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Summer 2017 Banter Thread

dmillz25

By dmillz25,
in New York City Metro

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Not the kind of weather you want for your Phoenix vacation unless you really like the heat.

  


Some interesting things to note:

The forecast models for Monday now have a median forecast
temperature of 120 degrees and a max forecast temperature of 123
degrees for Phoenix! On Tuesday, the forecast models have a median
forecast temperature of 119 degrees, and also a max forecast
temperature of 123 degrees for Phoenix. However, there`s still a
decent amount of spread and the Euro is still trending a tad bit
warmer than the GFS. Therefore, temperatures were nudged slightly
upward to account for the warming trend, but the temperature
forecast could go up even more in the near future if models
continue to trend higher.

Whats crazy about all of this is that the all time high
temperature at Phoenix Sky Harbor is 122 degrees set back in 1990
and there`s a chance we could be near this record and possibly
even break it if things continue to trend upward.

Another crazy thing, last year on June 19th we reached 118 in
Phoenix, and broke the previous record.

What are they looking at in Palm Springs, Thermal, and Needles?  I wish they had an official recording spot in Death Valley, but apparently they don't.  I wonder if this is a portent for a big time Sonoran heat release coming up for us later in the summer.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
On 6/7/2017 at 11:26 PM, dWave said:

I was going to post the same thing.

128, earth hottest May temp ever recorded.

That is one of the hottest temperatures ever recorded.  The 134 in Death Valley is highly suspect, there are no other temps within 5 degrees of it.

 

from the article:

the temperature was later rounded to 54.0°C (129.2°F.) If that is correct, it would tie the highest reliable temperature ever recorded in the planet, the 54.0°C reading set on July 21, 2016 in Mitribah, Kuwait. Regardless, the 53.5°C reading at Turbat on May 28, 2017, ranks as one of Earth’s top five hottest reliably-measured temperatures on record; see Wunderground weather historian Chris Burt’s July 22, 2016 post,Hottest Reliably Measured Air Temperatures on Earth, for more information. The World Meteorological Organization, which is currently checking the reliability of the Mitribah thermometer, will also carry out an investigation on the reliability of the Turbat reading--and to find out whether this rounding from 53.5°C to 54.0°C makes sense.

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
On 6/10/2017 at 9:26 PM, Juliancolton said:

That's actually going to be the better eclipse of the two with a much longer duration of totality, peaking at nearly 4.5 minutes instead of 2m40s. Niagara Falls sees 3m30s of totality in 2024... just think of the hotel prices!

I have a room booked in Santee, SC for this August but odds favor clouds in the east.

I think Nashville is a better bet for the August eclipse.  For the 2024 one, I'm taking a trip to Niagara Falls!

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dmillz25

dmillz25

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Posted
14 minutes ago, Paragon said:

It will? I thought we aren't due for a total solar eclipse until 2079 or so.  The one in April 2024 will be total in Buffalo and Rochester, so I'll be going there.

For the next few, the SE is going to get lucky, these things run in cycles and they look to be in the bullseye.
 

Yeah like 96 percent total here. Buffalo is couple hundred miles from here

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JerseyWx

JerseyWx

Posted
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48 minutes ago, Paragon said:

That is one of the hottest temperatures ever recorded.  The 134 in Death Valley is highly suspect, there are no other temps within 5 degrees of it.

 

from the article:

the temperature was later rounded to 54.0°C (129.2°F.) If that is correct, it would tie the highest reliable temperature ever recorded in the planet, the 54.0°C reading set on July 21, 2016 in Mitribah, Kuwait. Regardless, the 53.5°C reading at Turbat on May 28, 2017, ranks as one of Earth’s top five hottest reliably-measured temperatures on record; see Wunderground weather historian Chris Burt’s July 22, 2016 post,Hottest Reliably Measured Air Temperatures on Earth, for more information. The World Meteorological Organization, which is currently checking the reliability of the Mitribah thermometer, will also carry out an investigation on the reliability of the Turbat reading--and to find out whether this rounding from 53.5°C to 54.0°C makes sense.

 

This makes me wonder, what was the highest Heat Index ever recorded?

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
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Just now, JerseyWx said:

This makes me wonder, what was the highest Heat Index ever recorded?

Off the top of my head I think it's somewhere near the Persian Gulf- there are places in that region that get dew points up to 100 degrees!

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
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14 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Unfortunately no - still orders of magnitude too bright. You need the full occultation.

I thought so and even then it only lasts a few minutes at most.  I've heard you can see all sorts of crazy things during totality, like the reflection of the sun in the moving air (I read that this can only be seen with the eyes and cannot be captured with a camera- it's sort of like the effect you get when swimming in a pool during bright sunlight.)

 

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JerseyWx

JerseyWx

Posted
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15 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Off the top of my head I think it's somewhere near the Persian Gulf- there are places in that region that get dew points up to 100 degrees!

I think you're on the right track.  I found this on Wikipedia, not sure how legitimate it actually is though.

"Outdoors in open conditions, as the relative humidity increases, first haze and ultimately a thicker cloud cover develops, reducing the amount of direct sunlight reaching the surface. Thus, there is an inverse relationship between maximum potential temperature and maximum potential relative humidity. Because of this factor, it was once believed that the highest heat index reading actually attainable anywhere on Earth was approximately 71 °C (160 °F). However, in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia on July 8, 2003, the dew point was 35 °C (95 °F) while the temperature was 42 °C (108 °F), resulting in a heat index of 78 °C (172 °F)."

Saw this as well:  https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/07/30/iran-city-hits-suffocating-heat-index-of-154-degrees-near-world-record/

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
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2 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

I think you're on the right track.  I found this on Wikipedia, not sure how legitimate it actually is though.

"Outdoors in open conditions, as the relative humidity increases, first haze and ultimately a thicker cloud cover develops, reducing the amount of direct sunlight reaching the surface. Thus, there is an inverse relationship between maximum potential temperature and maximum potential relative humidity. Because of this factor, it was once believed that the highest heat index reading actually attainable anywhere on Earth was approximately 71 °C (160 °F). However, in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia on July 8, 2003, the dew point was 35 °C (95 °F) while the temperature was 42 °C (108 °F), resulting in a heat index of 78 °C (172 °F)."

Saw this as well:  https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/07/30/iran-city-hits-suffocating-heat-index-of-154-degrees-near-world-record/

Wow that's bad!  Also look up heat bursts- I find those very intriguing.  There was one in Texas where a temp of 189 was recorded (and others in similar areas).  You'd think that the temp reading was wrong, but the wood on trees and on doors spontaneously burned!

 

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Paragon

Paragon

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https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/hottest-reliably-measured-air-temperatures-on-earth.html

He rates the reliability of the different readings

140° (60.0°C) June 15, 1960 Kopperl, Texas, USA (heat burst)

SOURCE: Tornadoes, Dark Days, Anomalous Precipitation and Related Weather Phenomena, William Corliss, Catalog of Geophysical Anomalies, 1983. See Extreme Weather; A Guide and Record Book, by Christopher C. Burt, andFreaks of the Storm, by Randy Cerveny, for more information on this event.

NOTES: A thermometer outside Kopperl's Bait and Tackle Shop reportedly measured this temperature around midnight following the collapse of nearby thunderstorms. The reliability of the thermometer in question is not known however very few common thermometers are capable of registering a temperature of 140°F. Physical evidence (burnt crops) indicates an amazing heat burst occurred here, but the only thermometer to register it is in question.

136° (57.8°C) July 11, 1909 Cherokee, Oklahoma, USA

SOURCE: Monthly Weather Review, USWB, July 1909 p. 337

NOTES: No information is known about the thermometer used for this reading and the temperature is therefore dismissed in the Monthly Weather Review mention of the event. Physical evidence (burnt crops) indicates something amazing happened here that night, but the thermometer validity is a big question mark

133° (56.1°C) June 17, 1859 Santa Barbara, California, USA

SOURCE: The Coast Pilot of California, 1859

NOTES: There is no record of who made this measurement or exactly where it was made in Santa Barbara. Some later sources say it was made on a U.S. coastal geo-survey vessel. IF that is the case then the temperature is not possible since the waters off Santa Barbara in June are never warmer than about 70°F and any wind blowing over the ocean would have its temperature modified by the cool water no matter how hot the air. This report is singular and there is physical evidence (burnt crops and dead animals) that something amazing happened here this day, but the temperature record is impossible to validate.

 

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JerseyWx

JerseyWx

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Wow that's bad!  Also look up heat bursts- I find those very intriguing.  There was one in Texas where a temp of 189 was recorded (and others in similar areas).  You'd think that the temp reading was wrong, but the wood on trees and on doors spontaneously burned!

 

Wow, never heard of those.  I can't imagine what a heat index of 160+ actually feels like to the skin.  Has to be nearly impossible to breathe.

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
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1 minute ago, JerseyWx said:

Wow, never heard of those.  I can't imagine what a heat index of 160+ actually feels like to the skin.  Has to be nearly impossible to breathe.

I was reading some of the accounts, and although it's hard to verify the readings, the fact that there were dead animals and burnt crops in the area, makes this almost X-files kind of stuff.

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JerseyWx

JerseyWx

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13 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I was reading some of the accounts, and although it's hard to verify the readings, the fact that there were dead animals and burnt crops in the area, makes this almost X-files kind of stuff.

 I agree, very strange stuff. Another interesting thing is the weather that Montana experiences.  I mean, it's just incredible how many records they hold.  One of the many reasons it is my favorite state.

Here's a few from the Great Falls NWS site:

January 11, 1980. The temperature in Great Falls rose from -32°F to 15°F in seven minutes as warm, Chinook winds eroded an Arctic airmass. This 47 degree rise in seven minutes stands as the record for the most rapid temperature change registered in the United States.

December 14, 1924. The temperature at Fairfield, Montana (about 20 miles WNW of Great Falls), dropped from 63°F at noon to -21°F at midnight. This 84 degree change in 12 hours still stands as the greatest 12 hour temperature change recorded in the United States.

January 20, 1954. The temperature at Roger's Pass, Montana, (about 25 miles NW of Helena) dropped to -70°F (not a wind chill). This still stands as the coldest temperature ever recorded in the lower 48 United States.

January 24, 1916. An Arctic cold front slammed through Browning, Montana, dropping the temperature from 44°F to -56°F in 24 hours. This 100 degree change stands as the most dramatic 24-hour drop in temperature ever recorded in the United States.

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Paragon

Paragon

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Just now, JerseyWx said:

 I agree, very strange stuff. Another interesting thing is the weather that Montana experiences.  I mean, it's just incredible how many records they hold.  One of the many reasons it is my favorite state.

Here a few from the Great Falls NWS site:

January 11, 1980. The temperature in Great Falls rose from -32°F to 15°F in seven minutes as warm, Chinook winds eroded an Arctic airmass. This 47 degree rise in seven minutes stands as the record for the most rapid temperature change registered in the United States.

December 14, 1924. The temperature at Fairfield, Montana (about 20 miles WNW of Great Falls), dropped from 63°F at noon to -21°F at midnight. This 84 degree change in 12 hours still stands as the greatest 12 hour temperature change recorded in the United States.

January 20, 1954. The temperature at Roger's Pass, Montana, (about 25 miles NW of Helena) dropped to -70°F (not a wind chill). This still stands as the coldest temperature ever recorded in the lower 48 United States.

January 24, 1916. An Arctic cold front slammed through Browning, Montana, dropping the temperature from 44°F to -56°F in 24 hours. This 100 degree change stands as the most dramatic 24-hour drop in temperature ever recorded in the United States.

Wow that reminds me of Rapid City, SD and the surrounding area (Spear Lake), they also have sudden temp rises and falls in a small amount of time.

 

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

Hi guys, not sure how many people here who code or are developers, but I wrote a wrapper for parts of the NOAA climate API (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/webservices/v2) for the Julia language (https://julialang.org/), which you can find here: https://github.com/pazzo83/NOAAData.jl

Basically it supports the GHCND daily data set and the GSOM monthly data set.  You have to provide the station's GHCND id (Central Park's is: GHCND:USW00094728, you can find others searching here: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/search)

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WeatherFeen2000

WeatherFeen2000

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Eh I think it'll be normal to slightly above normal

Not according to the GFS 12z

 

think about it by June 21st days start getting shorter this is probably supposed to be the hottest time of the year from June 15th up until July 20th.  GFS 12z doesn't have any upper 80's for the next two weeks. I'm happy with that!

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dmillz25

dmillz25

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5 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Not according to the GFS 12z

 

think about it by June 21st days start getting shorter this is probably supposed to be the hottest time of the year from June 15th up until July 20th.  GFS 12z doesn't have any upper 80's for the next two weeks. I'm happy with that!

The GFS is a trash model especially after day 5

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