NJwx85 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 While the details are still being ironed out, models are in general agreement on another big cut off low with possible surface development during this weekend into the middle of next week. Several inches of rain and below normal temperatures are possible. While the 12z GFS focuses the heaviest rains towards NY and PA, we've seen this area jump around from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 2, 2017 Author Share Posted June 2, 2017 Para GFS is a bit further South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 2, 2017 Author Share Posted June 2, 2017 The 18z NAM warm sectors us on Monday with 1500-2000 j/kg of SBCAPE and decent shear ahead of the developing surface low. Would be a fairly substantial severe threat if it materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 18z NAM warm sectors us on Monday with 1500-2000 j/kg of SBCAPE and decent shear ahead of the developing surface low. Would be a fairly substantial severe threat if it materialized. I was wondering why it was so dry-that makes sense. - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 2, 2017 Author Share Posted June 2, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: I was wondering why it was so dry-that makes sense. - If you posted the rest of the run it shows 1"+ from 84 North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: If you posted the rest of the run it shows 1"+ from 84 North. out of range.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 2, 2017 Author Share Posted June 2, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: out of range.... Not really, it's showing the convection that I was talking about coming through on Monday. You cannot make a comment about something while leaving half of the information out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not really, it's showing the convection that I was talking about coming through on Monday. You cannot make a comment about something while leaving half of the information out. using the NAM to 24 hrs is a stretch let alone 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 2, 2017 Author Share Posted June 2, 2017 23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: using the NAM to 24 hrs is a stretch let alone 66 You specifically stated the model was dry and if you had waited another 12 hours you would have seen that it's not the case. If you had said the NAM was dry through the first 24 hours that would have been a completely different statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 The setup after 00Z Monday is so insanely convoluted I'm not sure we have much idea til 00Z runs tomorrow night, so basically 3 more main model suites. The one thing I'm becoming more confident of is that nothing really occurs south of an Albany to State College to Columbus line before 8pm Sunday. Beyond that I have low confidence. I can see Monday being a classic warm sector with chance for something big that afternoon but I can also see it being a mess with too many clouds and just showers. That surface low interaction/development is just too complicated after 00Z Monday. **The 18Z Op GFS and to an extent the 18Z 12km NAM are examples of how this could be a nothing event. Sunday stays north and maybe something crosses late overnight as a weakening line or showers. Then all the energy and focus is forced south for Monday and we have NE flow with the developing surface low over the MA passing to the south. The Op Euro I felt moved this way a bit today but it doesn't force everything south as far so Monday still had potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 2, 2017 Author Share Posted June 2, 2017 38 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The setup after 00Z Monday is so insanely convoluted I'm not sure we have much idea til 00Z runs tomorrow night, so basically 3 more main model suites. The one thing I'm becoming more confident of is that nothing really occurs south of an Albany to State College to Columbus line before 8pm Sunday. Beyond that I have low confidence. I can see Monday being a classic warm sector with chance for something big that afternoon but I can also see it being a mess with too many clouds and just showers. That surface low interaction/development is just too complicated after 00Z Monday The 18z GFS hangs up the warm front near 84. SW of there gets moderately unstable, but the main focus is over the Delmarva with the developing surface low. We really want this to cutoff further SW so that the low tucks into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The 18z GFS hangs up the warm front near 84. SW of there gets moderately unstable, but the main focus is over the Delmarva with the developing surface low. We really want this to cutoff further SW so that the low tucks into the coast. I just edited the initial post to say how that 18Z GFS is pretty much the classic example poster of how this could be nothing for the Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 2, 2017 Author Share Posted June 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I just edited the initial post to say how that 18Z GFS is pretty much the classic example poster of how this could be nothing for the Metro. It's just one run. The 12z GEFS mean was wetter and further South than the OP. Curious to see what 18z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted June 2, 2017 Share Posted June 2, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: It's just one run. The 12z GEFS mean was wetter and further South than the OP. Curious to see what 18z does. My hunch right now is we will continue to see Sunday's south and east progression slow slightly on the models. Possibly to the point almost nothing gets south of the PA/NY border til late evening. That should then open the door for Monday but the way the surface low forms to the SW or doesn't form would still be a big question. I'm not surprised to see Sunday's south/east progression slow up as it seems models at this time of year at day 4-6 are always too fast moving any sort of system along by as much as 24 hours at that range sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 2, 2017 Author Share Posted June 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: My hunch right now is we will continue to see Sunday's south and east progression slow slightly on the models. Possibly to the point almost nothing gets south of the PA/NY border til late evening. That should then open the door for Monday but the way the surface low forms to the SW or doesn't form would still be a big question. I'm not surprised to see Sunday's south/east progression slow up as it seems models at this time of year at day 4-6 are always too fast moving any sort of system along by as much as 24 hours at that range sometimes Yeah it seems almost that if you want the stronger storms on Monday you need Sunday to stay to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 3, 2017 Author Share Posted June 3, 2017 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The Miller B dryslot will be the wild card here. The Euro still has it close to our area. Shift that and the whole forecast changes. I think there could be surprises given the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 3, 2017 Author Share Posted June 3, 2017 12z Euro ticked South for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 12z Euro has the mother of all cutoffs of precip-close to nothing next 10 days south of NYC...one inch around 287 and close to 3 inches north of I84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: 12z Euro has the mother of all cutoffs of precip-close to nothing next 10 days south of NYC...one inch around 287 and close to 3 inches north of I84 anything past 4 days fo qpf is silly. Last weekend on this day Mt Holly NWS was worried about very heavy rain today. top 20 day for the summer. 69F and booming sun out with a stiff breeze. 12 GFS total QPF for 96 hrs is 3/4 to 1.5 inches of water for the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 3 hours ago, NJwx85 said: 12z Euro ticked South for tomorrow. The near nothing scenario is evolving for sure. It looks some showers and maybe a tstm between 9pm-3am tomorrow night and then perhaps some pop up stuff beneath the upper low Monday in the afternoon but the boundary timing Sunday is too late after heating and the Monday setup everything is south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 3, 2017 Author Share Posted June 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The near nothing scenario is evolving for sure. It looks some showers and maybe a tstm between 9pm-3am tomorrow night and then perhaps some pop up stuff beneath the upper low Monday in the afternoon but the boundary timing Sunday is too late after heating and the Monday setup everything is south Monday came way North on the 18z GFS. Much smaller of a dry slot this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The near nothing scenario is evolving for sure. It looks some showers and maybe a tstm between 9pm-3am tomorrow night and then perhaps some pop up stuff beneath the upper low Monday in the afternoon but the boundary timing Sunday is too late after heating and the Monday setup everything is south yea..my wife keeps telling me it is going to rain tomorrow. Told her this morning.......heading to Cape May NJ for a few days. Rain tomorrow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 Most of the models seem to be in agreement on not seeing much in the NYC metro area, maybe that will change over the next 24 hours but as of now it look like all of the action will be to our north and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 3, 2017 Author Share Posted June 3, 2017 Just now, Rtd208 said: Most of the models seem to be in agreement on not seeing much in the NYC metro area, maybe that will change over the next 24 hours but as of now it look like all of the action will be to our north and south. 18z PARA GFS brings 1"+ up to 80 and almost 2" into Monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 I would watch for some surprise area of tstms to maybe outrun everything late in the afternoon tomorrow, especially the lower Hudson Valley. There is some hint of that on a few models. I'm a bit skeptical though because the midlevel flow to me doesn't look fast enough or even have enough of a NW component for that to really happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 OZ Euro likes north of 84 with up to 3 inches. Lesser amounts as you head south-some areas south of NYC see very little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 4, 2017 Author Share Posted June 4, 2017 All that rain in NW PA is on a good trajectory to cross this area this afternoon. The HRRR agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 4, 2017 Author Share Posted June 4, 2017 Here comes the first batch out of the Poconos. Models had way too sharp of a cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 4, 2017 Author Share Posted June 4, 2017 .02" so far but heavier rain is moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 4, 2017 Share Posted June 4, 2017 Looks like a pretty good area of rain moving ESE, we will probably see some thunderstorms later as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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