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The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

George BM

By George BM,
in Mid Atlantic

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Looking back, the GFS failed to develop Gert (That name tho?) multiple times. There is something wrong with the model since the upgrade in that it cannot model tropical lows without erroneous convection.

The GFS was just wildly inconsistent with Gert before it developed into an actual storm. Obviously that can be expected with the models before it is designated but the GFS definitely has not been performing well with the tropics. 

Euro is probably the way to go for now. I'll maybe give the GFS more weight once there's an actual storm. 

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Vice-Regent

Vice-Regent

Posted
Posted

8/14 6z Versus 8/13 12z. I am tempted to call this as not being over yet due to the ridge pumpng mechanism with deepening TCs. Not the first time I've seen this. If nothing more, it expresses the horrible performance by the GFS on Gert (99L). The mechanism of ridge pumping is tied to higher background preasures in the Western Atlantic. That is my hypothesis for now but more research is needed.

gfs_z500_mslp_us_5_6z_14.png

gfs_z500_mslp_us_8_12z_13.png

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

From 5am disco re Gert:

:lmao::lmao:  

The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory, and is lower than the consensus models IVCN and HCCA.
This is due to the HWRF model creating a high bias in those models
caused by an unrealistic forecast of Gert becoming a category 4
hurricane in 72 h when the cyclone will be moving over SSTs of 25
deg C or colder and in shear conditions greater than 35-40 kt.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

06z GFS (along with the GEFS mean) wants nothing to do with 91L on h5... 00z GGEM has 91L NW of PR at 240 moving WNW... 00z EURO plows 991L through DR and Cuba and then brings it back out by 240 making a  left turn in the GOM near the Yucatan Peninsula -- looks like it would be a Mexico threat

EURO also develops another tropical system in the Middle Atlantic, but its going to be a fish... EPS mean doesn't like 91L that much either... going to be a long week

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

12z GGEM doesn't do much with 91L (that's the system above the tropical wave 12z GGEM develops), but really likes the wave behind it... its moving WNW and would probably continue to move that direction looking at the h5 pattern (Day 8 is around 19.5 N 53W, Day 10 is around 24N 65W)

gem_z500_mslp_atl_41.png

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Plenty of thoughts this morning with three areas of interest in the MDR, will share a little later. 

Three?  I only count two for right now... is your third area of interest coming off of Africa after 91L and the tropical wave behind it?  NHC now seems to be pessimistic on the 91L chances per teh TWO... which sucks, but not many recent model runs have been developing it

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das

das

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

THE COD SITE HAS 1 MINUTE FLOATER IMAGERY ON GERT

200w.gif

Ha.

So does RAMSDIS.  I like their interface too.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

My favorite full rez CONUS image is from Univ of Wisc-Madison.  Yes, ladies and gents, that's 12,000 x 9,000 pixels of glorious resolution, just for the CONUS:

http://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/vis/full/latest_full_1.jpg

 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

06z GFS takes Harvey on a recurve, but its pretty close to the East Coast when it does that in the LR... and its the only game in town in the tropics for the entire run.  

00z GGEM develops 91L and slowly moves it north and looks like hits Bermuda... then tries to be sneaky and move west some, before starting to go back out to sea... the wave behind 91 L develops nicely but its movement at the end of the run is NW, so it too will probably recurve... possible 3rd system way out by CV

EURO buries 91L, develops the wave behind it, but recurves it pretty early east of Bermuda, and there is notta in the tropics after that for the rest of the run

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

The "improved" h5 pattern than ens were showing a few days ago isn't looking as good now. The kicker pattern is holding on longer. GEFS and EPS look similar @ d10 and it's not what you want to see if you're hoping for land impacts from tropical. 12z gefs pretty much unanimously shows all fish down the line. Which makes sense because the atl ridge is pretty far east combined with a mean trough in the east conus would support those solutions. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

lol NHC 2pm TWO does tropical lovers no favors with 91L and 92L 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located several hundred miles west of Bermuda.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located more than a thousand miles east of the
Lesser Antilles remains disorganized.  This system is expected to
move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean,
crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.  Some slow development
of this system is possible before it moves into the Caribbean Sea,
where environmental conditions are expected to be less conducive
for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with a low pressure area located a few hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.  Upper-level
winds are likely to become less favorable for development by this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday.  Conditions appear
conducive for some development after that time while the wave moves
westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z GGEM :lmao: tropical weenie run

Harvey into FL and Irene looks menacing at 240 (but looks like it would recurve?)

 

Hypothetical Harvey would probably keep approaching underneath Irene and then get pulled into the EC somewhere because the kicker trough would be gone and the big ridge approaching from the west would draw it in. 

 

gem_z500a_us_41.png

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