Disc Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 2 hours ago, MN Transplant said: Free, and I don't know how they have the Euro, but I'm not asking any questions. Ryan Maue has paid the fees for open-Internet access of the Euro. This includes Weather.us (which he works for now) and his own site here: http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 @losetoa6 I just posted in the main thread about the gefs. Something is very wrong with the ens and lack of spread. It's been happening all season. If the op jumps east then every single ens member will do the same. I don't trust the gefs with storm tracks at all. I expect the same type of lack of spread to happen this winter. Something in the last upgrade seems to have screwed up the gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: Totally agree...it gets really tightly clustered way out in time and plays hopscotch to the op. Exactly. Which completely undermines the value of ensembles. Unless the op and ens are lasered in on the correct solution....and that hasn't happened a single time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Track really shifted west...unless we get it back east this looks to be another bust. Sad because we were looking pretty yesterday. We really need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 At least for the 00z run, the Euro came around to the GFS's solution of a much slower movement of the trough across the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 One would think that with the 11am Nate track, we would get some good rain and maybe some severe risk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 23 minutes ago, yoda said: One would think that with the 11am Nate track, we would get some good rain and maybe some severe risk... you would think that but what I have learned living here is we can get screwed a number of ways...but most often when it seems like a lock..something I shall remember when the models take away my digital snow the day prior to the event...you know its coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Gfs back to a 990mb low. Problem is it stays over land then moves through the gulf too fast. Also GFS is still west of the cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 12z GFS track would make it appear that we could see some severe Monday afternoon... SLP is in E WV at 102 and then moves over the LWX CWA at 108... looks like a total of 1-2 inches of rain for most... maybe 3" in the spots that get some training like around I-81 corridor 12z GGEM is west of the GFS... most precip is west of I-81... total precip is 0.5-1" for most of LWX CWA... 2-3" west of the Apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: GGEM run looks a little whacky but gfs puts down a much needed area wide rainfall..much needed. I'm not even looking for some sort of deluge at this point. A simple 1" of rain would be a welcome sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 I'm not too worried about qpf output on the globals yet. We really won't know what Nate is capable of doing until the storm tracks through the gulf. GFS came in weak and not very organized and still drops 1-3 through the region. Just a guess but I doubt Nate ends up verifying as weak sauce before LF. It may weaken as it approaches the coast but I would guess that a cat 2 at some point during the trek is pretty reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 You also have to remember almost every tropical cyclone has exceeded intensity forecast this year. I think Nate has a pretty good chance to continue that trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 Good afternoon disco re Nate from LWX: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Frontal boundary from the northwest will stall in the vicinity on Sunday. This will result in greater cloud cover, somewhat cooler (but still above normal) temps, and a better chance of showers. Thunderstorms could also develop but given it is autumn now, instability is not as great as it would be earlier in the year. Monday through Tuesday, the big question remains exactly where does Nate go. A relatively minor track deviation (this far out) could mean a lot. A track just south could result in a heavier period of rain, while a track just north could result in severe weather being the biggest concern (though training tropical downpours could still occur). Given the recent long dry spell, it seems like severe weather would be more likely than flooding, but again this is dependent on track. At this point it is best not to focus on exact details which are far from becoming clear. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF, while more similar with their track forecasts in the direction Nate will take, remain far off in timing, with 12-24 hour discrepancies by Tuesday. Bottom line, Nate is a threat of some sort, but the exact nature is yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 22 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not too worried about qpf output on the globals yet. We really won't know what Nate is capable of doing until the storm tracks through the gulf. GFS came in weak and not very organized and still drops 1-3 through the region. Just a guess but I doubt Nate ends up verifying as weak sauce before LF. It may weaken as it approaches the coast but I would guess that a cat 2 at some point during the trek is pretty reasonable. The tornado risk could be respectable if the COC passes just to our west. 1" - 3" of rain with a few mall wedges would be okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 9, 2017 Author Share Posted October 9, 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 091438 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ophelia Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 09 2017 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 39.9W ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 39.9 West. Ophelia is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a turn toward the northeast is expected later today. A motion toward the east-northeast and east is forecast to occur later tonight, followed by a turn toward the east-southeast on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: 10 in a row. Wow. Like a cold snap in March, I’m starting to long for the end. It’s time for winter...or the annual mega torch. Good luck with that. Here's how this winter will play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Fantasy land GFS extrapolation looks like it's about to pull another Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 14, 2017 Author Share Posted October 14, 2017 2017ing... 000 WTNT32 KNHC 141438 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 ...OPHELIA BECOMES A RARE CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE SOUTH OF THE AZORES... ...THIS IS THE SIXTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.8N 26.6W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES ....... Forecaster Avila Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 ACE of 226.0 is not too shabby either. http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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