAL STORM
 29  46.00  -63.70 09/15/18Z   50     - EXTRATROPICAL STORM
 30  47.80  -58.20 09/16/00Z   45     - EXTRATROPICAL STORM
 31  49.90  -52.60 09/16/06Z   40     - EXTRATROPICAL STORM
 32  52.00  -47.00 09/16/12Z   35     - EXTRATROPICAL STORM

[SnoSki14]

As far as Irma goes, either the trough creates enough of a weakness so it goes OTS, the trough lifts out in time and a ridge rebuilds to force it towards the SE or the trough cuts off and we see something similar to the 18z gfs. 

The timing of Irma and the synoptic evolution will be everything (like it usually is). 

[NortheastPAWx]

Not to go O/T (in a banter thread  ) but Gloria was a significant hit to NEPA also. Pounded the area with 6"+ of rain. Can see here even what happens inland when a hurricane bowls in - classic news/oldies station WARM-AM 590 reporting flooding and an EBS activation for a possible dam break.

 

[Rtd208]

The 0z GFS is once again showing an impressive PRE dropping 6-8" of rain in our area later next week/weekend prior to the potential arrival of Irma along the east coast.

[doncat]

August finished here with a departure of -2.1 degrees...it was the 8th coolest in 40 years and the mean max temp finished at 2nd coolest. Met summer finished -0.5 degrees and was the coolest since 2009...Precip of 15.37" is about 1.5" above normal. Also it's been a wet 12 months with 54.60" falling.

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

The 0z GFS is once again showing an impressive PRE dropping 6-8" of rain in our area later next week/weekend prior to the potential arrival of Irma along the east coast.

6Z gfs shows a direct hit from Irma

[NEG NAO]

06Z GFS continues the string of run after run of the next to impossible - Cat 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall over southern NJ at about 935 and still 944 over Central NJ

[Paragon]

13 hours ago, Cfa said:

104 in San Francisco today. Unbelievable.

30 degrees above average, I couldn't imagine such a departure from normal here during the warm season. That'd be 115 here in July, or 110 today.

Going to hit 110 today in Sacramento and 100 possibly in Portland.

[Paragon]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

06Z GFS continues the string of run after run of the next to impossible - Cat 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall over southern NJ at about 935 and still 944 over southern NJ

huh why were the people in the tropical thread saying it was out to sea?  That's probably what the 1821 hurricane looked like

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Paragon said:

huh why were the people in the tropical thread saying it was out to sea?

what model were they referring too ? The Euro made landfall over South Carolina - the GEM comes up the coast but only goes out to 240 hours sitting well off of North Carolina at 962 - slower and weaker 

[NortheastPAWx]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

what model were they referring too ? The Euro made landfall over South Carolina - the GEM comes up the coast but only goes out to 240 hours sitting well off of North Carolina at 962 - slower and weaker 

EPS members were largely OTS.

[Paragon]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what model were they referring too ? The Euro made landfall over South Carolina - the GEM comes up the coast but only goes out to 240 hours sitting well off of North Carolina at 962 - slower and weaker 

looks like he changed his post, he confused Euro Ens with 6z GFS lol

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

EPS members were largely OTS.

did they post anything past 240 hours ?

[Isotherm]

1 hour ago, doncat said:

August finished here with a departure of -2.1 degrees...it was the 8th coolest in 40 years and the mean max temp finished at 2nd coolest. Met summer finished -0.5 degrees and was the coolest since 2009...Precip of 15.37" is about 1.5" above normal. Also it's been a wet 12 months with 54.60" falling.

 

-1.2 for the summer here. Cooler than 2014 and coolest since 2009. -2.7 August, -0.2 July, and -0.7 June. Precip only 8.75" here, and 35.74" for the year to date.

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, Isotherm said:

 

-1.2 for the summer here. Cooler than 2014 and coolest since 2009. -2.7 August, -0.2 July, and -0.7 June. Precip only 8.75" here, and 35.74" for the year to date.

el nino pattern without an el nino

[MJO812]

57 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

EPS members were largely OTS.

EPS has been flip flopping more than a fish out of water

[NJwx85]

The GFS depiction is like a mix between Sandy and Floyd here, pretty scary. Hurricane force winds and nearly 20" of rain in spots. PWAT's peak at just under 3" which we haven't seen since Irene. 

[Rtd208]

Did the Euro show any kind of a PRE here like the GFS is?

[MJO812]

[NEG NAO]

The Delmarva Nightmare :

 

[forkyfork]

details aren't important right now. the consistent left hook is alarming though

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

details aren't important right now. the consistent left hook is alarming though

922 CAT 5 Hurricane on the Delmarva Coast is very Unlikely because the water temps can't support it - plus the GFS ensembles have not been in agreement with the OP on previous runs - their tracks have been  basically further south .............