OceanStWx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Definitely a lot more sun today that I was expecting and dews tickling up. We are mid 70s with dews near 60 now. Good vertical development on clouds too. Looks localized but some swath will get a soaking. SPC mesoanalysis shows a nice little pocket of 925 and 850 moisture pooling along the border area. It's mostly WAA right now, but if we can couple that with a little upper diffluence I think the HRRR is reasonable. Obviously the 1+ amounts won't be as widespread as it shows, but a chunk of that area would get in on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You really think you're getting 1-2"? We've been here before. It's a classic model bias. I'm just having a hard time seeing the euro QPF. My guess it drops at 12z. a few runs ago the euro was showing a low in ne pa and a tornado threat in nyc. it's been horrible with these systems all summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 I hope that pattern is a prelude to the winter....cool east with nor' easters already in mid summer, while the west bakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: SPC mesoanalysis shows a nice little pocket of 925 and 850 moisture pooling along the border area. It's mostly WAA right now, but if we can couple that with a little upper diffluence I think the HRRR is reasonable. Obviously the 1+ amounts won't be as widespread as it shows, but a chunk of that area would get in on something. Yeah can already see in the Adirondacks how it's like 1" footprint next to nothing a few miles away. Classic convective stuff probably among a larger area of like 1/4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I hope that pattern is a prelude to the winter....cool east with nor' easters already in mid summer, while the west bakes. Not gonna lie I think the fear is some sort of flip as we head into fall, as I keep thinking how long can this trough hold here. But maybe we can persist it another 6-8 months in the means. Hard to say what happens when the wave lengths start to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I hope that pattern is a prelude to the winter....cool east with nor' easters already in mid summer, while the west bakes. The setup now in cold season would be awful. You do not want ridge where it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Great Call Scooter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Uh-oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The setup now in cold season would be awful. You do not want ridge where it is I'm just speaking in a general sense...I'm not worried about wavelengths at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Not gonna lie I think the fear is some sort of flip as we head into fall, as I keep thinking how long can this trough hold here. But maybe we can persist it another 6-8 months in the means. Hard to say what happens when the wave lengths start to change. Doesn't always happen....two of the coolest summers, as I recall, were 2000 and 2009. The ensuing winters were ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 39 minutes ago, forkyfork said: a few runs ago the euro was showing a low in ne pa and a tornado threat in nyc. it's been horrible with these systems all summer Jesus look at 12z lol. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Great Call Scooter! I wasn't trying to be a Debbie, but My gosh....if there was ever a lock...it's how these things act in the warm season. Hopefully the dynamics can force a decent band of mdt rain like it shows in nrn MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Jesus look at 12z lol. Ugh. Great Call looks like this winter will be nowcast city. Been a rough summer for modeling on the whole. Ask CPC about their monthly and seasonal maps,fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I wasn't trying to be a Debbie, but My gosh....if there was ever a lock...it's how these things act in the warm season. Hopefully the dynamics can force a decent band of mdt rain like it shows in nrn MA. There is always the deformation type precip to fall back on later tonight, which most models are showing. Unfortunately for SNE, it may be congrats Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I wasn't trying to be a Debbie, but My gosh....if there was ever a lock...it's how these things act in the warm season. Hopefully the dynamics can force a decent band of mdt rain like it shows in nrn MA. Congrats, me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Great Call looks like this winter will be nowcast city. Been a rough summer for modeling on the whole. Ask CPC about their monthly and seasonal maps,fail Nothing new really, NH summer is always the worst. But I think the more and more you drill down the resolution to the convective scale the more likely you are going to see convection play a larger role in the solution. Not always for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: Nothing new really, NH summer is always the worst. But I think the more and more you drill down the resolution to the convective scale the more likely you are going to see convection play a larger role in the solution. Not always for the best. Appears to be one of the worst summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Appears to be one of the worst summers. Final numbers obviously not out yet, but 2016 summer was worse than 2015 in the NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Getting the good ol' 7-10 split here...some heavy rain just north and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Nothing new really, NH summer is always the worst. But I think the more and more you drill down the resolution to the convective scale the more likely you are going to see convection play a larger role in the solution. Not always for the best. every one of these lows this summer has been too strong and too far north on the euro. nyc tornado threats turn into cold moderate rain while dc gets a deluge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, forkyfork said: every one of these lows this summer has been too strong and too far north on the euro. nyc tornado threats turn into cold moderate rain while dc gets a deluge I went back and found a couple AFDs in the last month already where I mention this same trend for Euro "storms" Huge convective blob into SNE, only to slip slide away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I went back and found a couple AFDs in the last month already where I mention this same trend for Euro "storms" Huge convective blob into SNE, only to slip slide away. Same deal coming this Friday. Wagons south again even though Euro says north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 44 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: There is always the deformation type precip to fall back on later tonight, which most models are showing. Unfortunately for SNE, it may be congrats Dendrite. Can't wait for my high ratio rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully they're moving through buckshot. There's that, and I almost hit a flock of turkeys while I was out running errands...tis the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: I almost hit a flock of turkeys while I was out running errands... Did you run so far away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Uh-oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 They should just stop doing model upgrades (more like downgrades). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Fantastic day in North Dendriteland. Mostly sunny, nice breeze. 73/59. It will be interesting to see if we get that slug of rain overnight. I'll believe it when I see it. 12Z Euro has around .25".... time will tell.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 53 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Fantastic day in North Dendriteland. Mostly sunny, nice breeze. 73/59. It will be interesting to see if we get that slug of rain overnight. I'll believe it when I see it. 12Z Euro has around .25".... time will tell.... Hit 75.3F here. Awesome mostly sunny day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 8 hours ago, moneypitmike said: This is my fall-training for the upcoming winter. All I need is Messenger to start reporting on some obscure meso-model and radar trend that shows SE zones getting pummeled [\b]and me going from a forecast of 12" to a reality of 1.5". wont be happening ever again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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