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Summer Banter & General Discussion/Observations


CapturedNature

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14 hours ago, dendrite said:

It may never stop raining.

Lots of rainy days here, 19 of 30 last month and 1 for 1 in July, but June finished 3.1" BN for precip, 3rd driest of 20.  We've had 3-4 FF watches and a couple svr watches, and my biggest one-day rain since May 26 is 0.50", yesterday, and our 2 TS last month included zero strikes closer than 3 miles and winds gusting all the way to 20 mph.  Can we say, "meh?"  June temps finished a tiny bit (0.08") BN, thanks to the last 5 days canceling the +1F for 1-25.

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Any questions why we rightfully were arrogant in throwing drought caution to the wind last year ?  ...haha, 'rightfully arrogant' should chap some petty reader bums.  Seriously, at the time we were dismissive because we know our climatology all too well - a couple solid coastal's and three thunderstorms later or whatever it's been and drought?  - joke.  Gee, guess what happened.

We don't have systemic droughts like California ...or better yet, the Sudan.  Understanding the 100,000 mile perspective that eastern N/A sits in an eternally damned trough ... relative to the western N/A planetary bulge, means that we are indeterminably rescued as to when, but rescued at less than dire lengths of time we definitely will be.  Either that, or... you are going to be waiting a very long, long time before a drought of any true profound consequence will take place...Like probably longer than the average human life-span.  We can cook up 1 to 2 year negative departures and call those droughts by the operational hydrology definitions employed by US DM ... but, those will get lost in 10 to 20 year above normal total averages as noise. I guess in some far-out Sci Fiction future where GW has gotten so bad that it somehow usurps the governing mechanical forcing that governs the base-line circulation over N/A ... but -

-----

Special shout-out goes to the GFS operational ...and to a great extent the GEFs mean.

Over the last seven to ten day worth of guidance cycling, we've witness the GFS operational steadfast in its denial to raise eastern N/A heights (at mid latitudes) ...such that would bring deeper tropospheric continental heat to OV and EC ...much like the Euro and GGEM and their ensemble means were overtly suggesting. An extended range conflict was underway... 

About two days ago, tho ... the foreign modeling camps began to collapsed, while GFS has remained steadfast in its proposal that at least for this first week to two weeks of July ... those that embrace, seek, and wantonly root on big heat are now left only with sore butts  (thankfully ... there is no such person whose posting behavior matches all that criteria) 

We'll see what ultimately verifies, but at least for the moment ... that all points to a clear victor in the GFS.

And it gets better.  About five days ago, the GFS operational began 'denting' the trade-wind latitude PP out between west Africa and the eastern Caribbean; it was the only model doing so. It kept doing so.  Run after run ... after run. The model's been persistently churning out solutions that brought a TC up toward the Bahamas.  As of overnight, NHC has designated the region just WSW of the CV's with a low probability, but gaining one nonetheless... As well, all operational models now agree with the GFS' showing carrying dents and closures in the PP. 

The transient global indicators aren't really impressive ... VV potential and so forth, but .. we'll see.   

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Any questions why we rightfully were arrogant in throwing drought caution to the wind last year ?  ...haha, 'rightfully arrogant' should chap some petty reader bums.  Seriously, at the time we were dismissive because we know our climatology all too well - a couple solid coastal's and three thunderstorms later or whatever it's been and drought?  - joke.  Gee, guess what happened.

We don't have systemic droughts like California ...or better yet, the Sudan.  Understanding the 100,000 mile perspective that eastern N/A sits in an eternally damned trough ... relative to the western N/A planetary bulge, means that we are indeterminably rescued as to when, but rescued at less than dire lengths of time we definitely will be.  Either that, or... you are going to be waiting a very long, long time before a drought of any true profound consequence will take place...Like probably longer than the average human life-span.  We can cook up 1 to 2 year negative departures and call those droughts by the operational hydrology definitions employed by US DM ... but, those will get lost in 10 to 20 year above normal total averages as noise. I guess in some far-out Sci Fiction future where GW has gotten so bad that it somehow usurps the governing mechanical forcing that governs the base-line circulation over N/A ... but -

-----

Special shout-out goes to the GFS operational ...and to a great extent the GEFs mean.

Over the last seven to ten day worth of guidance cycling, we've witness the GFS operational steadfast in its denial to raise eastern N/A heights (at mid latitudes) ...such that would bring deeper tropospheric continental heat to OV and EC ...much like the Euro and GGEM and their ensemble means were overtly suggesting. An extended range conflict was underway... 

About two days ago, tho ... the foreign modeling camps began to collapsed, while GFS has remained steadfast in its proposal that at least for this first week to two weeks of July ... those that embrace, seek, and wantonly root on big heat are now left only with sore butts  (thankfully ... there is no such person whose posting behavior matches all that criteria) 

We'll see what ultimately verifies, but at least for the moment ... that all points to a clear victor in the GFS.

And it gets better.  About five days ago, the GFS operational began 'denting' the trade-wind latitude PP out between west Africa and the eastern Caribbean; it was the only model doing so. It kept doing so.  Run after run ... after run. It the model churned out solutions that brought a TC up toward the Bahamas.  As of overnight, NHC has designated the region just WSW of the CV's with a low probability, but gaining one nonetheless... As well, all operational models now agree with the GFS' showing carrying dents and closures in the PP. 

The transient global indicators aren't really impressive ... VV potential and so forth, but .. we'll see.   

 

 

New England experiences faux-droughts.  We equate not being able to water lawns daily to an African famine.

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Savvy web-users are probably going to laugh at me for this ... but, I just stumbled onto some seriously sick high resolution satellite provided by NEXLAB:

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=newyork-02-24-1

 

The granularity of this is nothing shy of arresting...  look in awe at individual, distinct cloud features.  You also get clear impressions of differential motions, too.

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Savvy web-users are probably going to laugh at me for this ... but, I just stumbled onto some seriously sick high resolution satellite provided by NEXLAB:

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=newyork-02-24-1

 

The granularity of this is nothing shy of arresting...  look in awe at individual, distinct cloud features.  You also get clear impressions of differential motions, too.

Yeah,  I have been using this site for the past month or two.  I think GOES 16 is positioned over 85W but will move to 75W this fall.  That will give less distortion to New England?  With my 4K laptop screen and the windows magnifying tool it is crazy how good the resolution is.  Love the GOES 16

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13 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Yeah,  I have been using this site for the past month or two.  I think GOES 16 is positioned over 85W but will move to 75W this fall.  That will give less distortion to New England?  With my 4K laptop screen and the windows magnifying tool it is crazy how good the resolution is.  Love the GOES 16

Yes and the broader scoped products (and the site is still in development so bravo to Dupage for their efforts!!!) are equally stunning, too.   Can you imagine that U.S. perspective with a one-eyed monster turning NW near the Bahamas?   You couldn't see that in a movie -

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Mother Nature being cool again.

This looked like a layer of clouds was actually undercutting the smoother layer above it.

Is this just cooler dense air moving under and there was almost some mammatus clouds that developed briefly.

19554183_10103057171355960_2654945813732

 

It actually showed up on radar as an almost weak boundary pushing through with a few sprinkles.

IMG_6284.thumb.PNG.f1c7ff7ad3b1109c3408f2006768a786.PNG

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3 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

New England experiences faux-droughts.  We equate not being able to water lawns daily to an African famine.

Nearest to a "real" drought was 1962-66, not too serious in NNE but obliterated low-precip records in SNE and adjacent MA.  However, a region in which climo includes regular precip in all months grows vegetation to match, meaning loads of fuel that even a month or two of very dry wx can turn into tinder.  1947 in Maine was wet thru midsummer, then increasingly dry until late October, when crispy fuel and strong winds made history. 

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