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Summer Banter & General Discussion/Observations


CapturedNature

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12 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

IDK I saw dozens of Oaks that did not leaf out this year including one in my yard that appeared perfectly healthy last year and even releafed. Somethings going on with Oaks

Oak wilt, a fungal disease that can cause quick mortality, is moving east from where it's been doing much damage in the Midwest, but I don't think it's made it past PA yet.  Sometimes trees just die, for no readily apparent reason.  A very nice pin oak along Rt 2 as one drives into Farmington from the east had its usual bright colors last fall, and has nary a leaf this year.  Tree is about 18" diam., 45 feet tall, full crown with few/no dead limbs (last year.) 

High of only 69.0F today here. Meanwhile Coos and northern Grafton baked into the 80s. 

And no farther east.  Had perhaps 30 seconds of sun yesterday morning and a high of 63, with high rh that kept the mosquitos thick all day long.

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

the eps keeps delaying the arrival of cooler wx. hmm

It's a weird mass field spread...

It's an index flipping to negative PNA(which is supposedly less correlate-able in summer) combined with a statically positive NAO.  That should be more akin to a rising heights and heat transport/genesis in the eastern U.S. but the operational model continues to fight tooth and nail against it's ensembles - ..that may be more evident in the GEFs than the EPS... The GFS does sometimes have a 594 dm ridge node but it's fascinating how it keeps the westerlies locked at our latitude while doing so.  (Which by the way...I don't recall seeing so many ridges with 594 heights before!)

The only thing really going for a cooler look is the -EPO, but with wave lengths systemically shrunk for the season I'm not sure -1 SD EPO really means a whole helluva lot.  No..it really just looks like the operational models have correction schemes in them that are doing the muting more so than physical processing out in time - least that's what it looks like to me if only for muse.   The operational GFS is a riot ... Para-GFS, too... it uses a TC to block the heat from coming east - amazing...  if all else fails, use the tropics to stop the tropics ahaha. This model will stop at nothing to prevent heat from showing up in NE in it's extended frames... It has to be 72 hours or something before it capitulates to a possible heat wave.

I still think it is possible that these operational runs start correcting toward a hotter look to close out the month - but it seems most are on board with some sort of summery look I suppose.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol I've never seen someone so fascinated or obsessed with these things.  Even making more posts about insects than your high dews you've finally got.

It just really intrigues me. How these things cause so much destruction in a short few week period. Anything that is destructive just draws me in. I can't explain it 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It just really intrigues me. How these things cause so much destruction in a short few week period. Anything that is destructive just draws me in. I can't explain it 

Oh hey I get it.  It's a fascinating natural disaster in a way.  Nature destroying itself.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oh hey I get it.  It's a fascinating natural disaster in a way.  Nature destroying itself.

First week -10 days of July or so they stop eating . Form the pupas and as I recall last year late July into August there's a week or so when the air is filled with light brown moths. I remember last year a few days and nights where they were everywhere. The air was thick with them . I guess if we don't see that this year, then the fungus worked to some degree. But I just think there's too many of them to kill them off

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

 I'm not sure -1 SD EPO really means a whole helluva lot. 

 

That has trended more robust w/ every cycle on the EPS. Latest run indicates -4 SD. If that's close to correct, there certainly will be a fairly impressive cool pool expansion across North America. I think it's legitimate in that we'll end up with a normal to below normal period June 26-Jul 2 or so.

30a72fr.png

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1 minute ago, Isotherm said:

 

That has trended more robust w/ every cycle on the EPS. Latest run indicates -4 SD. If that's close to correct, there certainly will be a fairly impressive cool pool expansion across North America. I think it's legitimate in that we'll end up with a normal to below normal period June 26-Jul 2 or so.

30a72fr.png

With trough axis centered over Great Lakes not Northeast .. we should see that area BN with New England on the + side .. albeit alternating humid/ mild downs 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With trough axis centered over Great Lakes not Northeast .. we should see that area BN with New England on the + side .. albeit alternating humid/ mild downs 

 

Initially. But that should press east somewhat. Could see a couple days with modest negative departures near the end of the month.

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1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

 

That has trended more robust w/ every cycle on the EPS. Latest run indicates -4 SD. If that's close to correct, there certainly will be a fairly impressive cool pool expansion across North America. I think it's legitimate in that we'll end up with a normal to below normal period June 26-Jul 2 or so.

30a72fr.png

Well it certainly could be negative if that has legs ... I've often argued that teleconnectors in the summers are about thresholds and needing big values. 

But even the winter -EPOs can lower heights out west first and in fact that's typical. Combining that with shortened and stochastic wavelengths makes it unclear what that means in summer. 

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