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Summer 2017 Banter Thread


dmillz25

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December snow depth in NYC every three days starting Dec. 1st...

..............................December....................

year....01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31

51-52....0...0...0...0...0...2...1...0...0...0...0.....

52-53....T...2...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...3....

53-54....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0....

54-55....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0.....

55-56....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...3...T...0...T....

56-57....0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...T.....

57-58....0...8...1...0...1...T...0...0...0...0...0.....

58-59....0...0...0...2...1...1...T...0...0...0...0.....

59-60....0...0...T...0...0...0...0.14...4...T...0.....

60-61....0...0...0...0.15.10...7...2...1...T...T.....

61-62....0...0...0...1...0...0...0...0...6...3...1.....

62-63....0...0...T...1...T...T...0...3...T....0...0.....

63-64....0...0...0...0...T...T...1...T...6...5...2.....

64-65....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...1...0...0...0.....

65-66....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0.....

66-67....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...T...7...5...T.....

67-68....3...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...1...3.....

68-69....0...0...0...0...0...5...1...T...0...2...0.....

69-70....T...0...T...0...0...0...T...0...2...4...2.....

70-71....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...2...T...0...0.....

71-72....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...T.....

72-73....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....

73-74....0...0...0...0...0...2...3...T...0...0...0.....

74-75....0...0...0...T...0...0...T...0...T...0...0.....

75-76....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...2...1...0...0.....

76-77....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...2.....

77-78....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0.....

78-79....0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....

79-80....0...0...0...0...0...0...3...T...0...0...0.....

80-81....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...T...T...0....

81-82....0...0...0...T...0...T...0...T...0...0...0.....

82-83....0...0...0...0...3...0...0...0...0...0...0.....

83-84....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...1...T...0....

84-85....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...2...0.....

85-86....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...T...0....

86-87....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....

87-88....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...2.....

88-89....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0.....

89-90....0...T...0...0...T...1...T...0...0...T...T....

90-91....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...7...0.....

91-92....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....

92-93....0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...T...0...0.....

93-94....0...0...0...0...2...0...0...0...T...0...4.....

94-95....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....

95-96....1...0...0...T...0...1...5...7...3...2...1.....

96-97....0...0...T...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....

97-98....0...0...0...T...0...0...0...T...0...0...0.....

98-99....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...1...0...T.....

99-00....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...T...0.....

00-01....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...T...0...0.12.....

01-02....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....

02-03....0...0...5...1...0...0...0...0...5...2...0.....

03-04....0...0.13...6...T...T...0...0...0...0...0.....

04-05....0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...2...0.....

05-06....0...2...1...6...3...T...0...0...0...0...T.....

06-07....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....

07-08....0...0...T...0...T...1...0...0...0...0...T...

08-09....0...0...0...0...0...1...4...3...0...0...T....

09-10....0...0...0...0...0...0...9...7...2...0...1.....

10-11....0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0...0.18.13.....

11-12....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0....

12-13....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...T...0...0...0.....

13-14....0...0...0...1...0...3...3...0...0...0...T....

14-15....0...0...0...1...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....

15-16....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....

16-17....0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0...0.....

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

My memory may not be what it should but I remember seeing quite a few growing up. I spent 3-5 days a week on the beach in either Belle Harbor or Lido for 15 years and can remember at least a couple a year. Nothing big or dangerous but numerous enough that I didn't think of them as being especially rare.

20 years life guarding at jones beach and I agree they arent that rare. They are generally smaller though. I have seen a few that size. We had one at jones yesterday as well. Our beach is super wide with at least five times the width of the beach in Long Beach. I would think that greatly increases their likelihood. The biggest I saw had to have winds of 60-70mph and even impaled a women with an umbrella. (She sued and NY state and won 100k)

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On 8/13/2017 at 4:49 PM, bluewave said:

It has a very +PDO (NDJ) look to it with a deep Aleutian Low and downstream ridge over Western NOAM across the top to Western Greenland. Now whether it has a clue is another story that will have to wait until then. A very front-loaded winter look with a mild Feb after a colder start.

Sounds like 1960-61?

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13 hours ago, Isotherm said:

2005 had a nice 2 week stretch the first half of December, 2002 was also one of the best Decembers in my memory with a SECS on the 5th and a snowy Christmas night. 2000 was a good front loaded winter with the MECs during the holiday week and cold January. IIRC, while not a great winter, 98-99 featured some snow around Christmas. Edit - yes, 2 to 4" event through NJ on the 23rd-24th of 1998. Not sure what NYC recorded.

NYC had 5" from that event in March 1998, if it wasn't for that, NYC would have had their least snowiest season on record, since they had only 0.5" before that.  Philly only had a T for the entire season.

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17 hours ago, BxEngine said:

14 years ago today the lights went out

That was also the hottest day of a pretty mild winter, I believe the high was 95.  The lights went out here around 4:30 PM that Friday afternoon and stayed out all night, and it was a very warm, calm night.  It was the longest black out I'd experienced until the Sandy blackout, which lasted for 25 hours here and was a much colder black out......

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10 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

20 years life guarding at jones beach and I agree they arent that rare. They are generally smaller though. I have seen a few that size. We had one at jones yesterday as well. Our beach is super wide with at least five times the width of the beach in Long Beach. I would think that greatly increases their likelihood. The biggest I saw had to have winds of 60-70mph and even impaled a women with an umbrella. (She sued and NY state and won 100k)

You must have been lucky since I grew up at the beach and boardwalk and never saw one in person. The one in France recently made all the news broadcasts.

 

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2003-04 was a front loaded winter...It did have a late season snowfall in March after a benign February...front loaded should not include February...by mid February 1961 the pattern changed and it had a three week thaw until March 10th...by then it was to late for any more blizzards on the coast...1987-88 was front loaded in the city...most of the snow fell in Dec and Jan...1970-71 was front loaded in the city...inland was a different story...2010-11 should be considered front loaded...most of the snow fell in Dec-Jan...

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12 minutes ago, uncle W said:

2003-04 was a front loaded winter...It did have a late season snowfall in March after a benign February...front loaded should not include February...by mid February 1961 the pattern changed and it had a three week thaw until March 10th...by then it was to late for any more blizzards on the coast...1987-88 was front loaded in the city...most of the snow fell in Dec and Jan...1970-71 was front loaded in the city...inland was a different story...2010-11 should be considered front loaded...most of the snow fell in Dec-Jan...

The 2015-2016 and 2010-2011 were my favorite winters of the 2010's so far. 2016 for the historic January blizzard and first 0 since 1994. 2010-2011 for the greatest 3 snowstorms in a row in around a month.

Here are my favorite winters

2015-2016

2010-2011

2002-2003

1995-1996

1993-1994

1982-1983

1981-1982 for April blizzard even though it was in spring

1977-1978

1976-1977

 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The 2015-2016 and 2010-2011 were my favorite winters of the 2010's so far. 2016 for the historic January blizzard and first 0 since 1994. 2010-2011 for the greatest 3 snowstorms in a row.

Here are my favorite winters

2015-2016

2010-2011

2002-2003

1995-1996

1993-1994

1982-1983

1981-1982

1977-1978

1976-1977

 

we had so many great winters lately it's hard to pick a favorite...my first memories of big snows came when I was in the 1st grade in March 56...three big snows when I was in the third grade in 1958...between the fifth and sixth grades NYC got four blizzards and a major hurricane from March 60 to Feb. 61...1963-64, 1966-67 and 1968-69 are on my list of favorites...

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Just now, uncle W said:

we had so many great winters lately it's hard to pick a favorite...my first memories of big snows came when I was in the 1st grade in March 56...three big snows when I was in the third grade in 1958...between the fifth and sixth grades NYC got four blizzards and a major hurricane from March 60 to Feb. 61...1963-64, 1966-67 and 1968-69 are on my list of favorites...

My first big snow memory was 1-20-78. The weather forecast was for rain heavy at times and I picked up a surprise 12-15".

My honorable mentions

14-15 for all the cold and ice on the local waterways in February

00-01 for the ending of the 3 year snow drought

86-87 for the surprise January snowstorm

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On 8/14/2017 at 1:37 PM, bluewave said:

2005-2006 still had the best snowstorm of the winter in February with the second heaviest NYC snow on record. We had a front and back winter that year with record warmth in January. 2000-2001 got off to a great start with the 3 year snow drought buster right before New Year's. But winter continued right into March with the big snowstorm that hit Long Island. Another older front-loaded winter example was 80-81. That was our last below zero reading in December followed by a very cold January and record warm February.

 

The euro seasonal reminded me of the 76 z500 progression to a certain extent. Big cold from Nov-Jan, then winter dies thereafter. I guess one could call 76 a front end winter since it was very Dec/Jan weighted in terms of cold. The AMO has been hampering cold December prospects as well as the unpropitious NAO signal, a multifactorial issue. 

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19 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

The euro seasonal reminded me of the 76 z500 progression to a certain extent. Big cold from Nov-Jan, then winter dies thereafter. I guess one could call 76 a front end winter since it was very Dec/Jan weighted in terms of cold. The AMO has been hampering cold December prospects as well as the unpropitious NAO signal, a multifactorial issue. 

Yeah, the Euro seasonal forecast for December would be a departure from recent years. The 2000's December pattern reversal after 2010 has been one of the more extreme weather/climate events of the 2000's so far.

 

A.png.bf212697974243449aba6b8fcac149a1.png

B.png.b5182b942c787ceb7e2ec053c2c9703d.png

 

 

 

 

 

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Don't worry.  CANSIPS has every month for the next 12 months above normal, except somehow it knows Feb. will be below normal!   It takes all kinds.   The CANSIPS prediction would give us about 36 AN months out of a total of 39 months, by next summer.

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10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

10/11 was on pace to smash 95/96 until the snow machine just stopped

You just knew we were never going to get that great pattern back again.  95-96 was great because we went back and forth, in 10-11 it was just consistently cold and stormy (with near-record snowpacks.)  When a pattern stays the same for a long time and then it flips, it usually doesn't come back.

 

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3 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

The euro seasonal reminded me of the 76 z500 progression to a certain extent. Big cold from Nov-Jan, then winter dies thereafter. I guess one could call 76 a front end winter since it was very Dec/Jan weighted in terms of cold. The AMO has been hampering cold December prospects as well as the unpropitious NAO signal, a multifactorial issue. 

On the other hand, even though it hasn't been a great pattern for cold, it's been a wonderful pattern for big snows.

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

10/11 was on pace to smash 95/96 until the snow machine just stopped

the nao went positive after January 28th, 2011...the ao also after both were mostly negative from the start...1960-61 had a negative ao until the end of January...1995-96 had a negative ao most of the winter...the nao was mostly negative the first half of 95-96 and spotty negative there after...

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2011 was the first time since 1978 that any of our major stations had over 50" in just 33 days. Newark was the only 60"+ in 33 days that I know of.

Greatest 33 day snow totals

EWR...61.5"...2011

NYC....56"......2011

ISP.....53"......1978

 

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there has been a marked increase of major snow storms with near 20" around the city...Long Island probably has more...2009, 2013 and 2015 in spots?

NYC area...

2016...Jan...27.5" in Central Park...

2011...Jan...?

2010...Dec...20.0" in Central Park...

2010...Feb...20.9" in Central Park...

2006...Feb...26.9" in Central Park...

2003...Feb...19.8" in Central Park...

1996...Jan...20.2" in Central Park...

1983...Feb...20" in JFK...

1978...Feb...Newark???

1969...Feb...22.0" in JFK...

1961...Feb...21" in Brooklyn...

1960...Dec...20" in Newark...

1948...Dec...19.3" in Battery Park...

1947...Dec...26" in Central Park...

 

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, uncle W said:

there has been a marked increase of major snow storms with near 20" around the city...Long Island probably has more...2009, 2013 and 2015 in spots?

NYC area...

2016...Jan...27.5" in Central Park...

2011...Jan...?

2010...Dec...20.0" in Central Park...

2010...Feb...20.9" in Central Park...

2006...Feb...26.9" in Central Park...

2003...Feb...19.8" in Central Park...

1996...Jan...20.2" in Central Park...

1983...Feb...20" in JFK...

1978...Feb...Newark???

1969...Feb...22.0" in JFK...

1961...Feb...21" in Brooklyn...

1960...Dec...20" in Newark...

1948...Dec...19.3" in Battery Park...

1947...Dec...26" in Central Park...

 

 

 

 

2011 on Jan 27 I had 20"

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12 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

2011 on Jan 27 I had 20"

thanks for the info...the Bronx must have gotten 20" also...I had 23" for the blizzard of 96 when I lived in Brooklyn...the most snow on the ground for Brooklyn since 1947 is 28" on 2/4/1961...Ave V and 86th Street had nearly 30" for the Dec. 1947 storm...

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On 8/14/2017 at 8:39 AM, BxEngine said:

14 years ago today the lights went out

21 hours without power here

15 hours ago, forkyfork said:

10/11 was on pace to smash 95/96 until the snow machine just stopped

NYC could have easily broken the record if the pattern didn't change

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3 minutes ago, uncle W said:

thanks for the info...the Bronx must have gotten 20" also...I had 23" for the blizzard of 96 when I lived in Brooklyn...the most snow on the ground for Brooklyn since 1947 is 28" on 2/4/1961...Ave V and 86th Street had nearly 30" for the Dec. 1947 storm...

Yeah I think the park got 19" so it wouldn't make the list

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2010-11 was a head of 1995-96 as late as Feb. 16th...

record seasonal snowfall most and least for each date...

10/10/1979/1925...trace...

10/13/1979/1925/1937...trace...

10/15/1876.....0.5"

10/20/1952/1876...0.5"

10/29/2011.....2.9"

11/07/2012.....4.3"

11/08/2012.....4.7"

11/25/1938.....8.8"

11/26/1938.....9.3"

11/27/1898...13.0"

11/30/1898...19.0"

12/12/1898...19.5"

12/14/2003...19.8"

12/20/1948...21.3"

12/25/1883...22.0"

12/26/1947...29.3"

12/31/1872...30.5"

01/07/1948...32.9"

01/13/1948...33.3"

01/14/1948...35.1"

01/18/1948...37.8"

01/21/1948...39.4"

01/26/2011...49.4"

01/27/2011...56.1"

02/01/2011...57.2"

02/16/1996...60.9"

02/17/1996...61.7"

03/02/1996...66.3"

03/08/1996...70.8"

03/28/1996...71.1"

03/29/1996...74.9"

04/09/1996...75.2"

04/10/1996...75.6"

04/30/1996...75.6"

........................................

least...

1/09/2007.....0

1/10/2016/2007/2000/1973/1966.. trace

1/17/2007/2000/1973/1966...trace

1/19/2000/73/66...trace

1/20/1973.....trace

1/28/1973.....trace

1/29/1994.....0.2"

2/04/1998.....0.5"

3/22/1919.....2.4"

3/28/1973.....2.8" to end...

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On 8/16/2017 at 9:47 AM, uncle W said:

thanks for the info...the Bronx must have gotten 20" also...I had 23" for the blizzard of 96 when I lived in Brooklyn...the most snow on the ground for Brooklyn since 1947 is 28" on 2/4/1961...Ave V and 86th Street had nearly 30" for the Dec. 1947 storm...

30" here for the January 2016 storm.

 

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