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Summer Banter & General Discussion/Observations


CapturedNature

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12 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

the kinks in the isohytes drop from northeasterly to southwesterly suggesting NE to SW movement.  But this front is very shallow and really only seen looking at 2M maps.  Pretty non-existent at 925 and 850.  You just totally scared me though b/c kinks like that are actually usually associated with NW to SE movement fronts I think...but the movement of the kinks goes from Gulf of Maine back SW

Hmm... really.  Considering the 850 mb drops from a starting degree 19 or so Celsius, to about 10 or 11 C in 12 hours, I'd say that whatever change this boundary is set to impose across the area... it does extend through those levels.  There are enough products available for free, re modeling at those levels ... and they all clearly indicate a vector change and definitive modulation in the circulation medium as that boundary comes through... 

That said...it's really more of a standard cfront/BD hybrid?  

What typically happens in this situation ...and probably will this time too ... is that the front first comes through from the N or NW, and the wind immediately backs from SW to N or NW at light speeds ... Any temperature adjustment is subtle at first, but ... about two or three hours later, give or take,...that perpetual coastal New England in situ mechanical bias of drilling low level air masses W at least excuse imaginable sniffs the meno that it's okay to do so (haha) and takes advantage...  

That organizes as a sort of pulse or series along diffused secondary momentum shift; it comes more in line with the BD model and NE or E cooler air arrives off the Labrador waters. That's the air mass that can bring the 30 F jolt in extreme cases. 

This won't likely be that extreme overall but it does hearken to the same overall appeal of the double boundary scenario.  The trajectory of the post fropa high is also perfect for a period of drilling E wind as it moves from mid Ontario through upper D.E.M. through over the GOM.  Ooph.  So one way or the other, the wind will cut back to the NNW then end up E at some point probably all the way to ALB and NYC for that matter.  

There's all kinds of extremely nerdy tedium granularitie with these, too. For one, said high is close by and is also weakening, and that limits some of the wind.  That has a way of feeding back on limiting the amount of cold modulation of the low level air mass because it's not as effectively turbulently mixing with SST coupled cold out at sea. Plus, it's moving bodily over the water with enough rapidity to not have spent a lot of time being thermodynamically cooled either... So you in a way you kind of "get away with" having  NE wind that isn't as affectingly cool as typical BDs.   If the high passed a little NE of the present modeled trajectory ... the wind would be more mixing with SST cold death and we'd be breathing fog in both directions. 

It's a two day reprieve ...then if the Euro is right (three cycle's worth now..), we get one of those pancake trough/SW flow ordeals under 15 or 16 C for the weekend.  great.  85/72 sack sticker weather - 

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That said...it's really more of a standard cfront/BD hybrid? 

 

Agree. It's a grazing shot trough the front door, but the backdoor gives it that extra push through New England. There isn't much of a dew drop through the eastern GL.

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Personally ... I admit to being a hypocritical douche about this heat wave. 

In one respect, it would be interesting to succeed the "in-the-books" official 'wave status out of this, such that we can trophy hoist the earliest two heat waves in a season - which may vary station site to station site, but by and large would be true. 

On the other hand, it's getting on my nerves.  But, you can't have the heat without the heat so - 

One thing that is interesting is that the DPs have really been manageable, and I believe the models also busted a bit too rich on that the last couple of days of this thing.  Today''... some theta-e pooling along the compression axis ahead of this sagging front but ... still, a lot of times with these ballooning 585 dm height domes there's 67 to 72 DPs.  We had HI's values a degree LESS than the actual 95's yesterday at more sites than not.  Yeah it's technically hot temperatures but ...those that don't like heat really got away with one on this puppy.  

But it's interesting why the DPs failed.  hm. 

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wow... actually. 

In the absence of mitigation offsets the old '10 after 10' rule of thumb would have FIT and ASH BVY in the way upper 90s and BOS close to a hundo - 

Question is, what are those mitigation(s).   There's also '90 by 9' which we failed so -

Either way, this has gotta be good for convection with a boundary approaching... if we keep up with this unabated insolation oven like this.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hmm... really.  Considering the 850 mb drops from a starting degree 19 or so Celsius, to about 10 or 11 C in 12 hours, I'd say that whatever change this boundary is set to impose across the area... it does extend through those levels.  There are enough products available for free, re modeling at those levels ... and they all clearly indicate a vector change and definitive modulation in the circulation medium as that boundary comes through... 

That said...it's really more of a standard cfront/BD hybrid?  

What typically happens in this situation ...and probably will this time too ... is that the front first comes through from the N or NW, and the wind immediately backs from SW to N or NW at light speeds ... Any temperature adjustment is subtle at first, but ... about two or three hours later, give or take,...that perpetual coastal New England in situ mechanical bias of drilling low level air masses W at least excuse imaginable sniffs the meno that it's okay to do so (haha) and takes advantage...  

That organizes as a sort of pulse or series along diffused secondary momentum shift; it comes more in line with the BD model and NE or E cooler air arrives off the Labrador waters. That's the air mass that can bring the 30 F jolt in extreme cases. 

This won't likely be that extreme overall but it does hearken to the same overall appeal of the double boundary scenario.  The trajectory of the post fropa high is also perfect for a period of drilling E wind as it moves from mid Ontario through upper D.E.M. through over the GOM.  Ooph.  So one way or the other, the wind will cut back to the NNW then end up E at some point probably all the way to ALB and NYC for that matter.  

There's all kinds of extremely nerdy tedium granularitie with these, too. For one, said high is close by and is also weakening, and that limits some of the wind.  That has a way of feeding back on limiting the amount of cold modulation of the low level air mass because it's not as effectively turbulently mixing with SST coupled cold out at sea. Plus, it's moving bodily over the water with enough rapidity to not have spent a lot of time being thermodynamically cooled either... So you in a way you kind of "get away with" having  NE wind that isn't as affectingly cool as typical BDs.   If the high passed a little NE of the present modeled trajectory ... the wind would be more mixing with SST cold death and we'd be breathing fog in both directions. 

It's a two day reprieve ...then if the Euro is right (three cycle's worth now..), we get one of those pancake trough/SW flow ordeals under 15 or 16 C for the weekend.  great.  85/72 sack sticker weather - 

 

 

Good post!  I did overlook the temperature decrease at 850 and I did that b/c I wasn't really looking beyond Tuesday.  Looks like the cooler 850's lag quite a bit and really don't sag southward until very late Tuesday/Wednesday.  Throughout the day today though I didn't notice any major wind shifts at 850 though 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I feel like you want the good CAPE in the graupel zone for that.  

yup... but the DPs are notably higher today.  They've been a weak sauce player in this heat wave up to this point.  we'll see...  but you definitely want sufficient glaciating mass 

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I have a test this evening and just need to clarify something.  In the pink I have written that since angle B and C are in the clockwise rotation they are negative, hence in the equation for Dx and Dy you subtract. 

However, I'm confused with how you know they are in the couhterclockwise rotation to the x-axis.  What tells you if it's clockwise or counterclockwise? 

F7DBF720-50B5-43C4-B21E-27408D06BCE7_zps

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12 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said:

I hope everyone is outside. Nights like these are a gift from the heavens.

Also a gift to the mosquitos - perfect RH and no wind, with swarms greeting my dog and I almost immediately.   The late snowmelt plus May rain has provided abundant habitat for producing the buggers.  Of course, now that I've planted most of the garden, the spigot turns off - 0.22" so far this month and nothing particularly juicy on the horizon.  June's average RA of 5.50" lacks just 0.01" from tying OCT for wettest month here, but without a major pattern change that gap will multiply.  My driest June was 1.22" in 2004, only June under 2", and that record may be in play.

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