Paragon Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Not the kind of weather you want for your Phoenix vacation unless you really like the heat. Some interesting things to note: The forecast models for Monday now have a median forecast temperature of 120 degrees and a max forecast temperature of 123 degrees for Phoenix! On Tuesday, the forecast models have a median forecast temperature of 119 degrees, and also a max forecast temperature of 123 degrees for Phoenix. However, there`s still a decent amount of spread and the Euro is still trending a tad bit warmer than the GFS. Therefore, temperatures were nudged slightly upward to account for the warming trend, but the temperature forecast could go up even more in the near future if models continue to trend higher. Whats crazy about all of this is that the all time high temperature at Phoenix Sky Harbor is 122 degrees set back in 1990 and there`s a chance we could be near this record and possibly even break it if things continue to trend upward. Another crazy thing, last year on June 19th we reached 118 in Phoenix, and broke the previous record. What are they looking at in Palm Springs, Thermal, and Needles? I wish they had an official recording spot in Death Valley, but apparently they don't. I wonder if this is a portent for a big time Sonoran heat release coming up for us later in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 On 6/7/2017 at 11:26 PM, dWave said: I was going to post the same thing. 128, earth hottest May temp ever recorded. That is one of the hottest temperatures ever recorded. The 134 in Death Valley is highly suspect, there are no other temps within 5 degrees of it. from the article: the temperature was later rounded to 54.0°C (129.2°F.) If that is correct, it would tie the highest reliable temperature ever recorded in the planet, the 54.0°C reading set on July 21, 2016 in Mitribah, Kuwait. Regardless, the 53.5°C reading at Turbat on May 28, 2017, ranks as one of Earth’s top five hottest reliably-measured temperatures on record; see Wunderground weather historian Chris Burt’s July 22, 2016 post,Hottest Reliably Measured Air Temperatures on Earth, for more information. The World Meteorological Organization, which is currently checking the reliability of the Mitribah thermometer, will also carry out an investigation on the reliability of the Turbat reading--and to find out whether this rounding from 53.5°C to 54.0°C makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 On 6/10/2017 at 9:26 PM, Juliancolton said: That's actually going to be the better eclipse of the two with a much longer duration of totality, peaking at nearly 4.5 minutes instead of 2m40s. Niagara Falls sees 3m30s of totality in 2024... just think of the hotel prices! I have a room booked in Santee, SC for this August but odds favor clouds in the east. I think Nashville is a better bet for the August eclipse. For the 2024 one, I'm taking a trip to Niagara Falls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 14, 2017 Author Share Posted June 14, 2017 14 minutes ago, Paragon said: It will? I thought we aren't due for a total solar eclipse until 2079 or so. The one in April 2024 will be total in Buffalo and Rochester, so I'll be going there. For the next few, the SE is going to get lucky, these things run in cycles and they look to be in the bullseye. Yeah like 96 percent total here. Buffalo is couple hundred miles from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 14, 2017 Share Posted June 14, 2017 Just now, dmillz25 said: Yeah like 96 percent total here. Buffalo is couple hundred miles from here Wow not bad. I bought eclipse glasses lol. I wonder if 96 percent is enough to see the corona? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 38 minutes ago, Paragon said: Wow not bad. I bought eclipse glasses lol. I wonder if 96 percent is enough to see the corona? Unfortunately no - still orders of magnitude too bright. You need the full occultation. I don't even think shadow bands become a thing until around 99% eclipse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 48 minutes ago, Paragon said: That is one of the hottest temperatures ever recorded. The 134 in Death Valley is highly suspect, there are no other temps within 5 degrees of it. from the article: the temperature was later rounded to 54.0°C (129.2°F.) If that is correct, it would tie the highest reliable temperature ever recorded in the planet, the 54.0°C reading set on July 21, 2016 in Mitribah, Kuwait. Regardless, the 53.5°C reading at Turbat on May 28, 2017, ranks as one of Earth’s top five hottest reliably-measured temperatures on record; see Wunderground weather historian Chris Burt’s July 22, 2016 post,Hottest Reliably Measured Air Temperatures on Earth, for more information. The World Meteorological Organization, which is currently checking the reliability of the Mitribah thermometer, will also carry out an investigation on the reliability of the Turbat reading--and to find out whether this rounding from 53.5°C to 54.0°C makes sense. This makes me wonder, what was the highest Heat Index ever recorded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 Just now, JerseyWx said: This makes me wonder, what was the highest Heat Index ever recorded? Off the top of my head I think it's somewhere near the Persian Gulf- there are places in that region that get dew points up to 100 degrees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 14 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Unfortunately no - still orders of magnitude too bright. You need the full occultation. I thought so and even then it only lasts a few minutes at most. I've heard you can see all sorts of crazy things during totality, like the reflection of the sun in the moving air (I read that this can only be seen with the eyes and cannot be captured with a camera- it's sort of like the effect you get when swimming in a pool during bright sunlight.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 15 minutes ago, Paragon said: Off the top of my head I think it's somewhere near the Persian Gulf- there are places in that region that get dew points up to 100 degrees! I think you're on the right track. I found this on Wikipedia, not sure how legitimate it actually is though. "Outdoors in open conditions, as the relative humidity increases, first haze and ultimately a thicker cloud cover develops, reducing the amount of direct sunlight reaching the surface. Thus, there is an inverse relationship between maximum potential temperature and maximum potential relative humidity. Because of this factor, it was once believed that the highest heat index reading actually attainable anywhere on Earth was approximately 71 °C (160 °F). However, in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia on July 8, 2003, the dew point was 35 °C (95 °F) while the temperature was 42 °C (108 °F), resulting in a heat index of 78 °C (172 °F)." Saw this as well: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/07/30/iran-city-hits-suffocating-heat-index-of-154-degrees-near-world-record/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: I think you're on the right track. I found this on Wikipedia, not sure how legitimate it actually is though. "Outdoors in open conditions, as the relative humidity increases, first haze and ultimately a thicker cloud cover develops, reducing the amount of direct sunlight reaching the surface. Thus, there is an inverse relationship between maximum potential temperature and maximum potential relative humidity. Because of this factor, it was once believed that the highest heat index reading actually attainable anywhere on Earth was approximately 71 °C (160 °F). However, in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia on July 8, 2003, the dew point was 35 °C (95 °F) while the temperature was 42 °C (108 °F), resulting in a heat index of 78 °C (172 °F)." Saw this as well: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/07/30/iran-city-hits-suffocating-heat-index-of-154-degrees-near-world-record/ Wow that's bad! Also look up heat bursts- I find those very intriguing. There was one in Texas where a temp of 189 was recorded (and others in similar areas). You'd think that the temp reading was wrong, but the wood on trees and on doors spontaneously burned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/hottest-reliably-measured-air-temperatures-on-earth.html He rates the reliability of the different readings 140° (60.0°C) June 15, 1960 Kopperl, Texas, USA (heat burst)SOURCE: Tornadoes, Dark Days, Anomalous Precipitation and Related Weather Phenomena, William Corliss, Catalog of Geophysical Anomalies, 1983. See Extreme Weather; A Guide and Record Book, by Christopher C. Burt, andFreaks of the Storm, by Randy Cerveny, for more information on this event.NOTES: A thermometer outside Kopperl's Bait and Tackle Shop reportedly measured this temperature around midnight following the collapse of nearby thunderstorms. The reliability of the thermometer in question is not known however very few common thermometers are capable of registering a temperature of 140°F. Physical evidence (burnt crops) indicates an amazing heat burst occurred here, but the only thermometer to register it is in question. 136° (57.8°C) July 11, 1909 Cherokee, Oklahoma, USASOURCE: Monthly Weather Review, USWB, July 1909 p. 337NOTES: No information is known about the thermometer used for this reading and the temperature is therefore dismissed in the Monthly Weather Review mention of the event. Physical evidence (burnt crops) indicates something amazing happened here that night, but the thermometer validity is a big question mark 133° (56.1°C) June 17, 1859 Santa Barbara, California, USASOURCE: The Coast Pilot of California, 1859NOTES: There is no record of who made this measurement or exactly where it was made in Santa Barbara. Some later sources say it was made on a U.S. coastal geo-survey vessel. IF that is the case then the temperature is not possible since the waters off Santa Barbara in June are never warmer than about 70°F and any wind blowing over the ocean would have its temperature modified by the cool water no matter how hot the air. This report is singular and there is physical evidence (burnt crops and dead animals) that something amazing happened here this day, but the temperature record is impossible to validate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 12 minutes ago, Paragon said: Wow that's bad! Also look up heat bursts- I find those very intriguing. There was one in Texas where a temp of 189 was recorded (and others in similar areas). You'd think that the temp reading was wrong, but the wood on trees and on doors spontaneously burned! Wow, never heard of those. I can't imagine what a heat index of 160+ actually feels like to the skin. Has to be nearly impossible to breathe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 1 minute ago, JerseyWx said: Wow, never heard of those. I can't imagine what a heat index of 160+ actually feels like to the skin. Has to be nearly impossible to breathe. I was reading some of the accounts, and although it's hard to verify the readings, the fact that there were dead animals and burnt crops in the area, makes this almost X-files kind of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 13 minutes ago, Paragon said: I was reading some of the accounts, and although it's hard to verify the readings, the fact that there were dead animals and burnt crops in the area, makes this almost X-files kind of stuff. I agree, very strange stuff. Another interesting thing is the weather that Montana experiences. I mean, it's just incredible how many records they hold. One of the many reasons it is my favorite state. Here's a few from the Great Falls NWS site: January 11, 1980. The temperature in Great Falls rose from -32°F to 15°F in seven minutes as warm, Chinook winds eroded an Arctic airmass. This 47 degree rise in seven minutes stands as the record for the most rapid temperature change registered in the United States. December 14, 1924. The temperature at Fairfield, Montana (about 20 miles WNW of Great Falls), dropped from 63°F at noon to -21°F at midnight. This 84 degree change in 12 hours still stands as the greatest 12 hour temperature change recorded in the United States. January 20, 1954. The temperature at Roger's Pass, Montana, (about 25 miles NW of Helena) dropped to -70°F (not a wind chill). This still stands as the coldest temperature ever recorded in the lower 48 United States. January 24, 1916. An Arctic cold front slammed through Browning, Montana, dropping the temperature from 44°F to -56°F in 24 hours. This 100 degree change stands as the most dramatic 24-hour drop in temperature ever recorded in the United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 Just now, JerseyWx said: I agree, very strange stuff. Another interesting thing is the weather that Montana experiences. I mean, it's just incredible how many records they hold. One of the many reasons it is my favorite state. Here a few from the Great Falls NWS site: January 11, 1980. The temperature in Great Falls rose from -32°F to 15°F in seven minutes as warm, Chinook winds eroded an Arctic airmass. This 47 degree rise in seven minutes stands as the record for the most rapid temperature change registered in the United States. December 14, 1924. The temperature at Fairfield, Montana (about 20 miles WNW of Great Falls), dropped from 63°F at noon to -21°F at midnight. This 84 degree change in 12 hours still stands as the greatest 12 hour temperature change recorded in the United States. January 20, 1954. The temperature at Roger's Pass, Montana, (about 25 miles NW of Helena) dropped to -70°F (not a wind chill). This still stands as the coldest temperature ever recorded in the lower 48 United States. January 24, 1916. An Arctic cold front slammed through Browning, Montana, dropping the temperature from 44°F to -56°F in 24 hours. This 100 degree change stands as the most dramatic 24-hour drop in temperature ever recorded in the United States. Wow that reminds me of Rapid City, SD and the surrounding area (Spear Lake), they also have sudden temp rises and falls in a small amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 I didnt realize heat bursts can occur during winter too, or so I read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 7 minutes ago, Paragon said: Wow that reminds me of Rapid City, SD and the surrounding area (Spear Lake), they also have sudden temp rises and falls in a small amount of time. Yeah, those Chinook winds are incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 Hi guys, not sure how many people here who code or are developers, but I wrote a wrapper for parts of the NOAA climate API (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/webservices/v2) for the Julia language (https://julialang.org/), which you can find here: https://github.com/pazzo83/NOAAData.jl Basically it supports the GHCND daily data set and the GSOM monthly data set. You have to provide the station's GHCND id (Central Park's is: GHCND:USW00094728, you can find others searching here: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/search) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 Hi guys. Can someone translate that sh*t into non nerd language for me? Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 My summer outlook for 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 Just now, BxEngine said: Hi guys. Can someone translate that sh*t into non nerd language for me? Thx. It's a way to get climate data from NOAA, more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Hi guys. Can someone translate that sh*t into non nerd language for me? Thx. I was a rapper in high school, with DJ EZ Rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 it's been dry for the past two weeks so naturally we're going to make it up with one of our "month's worth of rain in 3 days" episodes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: it's been dry for the past two weeks so naturally we're going to make it up with one of our "month's worth of rain in 3 days" episodes is that from AGW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 joke hole's gonna joke hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted June 15, 2017 Share Posted June 15, 2017 https://watchers.news/2017/06/15/sheveluch-eruption-june-14-2017/ Another reason why this summer could be cooler than normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 15, 2017 Author Share Posted June 15, 2017 1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: https://watchers.news/2017/06/15/sheveluch-eruption-june-14-2017/ Another reason why this summer could be cooler than normal Eh I think it'll be normal to slightly above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted June 16, 2017 Share Posted June 16, 2017 19 hours ago, dmillz25 said: Eh I think it'll be normal to slightly above normal Not according to the GFS 12z think about it by June 21st days start getting shorter this is probably supposed to be the hottest time of the year from June 15th up until July 20th. GFS 12z doesn't have any upper 80's for the next two weeks. I'm happy with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 16, 2017 Author Share Posted June 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Not according to the GFS 12z think about it by June 21st days start getting shorter this is probably supposed to be the hottest time of the year from June 15th up until July 20th. GFS 12z doesn't have any upper 80's for the next two weeks. I'm happy with that! The GFS is a trash model especially after day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.