psv88 Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 On 8/2/2017 at 6:04 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I remember multiple damaging wind events caused by thunderstorms growing up in the 80/90s. The best being an early august storm in the early 90s. The cover of news day had 5 o'clock shadow.... anyone have any info on that storm? There was widespread wind damage on the island. (Way before the 98 derecho) Expand Yea same here...growing up there were bad storms all the time, and many late at night. Now its rare to non-existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 1.75" hail reported in Thornwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 Light rain in manhattan. Definitely cooler here then on the island. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 The trend on the last four runs of the GEFS show a major shift towards a late re-curve around August 15th and is supported by the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 On 8/3/2017 at 5:41 PM, NJwx85 said: The trend on the last four runs of the GEFS show a major shift towards a late re-curve around August 15th and is supported by the OP. Expand Now that the power is restored I'm sure glad I'm going to OBX next week and not that week. Of course so much will change between now and the 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Would this be a category 5 hurricane? 928 millibar storm would break records! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 On 8/4/2017 at 11:01 AM, WeatherFeen2000 said: Would this be a category 5 hurricane? 928 millibar storm would break records! Expand Is this a serious post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 GFS LOL! (Although we are due, I think it's been 13+ years without a major to the US?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mophstymeo01 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 On 8/4/2017 at 11:01 AM, WeatherFeen2000 said: Would this be a category 5 hurricane? 928 millibar storm would break records!Wake me when the Euro and the Ukie are spitting out the same solution.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 On 8/3/2017 at 11:21 PM, IrishRob17 said: Now that the power is restored I'm sure glad I'm going to OBX next week and not that week. Of course so much will change between now and the 15th Expand Leaving for St. Augustine on the 15th and then up to SC for the eclipse... I'm sure this will find a way to throw a wrench in my plans somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 On 8/4/2017 at 1:34 PM, Juliancolton said: Leaving for St. Augustine on the 15th and then up to SC for the eclipse... I'm sure this will find a way to throw a wrench in my plans somehow. Expand For your sake I hope not. Of course OBX had a stellar week last week weather wise while the two islands were evacuated, looks like chances of showers while I'm there next week. No complaints from me though, I'll be there and I've been in the pool during showers before. I've also been able to see some great cloud structures down there and a number of water spouts, one which was within a mile of the house that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 The GEFS is tightly clustered with future Franklin and then splits into two distinct camps. It appears that the slower the evolution the further West it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 EURO goes into northeast Mexico by day 10, with AN pressures along East Coast at a time when GFS has deep hurricane going there. Standby for a PageOneReplate from one of these newspapers. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 5, 2017 Share Posted August 5, 2017 the upgraded gfs is worse than the older version with atlantic hurricanes. use with caution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 6, 2017 Share Posted August 6, 2017 Extreme 2000's heavy rain pattern continues. 5"+ flash floods in Atlantic City, Miami Beach, and New Orleans in just one week. http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/07/rain_high_winds_flood_warnings_for_half_of_nj.html https://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/news/articles/heavy-rain-triggers-flash-flooding-power-outages-in-miami/84749/ http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/flooding_in_mid-city_french_qu.html Desert SW flooding with the very strong monsoon. http://abc13.com/weather/video-freak-flooding-on-las-vegas-strip-engulfs-taxi/2279117/ Extremely humid tropical airmass over #SoCal today. Precipitable water at#SanDiego a record for date; in top 10 ever recorded https://mobile.twitter.com/Weather_West/status/892770380737167361/photo/1# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 This is my personal favorite winter weather image of the 2000's so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 the euro screwed up that storm too. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 On 8/7/2017 at 10:22 PM, forkyfork said: the euro screwed up that storm too. lol Expand Haha. Both of them. And totally lost Boxing Day for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Summer is over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 On 8/7/2017 at 10:24 PM, Rjay said: Haha. Both of them. Expand i think the issue that caused the euro to go overboard with today's storm caused it to be wrong before the blizzard. it kept blowing up convection offshore into its own little system which made the blizzard disjointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 On 8/7/2017 at 10:27 PM, forkyfork said: i think the issue that caused the euro to go overboard with today's storm caused it to be wrong before the blizzard. it kept blowing up convection offshore into its own little system which made the blizzard disjointed Expand It lost Boxing Day and it wasn't very helpful (besides a few runs) with the 1/26-27/11 storm. Also Jan 2015 (Juno) was a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 On 8/7/2017 at 10:27 PM, forkyfork said: i think the issue that caused the euro to go overboard with today's storm caused it to be wrong before the blizzard. it kept blowing up convection offshore into its own little system which made the blizzard disjointed Expand To be honest, every global model was having that issue with Jan 2016. They were all blowing up the convection offshore and then pulling the low east towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 On 8/7/2017 at 10:31 PM, Rjay said: To be honest, every global model was having that issue with Jan 2016. They were all blowing up the convection offshore and then pulling the low east towards it. Expand oceanstwx made a good point earlier today On 8/7/2017 at 7:00 PM, OceanStWx said: Nothing new really, NH summer is always the worst. But I think the more and more you drill down the resolution to the convective scale the more likely you are going to see convection play a larger role in the solution. Not always for the best. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 ^ Yup. Thanks. I remember with Boxing Day, it wasn't convection that screwed with the models. It was s/w flying due south out of no man's land (northern Canada) that every model missed ~days 2 through 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 On 8/7/2017 at 10:27 PM, forkyfork said: i think the issue that caused the euro to go overboard with today's storm caused it to be wrong before the blizzard. it kept blowing up convection offshore into its own little system which made the blizzard disjointed Expand The good news is that 60-120 mile short term errors in storm tracks don't impact the 1-5 and 6-10 day 500 mb means much where the EPS really excels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 On 8/7/2017 at 10:46 PM, bluewave said: The good news is that 60-120 mile shifts in storm tracks don't impact the 1-5 and 6-10 days means much where the EPS really excels. Expand The EPS is great recognizing hemispheric patterns before other ensembles. My only issue with it is that the mean seems to follow the OP around like a lost puppy with specific storm threats in the medium range since its upgrades over the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Man. What a storm 1/26-27/11 was around the area. KNYC reported >.30 liquid for a few hours straight. BDR was .43 one hour. Islip reported 5" of snow one hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 On 8/7/2017 at 11:14 PM, Rjay said: Man. What a storm 1/26-28/11 was around the area. KNYC reported >.30 liquid for a few hours straight. BDR was .43 one hour. Islip reported 5" of snow one hour. Expand Islip did that for 'Nemo' as well I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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