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Summer 2017 Banter Thread


dmillz25

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1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

THE important thing is we're getting that trough again and the heat will get squashed for most of the time. This weather is perfect

Looks like an average to perhaps +1 type of month with the big ++NAO working towards that this month.   Trough and chances for storms most of the month IMO

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

Looks like an average to perhaps +1 type of month with the big ++NAO working towards that this month.   Trough and chances for storms most of the month IMO

Significant NAO shift ongoing right now from +2 to below -1, I wonder what role that, if any, it'll have moving forward. 

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4 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I miss the days when it was open water between the seats and the stage at Jones Beach. They didn't cover it until the late 80's or early 90's, I don't remember exactly when because I didn't live here for a while but I was quite surprised when I came back and went to a show there and it was done. The first show I ever saw there was the Beach Boys and we paddled in on surfboards and hung out in the water right in front of the stage. Good times :) 

Hey LBSF what's the water temp at Jones Beach now?

 

It was very warm, mid 70s but has dropped to the upper 60s with upwelling yesterday due to northerly winds 

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0Z GFS still has heatwave ongoing for the first 11 days of August.  Thus:

1.  85,   2.  89,  3.  91,  4.  92,  5.  91,  6.  90,  7.   91,   8.  94,  9.  96,  10.  98,  11.  91       ............Now Get Me Out of Here!

NAEFS is loaded with uncertainty, but generally warms things up some.  Non-supportive of heatwave, I'd say.

2017072700_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

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On 7/23/2017 at 8:42 AM, Sundog said:

If the temperature is confirmed wouldn't that make it the warmest temperature recorded on Earth? I'm not sure why we haven't heard more about this. 

It's the first confirmed hyper heat burst (temp over 130F)- although these have occurred in the 1960s and prior, they weren't confirmed and if you look at the temp record it actually exceeded 130 multiple times including reaching 136.4 twice.  That's amazing!  The station is near the border of 3 states- CA, NV and AZ, and two other stations in the same region are Needles, CA (KEED) and Lake Havasu City, AZ (KHII), these are historically some of the hottest locations in the country (and the world).  Needles is one of the few places that has lows above 100 F and even had rain at a temp above 100!  It turned to steam soon after hitting the ground.

 

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On 7/23/2017 at 2:27 PM, Cfa said:

I checked and none of them recorded anything even close to 136°F. The closest station had a high of 116.8°F, it's about a mile or so from the airport.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KAZBULLH6#history/s20170715/e20170715/mdaily

I guess it's possible that it was extremely localized. It'd be cool to have a heat burst verify over an actual ASOS station.

Yeah the anatomy of heat bursts are that they are very localized (see the other ones listed.)  What's amazing about this one is that it occurred over several hours with multiple temp peaks- not sure if the other ones were like that.

By the way, they can happen here too!  They've occurred in coastal cities like Santa Barbara, CA so they can happen here.  I wonder if one has in the past?

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14 hours ago, dWave said:

They're going to have 90+ highs every day in July? I think the most we've had is 20 90+ highs (it happened in 1993 and 1999).

 

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We could lose our "troughy" protection against any heatwave by 8/7 and beyond.  But 500mb ensemble is a shambles in our neck of woods after just 60hrs. (NAEFS), so better to wait till Sat. low passes to see evolution.  However pattern did flatten out late---240hrs.

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5 hours ago, Paragon said:

It's the first confirmed hyper heat burst (temp over 130F)- although these have occurred in the 1960s and prior, they weren't confirmed and if you look at the temp record it actually exceeded 130 multiple times including reaching 136.4 twice.  That's amazing!  The station is near the border of 3 states- CA, NV and AZ, and two other stations in the same region are Needles, CA (KEED) and Lake Havasu City, AZ (KHII), these are historically some of the hottest locations in the country (and the world).  Needles is one of the few places that has lows above 100 F and even had rain at a temp above 100!  It turned to steam soon after hitting the ground.

 

Poor Spike :( 

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Again late Aug. before a serious threat of tropical action anywhere showing up.

GOM near the 25th.  EC near the 28th., with separate systems.  Minor lows near EC on the 10th. & 15th.

But as today's bust reveals, even the shortrange can be junk forecasting.

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4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

honestly that storm was lame. gusts were underwhelming and we didn't get any 3"+ per hour rates

But we had hours and hours of 1-2" per hour rates. Hopefully we get a Boxing Day/ Jan 2016 combined. Boxing Day for its winds, tssn, and rates and jan 2016 for its duration 

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5 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

But we had hours and hours of 1-2" per hour rates. Hopefully we get a Boxing Day/ Jan 2016 combined. Boxing Day for its winds, tssn, and rates and jan 2016 for its duration 

Yep.

And areas in eastern PA and parts of NNJ (nw of Forkyville) accumulated 3"+ an hour for a few hours.  

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For people that live in Essex and Union Counties in NJ, nothing will compare to Boxing Day.  For people on the north shore of Suffolk, nothing will compare to "Nemo".  For NYC and Nassau this was likely the biggest snowstorm storm of their lives.  Had more snow in my area than in 1996 and any other storm I can think of off the top of my head.  How many times has Nassau Co received 22-28"? Maybe 1983 or 1978 was close? Bluewave or Uncle could probable answer that.  I remember Boxing day had a small area of 20-24" over Central and eastern Nassau and the winds were incredible. 

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