Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Summer Banter & General Discussion/Observations

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 4.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Bellevue NE, same neighborhood my son used to live in

Normally you wouldn't think twice about calling that tornado damage, but out that way you can't always be so sure. 

Right after I left DVN (:underthewx:) this happened: https://www.weather.gov/dvn/ev20110711derecho

Tore down brick facades. No joke straight line wind Kevin could only dream of.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

I can't recall seeing this before with dual-pol. Intuitively it makes sense, strong winds can loft all sizes of objects, but I had not seen an example of low CC on the leading edge of strong straight line winds. Not quite like a TDS, but similar.

keax_20170617_0516_CC_0.5.thumb.png.f7da0d7fd5a905a0a3508781a0a0519d.png

You can see one boundary through Wyandotte County and another through Jackson and Lafayette.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Amazing satellite presentation in the IR overnight of that MCS through the MV...  I've seen hurricanes with smaller envelopment than that beast!  Cloud tops down to what - 70 ..80 C ? 

Here's the deal... that sucker ran down the best tropospheric gradient (for all intents and purposes..) between a historically/near historically hot air mass over the SW, and the lingering weakness/troughing near the GL/OV region.  

It's almost like the atmosphere (symbolically) protects it's cold regions from washing over with warmth in that way, where the MCS ends up blocking the advection terms by using the warmth as convective dynamical energy ... effectively beating back any warm air that would otherwise freely flow in an establishing SW flow behind said weakness/trough as it tries to fill/move out. ...the whole thing delays/holds back warm ups. 

But, the impetus here is delay ...  That heat in the SW is amazing.  PHX soundings appear to support very upper tier results.  MOS' at 116 F could even be underdone because the acme of the warmest is still some three to four days out when where climatology tends to mute anomalies.   Which also means, typically hot locations could be near all-time heat.  Looking at some typically used sigma levels and my god ... LBB sporting thicknesses approaching 600 (not heights, thickness!) DM prior to the bigger/main heat genesis back west over the SW.  PHX has a 900 MB temperatures 31 C and 800 MB temperatures of 20 C heading into Monday.  I think the heat maxes Monday through Wednesday ..  Anyway, these numbers are eye-popping but I am actually not sure how they compare to history; just going by AFDs around the area the appear to be right up there.  

And... as the operational models keep signalling ... the rest of the nation east of roughly IA to TX is in wait to see when/where pulses of this air gets shredded off like pieces of solar ejecta passing through looping images of the sun's chromosphere and sent down stream.  You can see particular pieces of that super charged air in the 850 mb products that are of sufficient granularity (tropical tidbits provides products that show this the best...).  

The question of downstream latitude ... there's been hints the system wants to bring Hades to the U.S. ..but, right now the models want to keep the main conveyor axis and it's embedded 'plasma' masses S of the 40th parallel...thankfully!  Not pleasant to possibly dangerous for the middle MV and TV regions..   However, the GEFs feebling teleconnector correlations ... well, the PNA is supposedly useless now, but seeing it's -2 SD correction in tandem with a statically positive NAO, still doesn't set well with me that the operational models are altogether having the right idea of keeping the erosive power of the northern stream calving off the heights from expanding N the way they are.  Both models (Euro and GFS) can have a way of eroding heights too liberally in their middle and extended ranges for their own particular bias/reasons.  Worth it to keep an eye on... But the fact that this is happening (also) so early in the year is a bit alarming (or should be) for the rest of the summer.  This isn't like heat in the Dakotas that is ephemeral in nature ...the SW is an "anchor point" and perhaps signals a fundamental issue with the whole of the circulation.  

It's odd...it's like they models keep evolving 595 to 600 DM height nodes less than 800 naut miles S of 80 knt N stream/hemispheric jet structures.. It's like we have this plaguing problem with too much gradient in the atmosphere, still!  Typically by now the wind fields aloft are unilaterally/systemically weakening associated with summer, but the models keep setting up these SPV gyres whirling about whie near historical heights and thickness kiss up against them roughly along 35 N, and we end up with a maelstrom of positive wind anomalies. 

No one seems to take that seriously ...but I imho it's noteworthy.  I think it's just another gem of GW possibly rearing a presentation ... but who knows -

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Presently this is a fantastic example of topographic cold trapping going on over all of the I-95 corridor from Main to the Carolinas.  It may be eroding some as we type ..but, looping high res vis satellite images you get the distinct impression that the air mass and it's saturated cool murk is quite literally 'stranded' by a weak gradient not penetrating deeply into the bottom of the troposphere east of the Appalachian cordillera (chain of elevatios..)  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Amazing satellite presentation in the IR overnight of that MCS through the MV...  I've seen hurricanes with smaller envelopment than that beast!  Cloud tops down to what - 70 ..80 C ? 

Here's the deal... that sucker ran down the best tropospheric gradient (for all intents and purposes..) between a historically/near historically hot air mass over the SW, and the lingering weakness/troughing near the GL/OV region.  

It's almost like the atmosphere (symbolically) protects it's cold regions from washing over with warmth in that way, where the MCS ends up blocking the advection terms by using the warmth as convective dynamical energy ... effectively beating back any warm air that would otherwise freely flow in an establishing SW flow behind said weakness/trough as it tries to fill/move out. ...the whole thing delays/holds back warm ups. 

But, the impetus here is delay ...  That heat in the SW is amazing.  PHX soundings appear to support very upper tier results.  MOS' at 116 F could even be underdone because the acme of the warmest is still some three to four days out when where climatology tends to mute anomalies.   Which also means, typically hot locations could be near all-time heat.  Looking at some typically used sigma levels and my god ... LBB sporting thicknesses approaching 600 (not heights, thickness!) DM prior to the bigger/main heat genesis back west over the SW.  PHX has a 900 MB temperatures 31 C and 800 MB temperatures of 20 C heading into Monday.  I think the heat maxes Monday through Wednesday ..  Anyway, these numbers are eye-popping but I am actually not sure how they compare to history; just going by AFDs around the area the appear to be right up there.  

And... as the operational models keep signalling ... the rest of the nation east of roughly IA to TX is in wait to see when/where pulses of this air gets shredded off like pieces of solar ejecta passing through looping images of he sun's chromosphere, and sent down stream.  You can see particular pieces of that super charged air in the 850 mb products that are of sufficient granularity (tropical tidbits provides products that show this the best...).  

The question of downstream latitude ... there's been hints the system wants to bring Hades to the U.S. ..but, right now the models want to keep the main conveyor axis and it's embedded 'plasma' masses S of the 40th parallel...thankfully!  Not pleasant to possibly dangerous for the middle MV and TV regions..   However, the GEFs feebling teleconnector correlations ... well, the PNA is supposedly useless now, but seeing it's -2 SD correction in tandem with a statically positive NAO, still doesn't set well with me that the operational models are altogether having the right idea of keeping the erosive power of the northern stream calving off the heights from expanding N the way they are.  

It's odd...it's like they have 595 to 600 DM height nodes less than 800 naut miles S of 80 knt N stream/hemispheric jet structures.. It's like we have this plaguing problem with too much gradient in the atmosphere, still!  Typically by now the wind fields aloft are unilaterally/systemically weakening associated with summer, but the models keep setting up these SPV gyres whirling about whie near historical heights and thickness kiss up against them roughly along 35 N, and we end up with a maelstrom of positive wind anomalies. 

No one seems to take that seriously ...but I imho it's noteworthy.  I think it's just another gem of GW possibly rearing a presentation ... but who knows -

Tip,  I love your posts.  I wish Google had a interpreter app  to "dump down" your posts so people with lower IQ's like me can understand more than 50% of what you are saying!..ha!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Tip,  I love your posts.  I wish Google had a interpreter app  to "dump down" your posts so people with lower IQ's like me can understand more than 50% of what you are saying!..ha!

Sorry bro - ha! 

Saturday morning joe-speak, ya know?   I'm sure that raw intellect has nothing to do with my own inability to feed complexity to the reader in an easily palatable manner - hahaha.  

In simple terms...   giant heat in the southwest of the country nears or exceeds historic numbers this next week.   Everyone over the eastern part of the continent should monitor ( that's in the weather game ) because despite the seasonal handicapping of the teleconnector usefulness/correlations?  The PNA is still flipping to a negative phase while the NAO remains above 0 standard deviations shortly after that heat has been created in the SW (which altogether ... likely fails to simplify much haha).  

That tele change is typically correlated to rising heights over the eastern part of the nation's/middle latitudes of the continent.  That happens toward the end of next week...  

Here's the deal... in the past I've used the term "Sonoran hear release" - I'm not sure if I made that up or heard it said/written at some point over the last 20 years... But, this is a classic set up for one of those  (we already had weak one during/preceding the last heat wave).  

What happens: you get a build up of big heat in the ideal genesis pot of the SW, where favorable circumstantial geography meets with summer sun... That heats extends over time, up through the troposphere in time significantly becoming EML but also, critical to this dialogue the 850 MB layer gets very thermally supercharged ...  

Next, along comes a subtle pattern change, when heights relax in the west while seesawing in the other direction back east, and out she comes!  But the whole event is actually a series of events, that begin now... It's just like with commercial airline disasters; the entire incident began months or years earlier with failed screw somewhere - fast forward, and other favorable innocuous f'ups in a maintenance and whatever and it took a series of events to culminate in a fiery visage on the evening news.  Well, we first balloon heat from a synoptic trapping +PNA (that supposedly, seasonally shouldn't matter <_<   ), then ... the balloon pops and it's content flows down stream when western heights fall...  some 7 to 10 days later, headline heat strikes the OV/NE/MA regions...  

What makes it interesting for me is that operationally, this whole evolution before the tragedy of the airline disaster ...  the models seem to only hint at or miss along the way, at other times, see it pretty well.. But, the point is, there's some uncertainty there where the evolution is real but the models don't always see the thing in its entirety.  So it is worth it in my mind to understand where our 'big heat' in the east tends to come from.  I'm not talking the annoying grade-on of 87 to 92 F mid and late summer doldrums ... And it's also hard to know or separate.  I've seen temperatures exceed 95 in non Sonoran released air... I've also seen Sonoran released air contribute more to severe thunder and less heat. Things have to come together.  But your 101's to 103's tend to come from that source. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Came up to TH this morning . Can't go during week anymore with new job. All the way from Tolland to Monson looks like this. This was KTOL. Acres and hundreds of miles of Oaks totally bare. Will be a lot of tree death 

http://BF9A5022-C160-4CCE-8FC7-ABE78442598F_zps

When I lived in Metro Boston in the early 1980's there was a severe gypsy moth infestation.  The trees around Rt 128 looked like this.  I hiked the Blue Hills and the reservation looked almost bare in mid June.  It was crazy.  On the news every day.  Everyone thought there would be massive oak damage.  People were putting "tar" rings around the base of trees to save them.  The good news was that by mid summer the trees all sprouted a second growth.  Not quite as thick as the spring growth but the vast, vast majority of trees made it.  Watch what happens over the next few weeks.  I think repeated seasons of gypsy moths is what really hurts!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sorry bro - ha! 

Saturday morning joe-speak, ya know?   I'm sure that raw intellect has nothing to do with my own inability to feed complexity to the reader in an easily palatable manner - hahaha.  

In simple terms...   giant heat in the southwest of the country nears or exceeds historic numbers this next week.   Everyone over the eastern part of the continent should monitor ( that's in the weather game ) because despite the seasonal handicapping of the teleconnector usefulness/correlations?  The PNA is still flipping to a negative phase while the NAO remains above 0 standard deviations shortly after that heat has been created in the SW (which altogether ... likely fails to simplify much haha).  

That tele change is typically correlated to rising heights over the eastern part of the nation's/middle latitudes of the continent.  That happens toward the end of next week...  

Here's the deal... in the past I've used the term "Sonoran hear release" - I'm not sure if I made that up or heard it said/written at some point over the last 20 years... But, this is a classic set up for one of those  (we already had weak one during/preceding the last heat wave).  

What happens: you get a build up of big heat in the ideal genesis pot of the SW, where favorable circumstantial geography meets with summer sun... That heats extends over time, up through the troposphere in time significantly becoming EML but also, critical to this dialogue the 850 MB layer gets very thermally supercharged ...  

Next, along comes a subtle pattern change, when heights relax in the west while seesawing in the other direction back east, and out she comes!  But the whole event is actually a series of events, that begin now... It's just like with commercial airline disasters; the entire incident began months or years earlier with failed screw somewhere - fast forward, and other favorable innocuous f'ups in a maintenance and whatever and it took a series of events to culminate in a fiery visage on the evening news.  Well, we first balloon heat from a synoptic trapping +PNA (that supposedly, seasonally shouldn't matter <_<   ), then ... the balloon pops and it's content flows down stream when western heights fall...  some 7 to 10 days later, headline heat strikes the OV/NE/MA regions...  

What makes it interesting for me is that operationally, this whole evolution before the tragedy of the airline disaster ...  the models seem to only hint at or miss along the way, at other times, see it pretty well.. But, the point is, there's some uncertainty there where the evolution is real but the models don't always see the thing in its entirety.  So it is worth it in my mind to understand where our 'big heat' in the east tends to come from.  I'm not talking the annoying grade-on of 87 to 92 F mid and late summer doldrums ... And it's also hard to know or separate.  I've seen temperatures exceed 95 in non Sonoran released air... I've also seen Sonoran released air contribute more to severe thunder and less heat. Things have to come together.  But your 101's to 103's tend to come from that source. 

Thanks Tip.  Got it.  Keep the intellectual posts coming.  Lots of places on the net to read the "layman" type stuff.  I like AMWX cause it gives insight from good Met's like you.  That's hard to find...  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BrianW

BrianW

Posted
Posted

I'm out in Kansas City visiting family. Last night was epic. I was on the 12th floor roof of my hotel when the storms came through. Looks to be abother exciting day here.... Kev would be in heaven with the dews/heat today. 

000
FXUS63 KEAX 171136
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
636 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 416 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

Another very active day shaping up for the region as multiple
concerns exist this morning with respect to excessive heat and
redeveloping severe storms later this afternoon. Before diving
into those details, severe MCS that brought widespread damage to
the Lower Missouri Valley continues tracking into southwest
Missouri this morning, with residual elevated storms north of the
expanding outflow bringing isolated severe hail reports to north-
central Kansas. Available high-res model guidance shows all
activity rapidly tracking southeast this morning, thus setting
the stage for clearing skies later this morning and the arrival of
the warmest temperatures of the season as highs climb well into
the middle 90s this afternoon.

Despite the storm activity this morning, aforementioned clearing
along with added boundary layer moisture from this morning`s
rainfall will lead to downright oppressive conditions this
afternoon. Latest model guidance indicates dewpoint temperatures
will hover in the middle to upper 70s today, which combined with
highs in the mid 90s, will lead to heat indices ranging from
105-113 degrees. Considering this morning`s rainfall and various
model solutions which show of a well-defined theta-e ridge
extending across our area, have elected to upgrade the heat
advisory to an excessive heat warning for the KC Metro and points
immediately to the south. Its going to be a warm one but
fortunately cooler air is not too far away. We just need to get
through one more busy night before we see some relief.

Moving on to the severe threat, today`s environment looks
potentially volatile considering the moisture availability and
the expectation that an elevated mixed layer will be firmly in
place by afternoon. In fact, latest GOES-16 low-level water vapor
imagery showing the initial signs of midlevel drying working east
from northeastern Colorado this morning as midlevel flow begins
to increase in advance of well-defined shortwave trough currently
digging across the Northern Rockies and Intermountain West. Steep
midlevel lapse rates resulting from the EML, along with increasing
PVA in advance of the aforementioned wave and convergence along
the southward sagging cold front will set the stage for
rapid convective development later today. Quick look at several
BUFKIT soundings from across the area shows MLCAPE values in
excess of 6000 J/kg, with deep layered shear values more than
supportive of storm maintenance. Bulk shear vector orientation
should largely be parallel to the incoming cold front, suggesting
a multicell linear morphology as convection becomes organized
along the front later today. Activity should initially develop
near the Route 36 corridor before expanding southeast with time
through the early evening and overnight hours. Considering the
amount of instability available, large hail and strong winds will
likely be the main threats, with a limited tornado threat in
response to along parallel 0-3 km bulk shear vector orientation.
If there`s any silver lining, its that much of the area will see
another healthy round of rain which much of the region can surely
benefit from.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

When I lived in Metro Boston in the early 1980's there was a severe gypsy moth infestation.  The trees around Rt 128 looked like this.  I hiked the Blue Hills and the reservation looked almost bare in mid June.  It was crazy.  On the news every day.  Everyone thought there would be massive oak damage.  People were putting "tar" rings around the base of trees to save them.  The good news was that by mid summer the trees all sprouted a second growth.  Not quite as thick as the spring growth but the vast, vast majority of trees made it.  Watch what happens over the next few weeks.  I think repeated seasons of gypsy moths is what really hurts!

Lost one Oak this year due to one year of Gypsy moths, all oaks stripped again

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...