LibertyBell Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 2 hours ago, Juliancolton said: The Perseids are one of the more consistent meteor showers in terms of activity from one year to the next. To be the "biggest ever in history", it would need to produce a ZHR of around 200,000, seeing as observers have reported 50+ meteors *per second* in the bigger Leonids outbursts. With the moon as bright as it is, expect to see a couple dozen meteors per hour tonight. Biggest "ever" I don't know why he's saying that! Maybe one of the most consistent ones though (along with the Geminids which also average around 60/hr at peak.) I saw the Leonids in November 2001 and they were amazing you could see 100s per minute even without looking up! And that wasn't even one of the best ones. Thing is you have to wait 33 years between meteor storms like that. The bright moon will be up later, the best hour for meteors tonight will likely be between midnight and 1 am. Luckily I am in the Poconos right now and not Long Island lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Luckily, the -EPO has been there when the AO/NAO has had it's more + intervals since March 2013. But there is no substitute for a good -AO or -NAO. My favorite winter storms of the 2010's in 10-11 and Jan 16 were all -AO/-NAO driven. a good -AO/NAO can often be the difference between an annoying slop storm and an all out monster that stays all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 13, 2017 Author Share Posted August 13, 2017 Looks like a boring stretch incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Biggest "ever" I don't know why he's saying that! Maybe one of the most consistent ones though (along with the Geminids which also average around 60/hr at peak.) I saw the Leonids in November 2001 and they were amazing you could see 100s per minute even without looking up! And that wasn't even one of the best ones. Thing is you have to wait 33 years between meteor storms like that. The bright moon will be up later, the best hour for meteors tonight will likely be between midnight and 1 am. Luckily I am in the Poconos right now and not Long Island lol. I just saw a few through the fog and high clouds. One really bright one that actually seemed to be under the clouds haha. That's really good for a few minutes of viewing under one small patch of clear sky near Cassiopiea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 So did someone give the NDJ Euro seasonal steroids? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: So did someone give the NDJ Euro seasonal steroids? We were discussing that in the NE forum, if only. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 32 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: We were discussing that in the NE forum, if only. Fingers crossed. It has a very +PDO (NDJ) look to it with a deep Aleutian Low and downstream ridge over Western NOAM across the top to Western Greenland. Now whether it has a clue is another story that will have to wait until then. A very front-loaded winter look with a mild Feb after a colder start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: It has a very +PDO (NDJ) look to it with a deep Aleutian Low and downstream ridge over Western NOAM across the top to Western Greenland. Now whether it has a clue is another story that will have to wait until then. A very front-loaded winter look with a mild Feb after a colder start. A front loaded winter would be nice for once honestly. Lets get the cold air to start working in around Thanksgiving setting the stage for our first significant/major winter storm around the 2nd week of December with deep winter lasting thru the 1st week of February and I will be a happy camper. Winter can shutoff after that as long as it remains active storm wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 Yeah I'm sick of the back loaded crap with winter persisting well into spring. By mid-late January I'm already over winter, so a mild Feb-Mar would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, Cfa said: Yeah I'm sick of the back loaded crap with winter persisting well into spring. By mid-late January I'm already over winter, so a mild Feb-Mar would be great. I miss when Spring would begin to settle in by mid-March, and then by April we were really turning the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 13, 2017 Author Share Posted August 13, 2017 The last week of November to the first week of March is winter for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 I'll take a less than average snowfall winter as long as the biggest storm comes just before Christmas...the winter of 1961-62 was like that...most of my favorite winters had a good December with a white Christmas...additional heavy snow later on in the winter...1960-61, 1963-64, 1966-67, 1995-96...2009-10 was good but it warmed Christmas night with rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: A front loaded winter would be nice for once honestly. Lets get the cold air to start working in around Thanksgiving setting the stage for our first significant/major winter storm around the 2nd week of December with deep winter lasting thru the 1st week of February and I will be a happy camper. Winter can shutoff after that as long as it remains active storm wise. Front-loaded cold and snowy winters have been rare here during the 2010's. The only one we got was 2010-2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: The last week of November to the first week of March is winter for me That is an ideal winter in my opinion, but how often does that truly happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Front-loaded winters have been rare here during the 2010's. The only one we got was 2010-2011. Lets hope the Euro seasonal is onto something, this is the time of year where the winter talk and speculation starts ramping up especially as we head into September so I am sure there will be much to talk about over the next few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 4 hours ago, bluewave said: It has a very +PDO (NDJ) look to it with a deep Aleutian Low and downstream ridge over Western NOAM across the top to Western Greenland. Now whether it has a clue is another story that will have to wait until then. A very front-loaded winter look with a mild Feb after a colder start. 2010-2011 feel I had 60 inches of snow by Feb 1 that winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 I prefer mild until around mid December and then it can get cold and snowy until around March 10th. After that I'm ready for Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I prefer mild until around mid December and then it can get cold and snowy until around March 10th. After that I'm ready for Spring. Yeah I like when November is seasonable, with maybe some very small events mixed in. I don't mind the cold and snow December through February, but by March I'm definitely in Spring mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Hey I like winter and winter only. It has to snow. I'm going to Turks and Caicos from the 20th till the 27 and hoping to experience great weather but some models show a storm around the 24th, and honestly that scares me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 12 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Lets hope the Euro seasonal is onto something, this is the time of year where the winter talk and speculation starts ramping up especially as we head into September so I am sure there will be much to talk about over the next few months. All just pretty much eyecandy at this point since the Euro seasonal hasn't been any better than the other seasonal models in recent winters. Hopefully, it gets one of these winters right since the current forecast looks pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 31 minutes ago, bluewave said: All just pretty much eyecandy at this point since the Euro seasonal hasn't been any better than the other seasonal models in recent winters. Hopefully, it gets one of these winters right since the current forecast looks pretty. I agree, the Euro overall has been a disappointment lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I agree, the Euro overall has been a disappointment lately. It has done very well in the EPS 1-5 and 6-10 day ranges. There have also been some successes in the weeklies over the last few years. But the seasonal is a whole separate forecast system that goes out months instead of just weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 11 hours ago, Snow88 said: 2010-2011 feel I had 60 inches of snow by Feb 1 that winter That was a special kind of winter that we don't see very often. It was probably the best front-loaded winter of more recent times. But they are very rare. Before 10-11, 03-04 was close to the pattern with the early December heavy snow and the frigid January. For pre-2000's , we may have to go back to 89-90 for something resembling a front-loaded winter. That once started on Thanksgiving and was over by New Year's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 14 years ago today the lights went out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Just now, BxEngine said: 14 years ago today the lights went out Talking about the blackout not @Rjay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 3 hours ago, bluewave said: That was a special kind of winter that we don't see very often. It was probably the best front-loaded winter of more recent times. But they are very rare. Before 10-11, 03-04 was close to the pattern with the early December heavy snow and the frigid January. For pre-2000's , we may have to go back to 89-90 for something resembling a front-loaded winter. That once started on Thanksgiving and was over by New Year's. 2005 had a nice 2 week stretch the first half of December, 2002 was also one of the best Decembers in my memory with a SECS on the 5th and a snowy Christmas night. 2000 was a good front loaded winter with the MECs during the holiday week and cold January. IIRC, while not a great winter, 98-99 featured some snow around Christmas. Edit - yes, 2 to 4" event through NJ on the 23rd-24th of 1998. Not sure what NYC recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Been moving to new house last couple days...hated it with a passion. Still on SI just a few miles from old place. Weather station still at same spot its been for 45 years...at the house where I grew up, where my sister now lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Isotherm said: 2005 had a nice 2 week stretch the first half of December, 2002 was also one of the best Decembers in my memory with a SECS on the 5th and a snowy Christmas night. 2000 was a good front loaded winter with the MECs during the holiday week and cold January. IIRC, while not a great winter, 98-99 featured some snow around Christmas. Edit - yes, 2 to 4" event through NJ on the 23rd-24th of 1998. Not sure what NYC recorded. 2005-2006 still had the best snowstorm of the winter in February with the second heaviest NYC snow on record. We had a front and back winter that year with record warmth in January. 2000-2001 got off to a great start with the 3 year snow drought buster right before New Year's. But winter continued right into March with the big snowstorm that hit Long Island. Another older front-loaded winter example was 80-81. That was our last below zero reading in December followed by a very cold January and record warm February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 31 minutes ago, bluewave said: 2005-2006 still had the best snowstorm of the winter in February with the second heaviest NYC snow on record. We had a front and back winter that year with record warmth in January. 2000-2001 got off to a great start with the 3 year snow drought buster right before New Year's. But winter continued right into March with the big snowstorm that hit Long Island. Another older front-loaded winter example was 80-81. That was our last below zero reading in December followed by a very cold January and record warm February. 1980-81 had some light snows just before Christmas with arctic temperatures...A cold January with average snowfall...A mild snow less February...the biggest snowstorm came on March 5th and was 7-8" deep...1983-84 was similar but it had a snowier and colder March...the biggest snow was 7" in March...usually when December is snowy the rest of the winter is also...1980 and 1983 didn't have a snowy December and the seasonal totals were below average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 17 minutes ago, uncle W said: 1980-81 had some light snows just before Christmas with arctic temperatures...A cold January with average snowfall...A mild snow less February...the biggest snowstorm came on March 5th and was 7-8" deep...1983-84 was similar but it had a snowier and colder March...the biggest snow was 7" in March...usually when December is snowy the rest of the winter is also...1980 and 1983 didn't have a snowy December and the seasonal totals were below average... You have a great memory. I don't even remember that snow in March 1981. My only memory of that winter was the super cold front temperature drop to below 0 Christmas. My neighbors pipe burst and water was pouring down his driveway and turned into an ice skating rink. There was also a great display of Arctic Seasmoke since the ocean was still relatively mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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