powderfreak Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Latest HRRR run...I think the convection is over-done in NNE but the wall of rain in PA/NY/NJ hits a brick wall as it tries to advance NEward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Below normal precip locally here over the last 90 days. Here are the 7,14,30,60, & 90 day %'s from normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Repeat of a few weeks ago? 5" in 2 hrs? Lucky me, I'll have caught the capes two biggest rain events of the season. Luckily the rest of the week looks pretty nice as was the week of the other big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 22 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Below normal precip locally here over the last 90 days. Here are the 7,14,30,60, & 90 day %'s from normal. We soaked. We drenched. We want no more. We wave white flag. #frogstranglers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We soaked. We drenched. We want no more. We wave white flag. #frogstranglers We regress this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 HRRR is believeable. That's my concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: We regress this winter? As torched as it looks this winter it may not matter. Most precip that falls may be rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Given June and July, locally as a whole we are just slightly AN. Last couple of weeks have been dry though. But 3 miles in either direction...different story lol. Just how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I don't see anything that exciting. Seems like the best stuff is offshore. That certainly seems to be the trend. I've already trimmed back in S NH, I think I need to possibly even half it again with the next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: As torched as it looks this winter it may not matter. Most precip that falls may be rain oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Given June and July, locally as a whole we are just slightly AN. Last couple of weeks have been dry though. But 3 miles in either direction...different story lol. Just how it goes. Not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 This is anecdotal, but I feel like Wilmington has had a wet summer....contrary to the norm, seemingly just about everything has nailed this area. Very rainy....even a couple of very isolated cells poured here this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Barring any tropical systems or extreme blocking this would seem to be a typical summer distribution of rainfall that is primarily convection driven. I happen to be in the winner category this year. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR is believeable. That's my concern. I'm getting curious how it plays out up here. HRRR is ramping up every run now in NNE along the southern axis of the shortwave moving across southern Canada and the international border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I could see that. Maybe even a bit more. But I see posts about soakings, we storm..etc. Not so sure it may live up to the expectations some have. Always real tough this time of year to get big widespread rains. Usually you want to be where the srfc low tracks. We did have a good widespread rain event a couple of weeks ago...7/24 I believe. We'll see how it goes. Like you...was hoping for half inc too. Euro was pretty impressive. Hard to ignore down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I'm getting curious how it plays out up here. HRRR is ramping up every run now in NNE along the southern axis of the shortwave moving across southern Canada and the international border. There is a little moist axis in there that could support a more concentrated area of convection prior to the lighter rain tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not even sure it's that much outside of the Cape. In winter mode already lol, you are kidding me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Euro was pretty impressive. Hard to ignore down here. We MEH to 2.5-2.8". Not tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: In winter mode already lol, you are kidding me Few of these in here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: In winter mode already lol, you are kidding me You really think you're getting 1-2"? We've been here before. It's a classic model bias. I'm just having a hard time seeing the euro QPF. My guess it drops at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: There is a little moist axis in there that could support a more concentrated area of convection prior to the lighter rain tonight. As usual NNE always wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro was pretty impressive. Hard to ignore down here. Wow lol quite the model war in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: You really think you're getting 1-2"? We've been here before. It's a classic model bias. I'm just having a hard time seeing the euro QPF. My guess it drops at 12z. Oh is that the 00z run? Makes sense. It's only 1:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Below normal precip locally here over the last 90 days. Here are the 7,14,30,60, & 90 day %'s from normal. Wow I know it's been dry on Long Island but no precip!! Just kidding but we have had some sort of rain shield up on LI and coastal NE. I think allot of it is climatological though as we often have very dry summers at the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1.10" July/Aug to date. 1.05" in July was the lowest July precip for PWM going back 30 years (I stopped checking after 1987, though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 21 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: There is a little moist axis in there that could support a more concentrated area of convection prior to the lighter rain tonight. Definitely a lot more sun today that I was expecting and dews tickling up. We are mid 70s with dews near 60 now. Good vertical development on clouds too. Looks localized but some swath will get a soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You really think you're getting 1-2"? We've been here before. It's a classic model bias. I'm just having a hard time seeing the euro QPF. My guess it drops at 12z. Could be, seems right now to match up with current conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Id like to interrupt this enthralling discussion on how much rain we won't get, to let everyone know the Canada Geese are on the move...the wheels are turning...little by little we are heading in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Could be, seems right now to match up with current conditions. Don't get me wrong, I'm hoping for a solid half inch or more, but I'm leaning under here locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Just now, #NoPoles said: Id like to interrupt this enthralling discussion on how much rain we won't get, to let everyone know the Canada Geese are on the move...the wheels are turning...little by little we are heading in the right direction Hopefully they're moving through buckshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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