Bob Chill Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 6 hours ago, losetoa6 said: This could work for us...WAR is in a good position with trough coming east and a gulf low or disturbance shoots north with heavy rain. But alas it's 10 days away.. The anti-cyclonic flow around the HP off the ATL coast looks pretty interesting in general. Almost looks like a monsoon. lol. There are definitely hints of a home brew gulf deal. 12z gfs shows decent circulation and UL energy in the gulf. With the way the year has gone it wouldn't surprise me one bit if a homebrew TS or even cane gets going faster than we think. Either way it would be nice for a front to tap all that moisture down there. We could use some rain no matter how you slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 We could use a good rain event whether classified as tropical or not. GEFS mean precip supports a decent event considering the range. Pretty good setup in general with deep tropical plume streaming north in advance of a fall type cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 2, 2017 Share Posted October 2, 2017 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Yea....this is a super deep tropical moisture feed and it stays in place for days. Pwats are crazy high in the 2.3 -2.5 + range in our yards. Parts of Virginia get a foot of rain. Hour 150 hrs gfs pwats No doubt man. A very good trough alignment is showing up with a deep moisture feed around the gyre in the ATL. GEFS mean 24 hour precip panels upped the ante @ 12z and mean h5 vort/wind panel is a moisture highway. The precip is a 24 hour mean but the potential "event" is multiple rounds over multiple days. Pretty interesting honestly. We see how it goes as we move forward in time. I'm not sure we should be discussing this in the tropical thread but it's probably better here than starting a LR Oct thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Both the Gfs and Euro increased the gulf low strength by a good bit this run. Euro is a downright hurricane Love the euro track. Now we just need to root for a sub 930 at landfall in the gulf. Storm is going to zip north with the UL pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 Things are def juiced up well ahead of the system... PWATs 2"+ starting monday 12z and maxing near 3" in places. Dews in the low 70s... Efficient rainers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Definitely....and if track holds models will probably juice up even more as we get into short range. This is no longer a long range fantasy..we are within day 5 or so to landfall. I was def suckered into Irma and to an extent, Maria. Unlike tracking potential impacts from those systems this seems like just a case of whatever is in the northern gulf come sunday is coming north....a stronger system just ups the ante. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 90L has been officially designated and there appears to be considerable consensus from the global and hurricane models that it will eventually develop into a hurricane before making landfall on the US gulf coast. From there the track typically favors the storm transitioning to a non tropical low as it races up the I-81 corridor. Events like this are ones that can yield substantial rainfall (widespread 7"+) across our area and this setup is no different. It's a shame that we've been so dry recently as the near drought-like antecedent conditions will make it difficult to see any interesting flooding in the urban areas or the water bodies. Normally I'd be jumping up and down at a setup like, especially when some of the mid-range ensemble members are honking big rains, but I suppose that's how 2017 is going to be remembered in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with the broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression within the next few days. The large disturbance should move slowly northwestward to northward across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Thursday or Friday, and emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system over the next couple of days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Wednesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 90L appears to have some broad circulation to it this evening. Wonder what we are going to wake up to. If something can fire under the "center" then we might had a TD in a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: 90L appears to have some broad circulation to it this evening. Wonder what we are going to wake up to. If something can fire under the "center" then we might had a TD in a day or two. It's been a very good year for maximizing strength after TDs get going. Gulf is plenty warm but shear appears to not be favorable but that can change I'm interested for sure. This is a good remnant setup and it isn't fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 HMON? C'MON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 7 hours ago, Bob Chill said: It's been a very good year for maximizing strength after TDs get going. Gulf is plenty warm but shear appears to not be favorable but that can change I'm interested for sure. This is a good remnant setup and it isn't fantasy land. Yes I too am excited at the setup. The only thing we have going against us is dry ground here in DC. We are due for a true 1-2 day autumn deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Euro ens decidedly east of the GEFS and hurricane models. Pretty ripe OHC out in front for the next 4 days Other than land interaction with the Yucatan etc, the only headwinds (literal. lol) is shear in the gulf. Won't have a good handle on that for 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 TD 16 adv to begin at 11am per NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 NHC is fairly bullish. Storm will likely be pretty compact as it tracks northward over land from the deep south. Precip will stream way out in front but the organized winds will be pretty tight as it interacts with the mid latitude trough. Need the center to pass within 100-150 miles of us...I suppose we're squarely in the game for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: NHC is fairly bullish. Storm will likely be pretty compact as it tracks northward over land from the deep south. Precip will stream way out in front but the organized winds will be pretty tight as it interacts with the mid latitude trough. Need the center to pass within 100-150 miles of us...I suppose we're squarely in the game for now... For right now, we need the rain. Winds will be an added bonus if we can get them as you state in your post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Gimme some tropical TOR action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: This is definitely the type of setup I've seen put down hefty totals....when the center of circulation is just coming inland in Louisiana or Fla. Panhandle and it's raining in our yards already at 700-800 miles away. With anomalous pwats, 70+ dews, incredible deep moisture plume someone could get crushed pretty good even given the fwd. Speed assuming current track holds like Euro esp. Exactly. We could get hosed (not in a good way lol) if the front lags because the lift needed to wring out the atmosphere as the plume zips northward is pretty narrow. It's safe to say that somebody in the SE/OHV/MA is going to get trained pretty good. Winners and losers will be close to each other. The most interesting stuff will be close to the center of circ so hopefully the euro is taking the lead on this. Ens spread is pretty narrow for 4-6 day leads and it looked pretty good to me last night. We'll see how it goes in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 12z GFS has the tropical remnants moving right through our area at 126-132 and kind of dies out over us... and fwiw 12z GGEM is a swing and a miss as its too far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 GEFS is decidedly west again. Even ticked a touch west from 6z. If the EPS holds with the east consensus then we can officially declare a model war. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: NHC is fairly bullish. Storm will likely be pretty compact as it tracks northward over land from the deep south. Precip will stream way out in front but the organized winds will be pretty tight as it interacts with the mid latitude trough. Need the center to pass within 100-150 miles of us...I suppose we're squarely in the game for now... I like where we sit now. Want to maximize rainfall and perhaps the TOR threat, but moreso heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Pretty solid cane hit on the panhandle on the 12z Euro. I think it is the most robust Euro run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Pretty solid cane hit on the panhandle on the 12z Euro. I think it is the most robust Euro run yet. Hits as a 965mb ish hurricane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Pretty solid cane hit on the panhandle on the 12z Euro. I think it is the most robust Euro run yet. Nice track too. I'm huggin the run until something better comes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 From western NC to north of Maine in 24 hours. Nice 3-4" stripe along and west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 12z run of the EURO is a decent setup. Much better to have the EURO on our side than the GFS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: That might be yesterday's. Today's has significant amounts west of i81 . West Pa, parts of WV, NY get smoked and the southern apps Yup, you are right. The weather.us data is great, but I have to get used to how the roll out the new model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: Is that a paid or free site ? Free, and I don't know how they have the Euro, but I'm not asking any questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 925 winds are ripping pretty good for a time. Surface wind gust panel isn't available but I assume gusts in the 40's with 925s in the 60mph range (panel is kph). 80mph winds just off the deck over the lower eastern shore. I know dissecting doesn't mean much at this range but it gives some insight on the potential at least. SLP track right over wxwxluvr's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 LWX afternoon AFD about TD 16/Nate The cold front will stall over our area on Sunday while what is now Tropical Depression 16 (to be named Nate if it strengthens as forecast) approaches the Gulf coast. Tropical moisture advection will increase PoPs, and is expected to put an end to our dry spell on Sunday. The remnants of TD16 are expected to move NE along the front and be over or near our region sometime Monday into Tuesday with continuing rain chances. Depending on the strength of the system as it passes, there could be a heavy rain and severe weather threat, but still a lot of variables to consider with this system, so can`t say a whole lot yet. Another cold front approaches from the west on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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