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Summer 2017 Banter Thread


dmillz25

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CFS shows little heat around here from July 24 to August 18 or so.    Heatwave for third week of August is indicated, then closes out the month below normal again.    Next 45 days actually shown as averaging BN.    Meanwhile we are finishing out our 26th. month AN, out of the last 28

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On 7/13/2017 at 11:31 PM, forkyfork said:

theta e

Thanks Forky!  By the way did you have a chance to look at the data for KIFP (Bullhead City, Arizona) for the night between July 15-16?  There was a huge heatburst there and they hit 136 degrees!  Was this confirmed?

Here is the data on wunderground.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KIFP/2017/07/15/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Bullhead City&req_state=AZ&reqdb.zip=86439&reqdb.magic=4&reqdb.wmo=99999

Temperature  
Mean Temperature 114 °F -  
Max Temperature 136 °F 106 °F 136 °F (2017)
Min Temperature 91 °F 85 °F 72 °F (1993)

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KIFP/2017/07/16/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Bullhead City&req_state=AZ&reqdb.zip=86439&reqdb.magic=4&reqdb.wmo=99999

Temperature  
Mean Temperature 112 °F -  
Max Temperature 131 °F 106 °F 131 °F (2017)
Min Temperature 93 °F 85 °F 74 °F (1993)

From the data it looks like the heat burst started at 7:55 PM and from there until  1:15 AM it was over 130 degrees!  What a massive and long lasting heat burst!  By looking at past heat bursts that have occurred in different regions, they always seem to occur late at night- any idea why that might be?

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5 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Heatwaves this summer are like snow events last winter, once a month

It's the first heatwave of the season for the south shore of Nassau County (our previous bouts of heat have only lasted two days, this is the first one that's been a true heatwave.)  We hit 91 Wednesday, 95 yesterday and just hit 90 today.

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4 hours ago, CIK62 said:

CFS shows little heat around here from July 24 to August 18 or so.    Heatwave for third week of August is indicated, then closes out the month below normal again.    Next 45 days actually shown as averaging BN.    Meanwhile we are finishing out our 26th. month AN, out of the last 28

That would follow the pattern we've had for a few months about having a hot third week of the month.

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On 7/18/2017 at 2:34 PM, forkyfork said:

i would have to do some work to quantify this but i feel like 70+ dewpoints are much easier to come by these days than when i was a kid

It actually makes sense considering we are also much wetter than we used to be.  We used to average around 40-42 inches of rain a year when I was a kid, and now it's like 50 inches plus lol.  It makes me wonder if it will actually become easier to hit 100; with humidity so high the sun will have to work harder to hit those historic high temps, but the night time lows will certainly be warmer and that will more than make up the difference in the monthly averages.

We could end up with a subtropical rain forest climate with lots of low 90s and dew points of 70-75 being the norm with lows in the upper 70s.

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On 7/18/2017 at 3:05 PM, dWave said:

They are all here

http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/summers-getting-muggier-as-dewpoint-temp-rises

A product of warmer ocean temps I assume. Also, maybe that's a factor in warmer overnight lows, which seem to be pushing positive departures more than the daytime highs.

Consistently very warm as opposed to short bursts of extreme heat.

 

I like short bursts of extreme heat with low humidity, which hasn't happened this summer.

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On 7/18/2017 at 1:03 PM, SnoSki14 said:

That's surprising well above what I would've expected given that highs are likely to stay below 95 and it's the hottest time of year.

Seems we had lower departures in the past with much greater max temps.

So far it's hit 95 here three times (barely) but not gone over here.  It hit 95 once in June and twice so far in July.

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2 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

I'm going to Robert Moses state park tomorrow for my birthday and I was going to go get some seafood in Freeport, Long Island afterward...Any suggestions of hot spots there I'm taking my wife there after the beach.

The whole nautical mile is great. There are a ton of restaurants. Just drive down south towards the bay and find one you like 

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44 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Interesting to see that the Long Island Mesonet sites are the only sites with soil temps in the 80's even down to 20". Virtually every other site in the state are about 70-ish.

Probably b/c of the relatively cool nights north of NYC and upstate. Also the soil type on LI. I wish NYC mesonets had soi ml temp somewhere. NY botanical garden's wunderground does, its was 77 this morning.  NYC soil temp outside of the large parks might be really high with the warmer nights.  Like in a typically small backyard surrounding by rows of bldgs.

 

I used to check NYBG soil temp for potential of snow sticking in marginal events. 

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Something I was thinking about: what makes for isolated severe cells in a mT airmass?

I understand synoptic scale events fairly basically.

What I don't get is when some drifting cell going nowhere fast is dumping 2 inches an hour with nothing around it.  We've seen this a lot recently.  Just a blanket of warm, moist air with little forcing, where some storm pops up and goes SVR.  Is it some gap in the cap somehow that allows this?

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