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Summer 2017 Banter Thread


dmillz25

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20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I remember multiple damaging wind events caused by thunderstorms growing up in the 80/90s. The best being an early august storm in the early 90s. The cover of news day had 5 o'clock shadow.... anyone have any info on that storm? There was widespread wind damage on the island. (Way before the 98 derecho)

Yea same here...growing up there were bad storms all the time, and many late at night. Now its rare to non-existent. 

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5 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

The trend on the last four runs of the GEFS show a major shift towards a late re-curve around August 15th and is supported by the OP.

Now that the power is restored I'm sure glad I'm going to OBX next week and not that week. Of course so much will change between now and the 15th

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14 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Now that the power is restored I'm sure glad I'm going to OBX next week and not that week. Of course so much will change between now and the 15th

Leaving for St. Augustine on the 15th and then up to SC for the eclipse... I'm sure this will find a way to throw a wrench in my plans somehow.

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34 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Leaving for St. Augustine on the 15th and then up to SC for the eclipse... I'm sure this will find a way to throw a wrench in my plans somehow.

For your sake I hope not. Of course OBX had a stellar week last week weather wise while the two islands were evacuated, looks like chances of showers while I'm there next week. No complaints from me though, I'll be there and I've been in the pool during showers before. I've also been able to see some great cloud structures down there and a number of water spouts, one which was within a mile of the house that year. 

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Just now, Rjay said:

Haha.  Both of them.

i think the issue that caused the euro to go overboard with today's storm caused it to be wrong before the blizzard. it kept blowing up convection offshore into its own little system which made the blizzard disjointed 

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Just now, forkyfork said:

i think the issue that caused the euro to go overboard with today's storm caused it to be wrong before the blizzard. it kept blowing up convection offshore into its own little system which made the blizzard disjointed 

It lost Boxing Day and it wasn't very helpful (besides a few runs) with the 1/26-27/11 storm.  Also Jan 2015 (Juno) was a disaster.

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6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i think the issue that caused the euro to go overboard with today's storm caused it to be wrong before the blizzard. it kept blowing up convection offshore into its own little system which made the blizzard disjointed 

To be honest, every global model was having that issue with Jan 2016.  They were all blowing up the convection offshore and then pulling the low east towards it.  

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3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

To be honest, every global model was having that issue with Jan 2016.  They were all blowing up the convection offshore and then pulling the low east towards it.  

oceanstwx made a good point earlier today

3 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Nothing new really, NH summer is always the worst. But I think the more and more you drill down the resolution to the convective scale the more likely you are going to see convection play a larger role in the solution. Not always for the best.

 

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21 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i think the issue that caused the euro to go overboard with today's storm caused it to be wrong before the blizzard. it kept blowing up convection offshore into its own little system which made the blizzard disjointed 

The good news is that 60-120 mile short term errors  in storm tracks don't impact the 1-5 and 6-10 day 500 mb means much where the EPS really excels.

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The good news is that 60-120 mile shifts in storm tracks don't impact the 1-5 and 6-10 days means much where the EPS really excels.

The EPS is great recognizing hemispheric patterns before other ensembles.  My only issue with it is that the mean seems to follow the OP around like a lost puppy with specific storm threats in the medium range since its upgrades over the last few years.  

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