The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

[Vice-Regent]

10 minutes ago, high risk said:

You can always count on the Canadian model for pure, hardcore  entertainment during tropical season.

My first reaction to this run was rip. The whole setup from the intensity to the H5 configuration is insane altho there is a possible kicker west of Greenland.

[yoda]

22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Someone catch me up. Meh guidance?

12z GFS wants to know what the tropics are -- until about Day 13 in the CV islands - but does little with the system

12z GGEM posted above, but just to say it again -- 91L hits YP hrs 132-138 or so, 92L is in the Central GOM at Day 10 heading NW and developing quickly (if it still exists as it tracks across Cuba hrs 162-192), bombs out 93L (wave behind 92L that is just coming off Africa now) but its likely to be a recurve fishy out in the Atlantic near Bermuda as its moving NW at Day 10 as well

12z HMON does nothing much really with either 91L or 92L

12z NAVGEM has 91L slamming into YP at 162 and entering B of C (southern GOM) at 180, 93L is developed into a tropical system and at 180 is just NW of PR at 180... NAVGEM also has a weird SLP at 180 just north of Cuba as well -- might disrupt 92L if its real

12z EURO takes a weak 91L system into Belize... 92L recurves way out in the Atlantic east of Bermuda... starts developing a new tropical system out in the CV on Day 10

12z HWRF has a weak 91L system into Belieze at 126... weak 92L system just north of the Northern Antilles also at 126

 

[Kmlwx]

If you want a hearty laugh - look at the 12z CFSv2 on the COD website. Has a hurricane make a Sandy-esque turn and slams into the coast right near the NC/VA border. What a weenie model run. 

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Someone catch me up. Meh guidance?

Haven't been following too hard myself. One thing I have noticed though is that the look in the Atlantic that looked promising for EC impact of any possible storm has deteriorated somewhat the last couple of days in the mid and long range. 

[yoda]

Looks meh to me... but I guess he knows better than me

 

[showmethesnow]

The overnight runs of the GFS and Euro are blah to say the least with very little activity in the tropics. I did find it interesting that the Euro, at the end of its run, spun up a system rapidly from a disturbance just as it exited the coast of Africa. Not sure how common that is. Maybe someone that follows tropical much more closely then myself can chime in.

CMC on the other-hand seems to want to make up for it with the tropics exploding in the mid and long range. Even has 4 systems on the board at one point with a 968 mb (strong Cat 2) about ready to slam into the pan handle of Florida at the end of the run.

[showmethesnow]

12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Don't forget the Ukie...996 eastern Bahamas 

Hour 144

Cmc same time. ..

That's actually the storm the CMC eventually pushes into the Florida panhandle. Can't remember how far the Ukie runs out, 144hrs?, if it runs longer where does it send that storm?

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Ukie goes to 144 only

Not going to go back and check but I do believe that both the GFS and Euro had shown a storm there in previous runs (few days back) as well. Haven't looked deeply into tropical for a while now but I did find this time period of interest at one point. Being 5 days out won't take long to know if this has legs or if it is just another ghost storm the models have been throwing out on a regular basis.

[showmethesnow]

34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Ukie goes to 144 only 

Extraping the Ukie it looks to go north of the CMC for sure and with an approaching cf over the great Lakes it might recurve before our latitude. I'm actually rooting for a low to develop near the gulf and throw remnants at us . That's probably our best shot in the next couple weeks. 

Hate to be a party pooper but short of seeing true tropical conditions or something noteworthy I would prefer to take a pass on this. After such a dry start to the year and complaining about the lack of rain I find now that I would prefer if it didn't rain so much. My yard has been so damp and wet for quite awhile now that the mosquitoes are now rivaling Chincoteague Island. Went to mow the lawn yesterday and had them swarming all over me. 

[yoda]

41 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

First advisory out on PTC 09. NHC has it a hurricane approaching the Yucutan by 96. 

Into Belieze at 120... going to be a bit hard to survive that part of YP

[Bob Chill]

Here's my latest take...lol

August is dead for EC impacts. September will provide some excitement with potential and actual tracking but in the end nothing touches my yard. Even though it will miss my yard, I'll be thankful that I had something to pay attention to in Sept because it helped pass time before the first freeze contest starts. 

[H2O]

Hunch tells me that this year any TC we get will be home brew from the gulf.  

[Bob Chill]

I guess I should expand on why I think August is dead...

Around 5 days ago, the long range 5 day h5 means looked ok. The kicker trough seemed to be moving on and a decent ridge sandwich between the western conus and eastern ATL was showing up:

 

 

 

That 5h looks is ok. Not great but ok and not one that would boot everything away. Fast forward 5 days and here's how the period is really going to shake out:

 

 

 

The recurring eastern trough pattern isn't breaking and with that goes our chances. Obviously, until something actually develops, going into detail about the conus pattern is putting the cart before the horse. But to imho- August is pretty much a high chance at a shutout. Maybe that changes in Sept. 

[Vice-Regent]

There is one way to get a TC up here with this pattern but it would involve homebrew in the gulf. A tall order in my book any time of the year.

[Eskimo Joe]

92L will be the only shot we have at a legit TC this year.  If we fail on that, we fail on the season.  

[yoda]

Hey, another 12z GGEM tropical weenie run

Though it makes little sense with the 92L track... moving NW at 96, promptly slams on the brakes... moves WSW from the Central Bahamas at 120 into Cuba by 144 and 156... then traverses all of Cuba through 186... then finally starts moving NW at 198 into the GOM and at the very end of the run at 240 is moving due N about to make landfall in W FL/AL region  

91L is sent to the YP... makes into the BoC, and makes landfall again in C MX.  93L is a fish that recurves near, but just east, of Bermuda

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Putting all my hope and eggs in the 92L basket.  Lets go for Isabel 2.0 with double the rain.

[yoda]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Advisories will be initiated on 91L at 11am. It will be PTC Nine pending recon. 

Disco is intriguing... guess we shall see which camp wins

The system is in an area of moderate easterly vertical shear, and
the large-scale models suggest that light/moderate shear should
continue through the forecast period.  This seems favorable for
strengthening, and the SHIPS and LGEM models show slow, but steady,
intensification.  However, the GFS and ECMWF models forecast the
system to degenerate to an easterly wave over the central Caribbean
Sea, possibly due to dry air entrainment.  The intensity forecast
follows the trend of the SHIPS/LGEM models, but it respects the
GFS/ECMWF forecasts by being on the low side of the intensity
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 13.1N  54.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  18/0000Z 13.1N  56.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 24H  18/1200Z 13.2N  59.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 13.5N  63.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 13.9N  66.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 14.5N  74.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 15.5N  82.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 17.0N  87.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, yoda said:

Disco is intriguing... guess we shall see which camp wins

 

 

This is the fallacy of these BS FTC products.  If/when they degenerate into open waves then John Q Public gets more confused then they already are with NHC products.  Never liked the FTC products to start, just stick with the yellow/orange/red highlighted graphic.

[NJwx85]

[yoda]

^ LOL

This is from the same model that tried to Cat 4 Gert... sorry, not going to believe it at all

[Vice-Regent]

Interestingly enough, there are a few GFS ensembles with a left hooking recurving TC. I suspect we have a unique setup on our hands but it is contingent on 92L sustaining convection.

[NJwx85]

25 minutes ago, yoda said:

^ LOL

This is from the same model that tried to Cat 4 Gert... sorry, not going to believe it at all

A 988mb category one storm is hard to believe? It just shows a slow but steady organization over very warm waters.

[NJwx85]

92L has that look now. I think the fact that it's a compact system is helping it consolidate faster.

[showmethesnow]

48 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

92L has that look now. I think the fact that it's a compact system is helping it consolidate faster.

That actually looks pretty healthy. Looks as if there is little to no displacement with upper and lower level circulation and we are already seeing an outflow. Just checked the latest images as well and we are now seeing new convection pop in the center of the circulation itself which is a good sign for further intensification.

[tstate21]

Well that was fast...

000
WTNT44 KNHC 172048
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a well-defined
circulation in the low pressure area east of the Lesser Antilles,
with the center near a cluster of sheared, but strong, convection.
The aircraft data suggest that the maximum winds are near 35 kt
and that the central pressure is near 1004 mb.  Based on these
data, the disturbance is upgraded to Tropical Storm Harvey.

The initial motion is 270/16.  There is no change to the forecast
philosophy since the previous advisory.  A deep-layer ridge to the
north of the system should steer it quickly just north of due west
through the forecast period, with this motion expected to bring the
system through the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean
Sea in 12-24 h, into the central Caribbean by 48-72 h, and to the
western Caribbean by 96-120 h.  One adjustment is that the 96-120 h
points have been nudged a little southward in response to a shift in
the guidance, and thus now lie closer to Central America than on
the previous forecast.  The forecast track again lies near the
center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and the various
consensus models.

The system is in an area of moderate easterly vertical shear, and
the large-scale models suggest that light/moderate shear should
continue through at least 72 h.  The conflicting forecast scenarios
alluded to in the previous advisory remain, with the SHIPS and
LGEM models still showing steady intensification while the GFS and
ECMWF models still forecast degeneration to an easterly wave over
the central Caribbean.  The new intensity forecast again follows the
trend of the SHIPS/LGEM models, but it remains on the low side of
the guidance envelope out of respect for the GFS/ECMWF. The 96-120 h
intensities have been decreased a little due to the forecast track
showing more land interaction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 13.0N  55.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 13.1N  58.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 13.4N  61.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 13.7N  65.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 14.0N  68.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 14.5N  76.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 15.5N  83.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 17.0N  88.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Vice-Regent]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just when I start to compliment the damn model  

That's one of many ways to repeat LI express. As nutty as it appears, I feel the CMC has a more accurate representation of TC genesis. In light of that, the 500mb pattern will be different as a result of genesis lending more credance to the CMC solution. The blocking high at day 9 is a prevailing feature it seems.

[Vice-Regent]

12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I agree that it may be closer to the truth on TC genesis (and yes, it does feel weird saying that) but that track was loltastic. Pseudo fujiwara with eventual 93L and then a well timed capture as it's getting kicked. Eh...

FWIW the Ukie doesn't get the intensification going until it's right on Florida's doorstep. My thoughts are unchanged after these runs. Def want to see the GEFS. 

In the end, 92L is so far west by Day 4 that a US impact becomes locked in. 93L could throw a wrench but I think CMC offers the most easterly solution possible for 92L due to a confluence of factors such as being too far west to be removed by the kicker and the resulting rebuilding of strong high presure. I haven't seen such a robust setup in a long time.

Again, impacts are contingent on the genesis and intensity of 92L rather than any feature at 500mb. FWIW 92L will have passed through the infamous Hebert Box.

[showmethesnow]

Just glanced at 92L. The convection that we had seen over the core of the storm earlier in the night has now migrated to the north side leaving the core for the most part exposed.The dry air to the west of the storm looks as if that is getting beat back somewhat as the low to the north of the storm is driving a wedge of moister air southward into it. This is a double edged sword because of the strong sheer associated with this low which is quite obvious on the water vapor loop as it tears the tops of the convection off.

At this point 92L, with what is now it's closest approach to the low to north and the sheer associated with it, is probably facing the most hostile it will encounter on its trek westward. If it can stay reasonably intact over the next 12 hours or so I think we will be game on irregardless of the dry air in front of it. A good sign, one I will keep an eye out for today, is if we see decent convention continue to pop up and begin a move southward towards the center of circulation once again.

[showmethesnow]

As I glance at the 06Z GFS all I can say is the GFS still does not like invest 92L. As the CMC continues to hype 92L it is either going to score a major coup or go down in flames as all other guidance says 'Adios' to it.